Market Report.
🇮🇱 According to Israel’s Channel 12, President Donald Trump has informed Israeli officials that Sunday will serve as the deadline for Iran to agree to a deal.
📰 According to Axios, President Donald Trump is offering Iran only a limited extension before the ceasefire expires. A U.S. official said Trump is prepared to grant an additional three to five days to allow Tehran to respond, but emphasized that the extension “is not going to be open‑ended,” signaling a narrowing diplomatic window.
❓ The central question remains whether both sides can negotiate a comprehensive deal ending a war that has killed thousands and created global energy disruption.
🚫 Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that “reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible” while the US maintains its military blockade. Iran disputes ceasefire legitimacy, arguing that US naval blockades, vessel seizures, and targeted Iranian ship attacks constitute flagrant ceasefire violations, meaning current arrangements represent continued hostilities rather than genuine peace despite nominal ceasefire declarations and diplomatic announcements.
🛰️ Satellite imagery reportedly shows a group of 33 Iranian Navy fast‑attack boats returning to shore after conducting patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that appears to contradict President Trump’s recent claim that Iran’s navy had been “completely and utterly destroyed.” The vessels are believed to have been involved in operations earlier in the day, including reported attacks on three ships and the seizure of two of them, further underscoring tensions in the strategic waterway.
⚓ Navy Secretary John Phelan was removed from his position effective immediately on April 22, 2026, following reported tensions with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other Pentagon leaders, with sources indicating he received an ultimatum to resign or face termination, though the Pentagon provided no official explanation.
🏛️ Phelan’s removal occurs during active Navy operations enforcing the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, raising questions about leadership continuity during critical military operations and whether policy disagreements affected operational command decisions.
🌍 The combination of US military blockade maintenance, Iranian vessel seizures, and continued hostile naval actions suggests the ceasefire exists primarily as diplomatic rhetoric rather than operational reality. The standoff between Iran and the US around the Strait of Hormuz appears to be “settling in”, suggesting prolonged disruption rather than imminent resolution, creating sustained uncertainty about energy supply availability and global economic implications.
🛢️ Brent crude oil prices climbed above $101 per barrel for a third consecutive session, while Dated Brent—the world’s most important real-world crude price—rose above $107 per barrel, reflecting persistent supply shortage signals in physical markets amid US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff continuation.
⛽ Trump faces political and economic pressure to exit the conflict as gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. However, this is happening because the US energy sector continues to focus on exports, given the window of opportunity presented by higher prices. In an emergency, the administration could force production to be redirected towards domestic consumption, thereby stabilising prices – something Europe could not afford to do.
✈️ Trump has delayed his trip to China amid the global chaos that has erupted.
🌏 Trump postponed the summit once due to Iran war preoccupation and will likely remain equally occupied next month. Trump predicted Xi Jinping will give him a “big, fat, hug” during his planned Beijing visit next month.
🇨🇳 While China loses some advantages from the Strait of Hormuz closure affecting oil imports, Xi’s government spent years preparing through oil stockpiling and renewable energy diversification, positioning China relatively stronger as Asian rivals like South Korea and Japan suffer disproportionately from energy disruptions.
📊 According to data cited from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook (March 2026), China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to exceed the combined reserves of the United States, Japan and Western Europe, underscoring the scale of Beijing’s energy security stockpiling amid heightened global supply risks.
📰 Based on Bloomberg, Xi believes the Iran war confirms America cannot concentrate military and diplomatic resources in East Asia despite 15-year “pivot” promises, ceding regional Indo-Pacific advantage to Beijing and accelerating China’s perceived geopolitical advance over the declining Western-led order. America, historically claiming to lead a “rules-based” order, now sows chaos and violates international law, inverting traditional great-power narratives.
🏦 Powell’s successor brings new ideas to the Fed.
📉 Warsh’s preference for trimmed averages potentially masking inflation realities while appearing to justify lower interest rates aligned with Trump administration.
🧑⚖️ Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nominee, told lawmakers he prefers measuring inflation using trimmed-average gauges instead of the Fed’s favored core PCE index, arguing this method reveals underlying inflation trends by excluding one-time price shocks from geopolitical events or commodity fluctuations.
