Market Report.
📝 Yesterday, the White House published a fact sheet with the keys after Trump’s visit to China. The point is that there is no clear solution to the conflict with Iran. Not only that, Trump has threatened Iran again.
📜 Here is the resolution of the Trump trip published yesterday by the White House:
🔋 Under the proposed framework, China would address U.S. concerns about supply-chain shortages for rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium.
✈️ China also approved an initial purchase of 200 U.S.-made Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines—its first Boeing commitment in the U.S. since 2017.
🌾 In addition, China would buy at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products in 2026, 2027, and 2028, building on soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025.
🥩 Finally, China would restore U.S. beef market access by renewing expired certifications for more than 400 facilities and adding additional approved installations.
🌏 Days after Air Force One departed Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit the Chinese capital to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. The visit comes as Washington and Beijing work to stabilize relations.
⚔️ However, the war is still unresolved. According to AP News, “Drone strikes UAE nuclear plant as US and Iran signal they are prepared to resume war”.
💥 A drone strike targeted the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates, the Arab world’s only commercial nuclear facility, amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
🛰️ According to AP sources, three drones approached the UAE from its western border with Saudi Arabia. Emirati air defenses intercepted two of them, but the third struck an electrical generator just outside the plant’s inner perimeter, located in the Al Dhafra region roughly 175 miles west of Abu Dhabi. The impact sparked a contained fire on the facility’s perimeter.
❌ There is no sign of agreement:
🤝 Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain deeply deadlocked, with no clear resolution in sight, according to reports from Iran’s Fars News. The outlet has published competing sets of demands from both sides, highlighting significant gaps.
📋 Washington’s conditions reportedly include: no compensation for war damages; the transfer of 400 kilograms of Iranian uranium to the U.S.; limiting Iran to a single nuclear facility nationwide; no release of Iran’s frozen assets; and a ceasefire that would be conditional on the success of the talks—with no guarantee of a permanent halt to hostilities.
🕊️ Tehran, meanwhile, is pushing for: a ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon; the full lifting of sanctions; the release of all frozen state assets; compensation for war damages; and formal recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
🛡️ According to Axios, President Trump is planning to convene his senior national security advisers in the Situation Room on Tuesday to weigh possible additional military strikes against Iran.
🇨🇺 Cuba is next?
🛩️ Axios reports that Cuba has begun arming itself with drones sourced from Russia and Iran, acquiring about 300 drones, according to classified intelligence it cites.
⚠️ The outlet says Cuban officials have been discussing using the drones against U.S. military installations on the island or in nearby areas.
⛽ The Wall Street Journal reports that Americans have spent about $45 billion more on gasoline and diesel during the war with Iran than they did over the same period a year earlier, based on an analysis of OPIS pricing data and federal demand figures.
📉 Fixed-income traders are again on edge.
📈 The sell-off in government bonds deepened, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.631 percent—its highest level since February 2025. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.159 percent.
💸 Rising borrowing costs threaten to further expand the U.S. government’s already sizable budget deficit, compounding concerns over inflation with new worries about debt repayment.
🌐 Global Bond Selloff Accelerates.
📉 Government bonds from the United States to Japan and Europe extended heavy losses on Monday as rising energy costs deepen inflation fears. The rout is driving yields sharply higher and stoking bets that central banks may be forced to hike interest rates.
📈 Japan’s 30-year government bond yield surged to a record 4.200 percent, while the 10-year yield touched 2.800 percent, the highest since October 1996. News that Japan will likely issue fresh debt for an extra budget to cushion the war’s economic blow aggravated the selloff.
🇬🇧 British government bond yields surged to their highest in decades as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced calls to resign. Heavy local election losses and emerging challengers are adding a domestic political risk premium to the global bond selloff.
🛢️ Oil Spike Keeps Inflation Fears Alive: Brent crude futures rose to 111 dollars a barrel as the Iran war stalemate worsened. A drone strike on a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates signaled that efforts to end the conflict have stalled, keeping the oil supply shock firmly in place.
📊 Investors Price In Rate Hikes Globally: Markets now see a greater than 50 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by December. The European Central Bank is seen hiking as soon as next month, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates about twice this year.
Market View.
📉 Equities retreated and bonds surged amid the lack of a resolution to the Iran conflict following the Chinese delegation’s visit. Mini S&P 500 futures fell to 7,385 points and Nasdaq‑100 futures dropped to 29,050 points.
💵 The US dollar index spiked to highs near 99.40 and is currently easing back towards 99.20. This has created volatility in dollar crosses: EUR/USD pulled back to the 1.16 area and is now rebounding to about 1.1635.
🇪🇺 In Europe futures also opened lower, with the DAX 40 trying to hold 23,700 points; Eurostoxx 50 futures lost 5,800 and fell to 5,745 points.
🛢️ The barrel of oil in the county reached $112 in recent hours and is now edging down slightly.
🥇 Gold futures weakened below $4,500 per ounce, falling to $4,484 and then rebounding to the current $4,545 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin broke the $78,000 support and is trading at $76,875.