⚠️ Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave warned that Warsh’s trimmed-average approach could backfire, as excluding extreme readings might paradoxically allow minor food and energy price spikes to creep into inflation calculations, potentially producing higher readings than core PCE despite intended exclusions.
📈 Historical data from Bank of America showed trimmed-median inflation exceeded core PCE in 2019 and 2020, demonstrating that Warsh’s preferred methodology would have encouraged more hawkish Fed policy during those periods, contradicting his current preference for softer inflation assessments.
🤔 Critics worry Warsh will bias Fed policy toward appeasing Trump rather than pursuing economically optimal decisions, with concerns centered on whether his wealth and Trump connections would compromise independent central bank judgment during critical monetary policy decisions affecting millions of Americans.
🏛️ During Senate testimony, Warsh defended against accusations he would lower interest rates solely upon Trump’s request, pushing back against suggestions his Fed leadership would prioritize political considerations over sound economic policy.
🤝 Hassett endorses Powell’s pro tempore arrangement: White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expressed support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s plan to remain at the central bank’s helm temporarily if his successor hasn’t been confirmed by the Senate when his term expires in May 2026, signaling White House backing for continuity measures.
📅 Powell’s plan addresses potential gaps in Federal Reserve leadership if Senate confirmation of his successor extends beyond his current term expiration.
⏳ The endorsement reflects growing concern that Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation may not be completed before Powell’s term expires next month, prompting the need for interim arrangements to bridge any gap between Powell’s departure and Warsh’s formal assumption of the Federal Reserve chairmanship role.
📊 Abrupt leadership changes during confirmation delays could disrupt monetary policy implementation and market stability during sensitive economic periods.
🏢 Corporate:
📈 Despite significant geopolitical risks from Middle East conflict, strong corporate earnings and artificial intelligence sector revival have buoyed stock markets, with nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting first-quarter results beating analyst estimates.
🚗 Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings beat Wall Street expectations on April 22, with adjusted EPS of $0.41 (15.2% above estimates) and revenue of $22.39 billion (15.8% YoY growth), signaling margin recovery and global EV demand rebound despite initial share gains reversing amid heavy capex guidance. Demand rebounded across North America, Europe, and China during Q1.
💵 Free cash flow remained positive at approximately $1.4 billion; however, vehicle deliveries totaled 358,023 units, showing 6% year-over-year growth but disappointing sequentially, raising questions about demand sustainability and production capacity utilization heading into Q2 2026. While energy deployments disappointed at 0.8-8.8 GWh, suggesting Tesla’s energy storage business underperformed expectations and may require strategic focus to accelerate growth and diversify revenue streams beyond automotive.
🤖 Elon Musk announced ambitious $25 billion capital expenditure plans for artificial intelligence, robotics development including Optimus as the “biggest product ever,” Full Self-Driving v15 development, new factory construction, and Intel 14A technology partnerships for Terafab manufacturing.
🖥️ Tesla announced Intel 14A technology partnerships for Terafab chip manufacturing, representing significant strategic collaboration on semiconductor production and potentially reducing Tesla’s dependence on external chip suppliers amid ongoing global semiconductor supply chain challenges.
Market View:
🌍 Optimism remains broadly stable across markets as investors await further clarity on the Middle East conflict.
📉 E‑mini S&P 500 futures continue to trade sideways, currently hovering around 7,145.
📈 However, Nasdaq 100 futures managed to break above last week’s highs during yesterday afternoon’s session, surpassing the 27,000 level and now trading around that area, likely supported by positive corporate earnings.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened again in recent hours and is currently trading at 98.65, prompting a pullback in EUR/USD towards the 1.1700 area.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are struggling to gain traction. Thursday’s opening is once again below Wednesday’s levels, with DAX 40 futures trading around 24,160, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures have slipped to approximately 5,820.
🛢️ Oil prices have surged amid the unresolved situation in the Middle East. Spot Brent crude climbed to $106 per barrel in recent hours before easing back to around $103.25.
🥇 Gold futures have declined in response to dollar strength, falling below $4,800 per ounce and currently trading near $4,735.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to advance. It reached $79,500 yesterday before pulling back slightly to around $78,250.
