Market Report.
🏛️ The White House confirmed that a framework for a peace deal has been signed, ahead of a formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. At the same time, officials moved to deny reports that the United States is paying Iran $300 million as part of the arrangement, a claim that President Donald Trump has called “Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!”.
🇺🇸 US President Trump announced that the deal to end the war with Iran is “all signed,” with a formal signing ceremony scheduled in Geneva on Friday. The full details of the deal are not yet released, leaving some questions unanswered.
🇮🇱 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that the “fight is not over” and Israel must stay vigilant in a “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon.
🇮🇷 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the memorandum of understanding (MOU) an “honourable document” if properly implemented. The vital shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz will open “immediately” after the MOU signing. The agreement, not a peace deal, delays complex issues for future talks.
💥 While Iran was still debating whether to sign, Israel launched an attack on Beirut in Lebanon to sabotage the agreement. Iran immediately pulled back and announced retaliation strikes against Israel proper. Trump, eager to get the MoU signed, made additional concessions to bring the deal back on track.
🤝 The concessions included adding a phrase guaranteeing respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon, adding a phrase about Iran and Oman jointly administering maritime navigation services in the Strait of Hormuz, and exempting vessels from transit fees for a 60-day period. Trump insisted that the strait open and the blockade end simultaneously after the announcement, but Iran did not accept this. It was agreed that the process would begin after Friday’s signing.
⚖️ Trump publicly condemned Netanyahu for the Lebanon attack. Iran called off its retaliation strikes. Trump announced the US sea blockade has been lifted. After the MoU is signed, Iran will lift its blockade of the Strait and receive at least part of its frozen funds. After 30 days, a 60-day discussion will begin on diluting highly enriched uranium in exchange for lifting sanctions.
🎙️ In an interview with CBS News, Vice President JD Vance was asked whether Israel supports the current ceasefire effort. The network noted, “Is Israel on board with this? It doesn’t appear so at this time.” Vance responded, “Israel has been a good partner, but we do expect everybody in the region to honor this agreement. There are always bumpy moments with these ceasefires.”
Iran will not support the petroyuan in exchange for the deal.
📝 According to ZeoHedge blog, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s wartime petroyuan toll system represents a significant Iranian concession. Resuming negotiations on the nuclear program is also a concession, though sanctions relief may make the trade-off worthwhile given the economic damage from the US blockade.
🌐 The US appears to have prevented China from using Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar. The removal of the petroyuan toll arrangement leaves Iran’s oil exports still dependent on China, but sanctions relief could help redirect sales to other buyers like India without disrupting the market.
💰 A reported $300 billion reconstruction fund, even if ultimately smaller, could lead to US and Gulf investments controlling Iran’s energy exports. This scenario mirrors the earlier assessment that the US wanted to replicate the Venezuelan model in Iran, with the resulting interdependence potentially advancing collective security and facilitating a regional US withdrawal.
🇮🇱 Israel would be the biggest loser in that scenario, unable to divide and rule between Iran and the Gulf, and unlikely to have US backing if it resumes hostilities, given the possibly irreconcilable rift between Trump and Netanyahu.
Governor of Fed, Kevin Warsh, probably does not announce rate hikes, but even declines.
🏦 Leslie Falconio of UBS claims that the US and Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is lessening the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. Does this mean that the initial agenda, of possible cuts, could be on the table again?
BoJ raised interest rates.
🔁 Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is stepping in for a hospitalized Kazuo Ueda.
📉 Japan’s increase raised rates to the lowest point of where officials believe the economy’s neutral rate is, but there was a noted pause – which had also been previously indicated – in the central bank’s exit from the bond market.
📉 It plans to decrease its bond purchases by roughly 200 billion yen (about 1.25 billion dollars) each quarter until April 2027, when it will stabilize its JGB purchasing at close to 2 trillion yen per month.
Will the Epstein files be back if there is finally a deal between the US and Iran?
🕵️ Former Israeli intelligence officer Ari Ben‑Menashe alleged in an interview on RT’s “Going Underground” that Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell operated as long‑term Mossad assets running a “honeytrap” blackmail scheme since the 1980s. According to Ben‑Menashe, the operation generated compromising material on powerful Western figures that Israel could use as leverage.
⚠️ Ben‑Menashe specifically claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would deploy or release damaging, never‑before‑seen Epstein material—implicating a large number of U.S. government officials, possibly including former President Donald Trump—in order to sabotage any U.S.‑Iran deal or broader peace efforts. He described Netanyahu as willing to do “anything” to derail such agreements, arguing they threaten Israel’s strategic interests.
📂 The Epstein‑Mossad allegations have resurfaced following the U.S. Justice Department’s release of over 3 million documents in January 2026. While no “smoking gun” has emerged, the files show extensive ties between Epstein and prominent Israeli figures such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who visited Epstein’s Manhattan townhouse more than 30 times between 2013 and 2017, and current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom Epstein coordinated a meeting involving a Barclays CEO.
The war on narcotics.
🗡️ President Donald Trump announced that a U.S. military strike has killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang, which the U.S. has classified as a terrorist organization. The strike, supported by the Venezuelan government, occurred earlier in the week in a compound in Venezuela’s Bolivar state.
⚖️ Guerrero Flores faced federal charges in New York for racketeering and supporting terrorism. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton noted that Tren de Aragua is linked to extensive violence, extortion, and drug trafficking across North America, South America, and Europe. The U.S. had offered rewards up to $5 million for information leading to his capture.
🛡️ Trump emphasized the operation signifies a commitment to combat narco-terrorism and stated that terrorists will no longer have a safe haven.
The UK approves new sanctions against Russia and provides nuclear fuel to Ukraine.
🚢 Yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced new energy sanctions against Russia during the G7 summit in France. These sanctions aim to target Russia’s illegal shadow fleet and financial networks that help avoid sanctions and support the Russian military. The new measures will include an embargo on several vessels transporting sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas.
🔋 Additionally, the U.K. will supply Ukraine’s nuclear plants for two years with a deal worth £210 million, involving the company Urenco to provide enriched uranium for Ukraine’s Energoatom.
🗣️ Starmer emphasized that Russia’s aggression poses a threat to Europe’s security and stated the importance of reducing the funds that support Russia’s military actions. The G7 summit began with a focus on peace and security for Ukraine and Europe, with Starmer expected to urge leaders to help Ukraine achieve lasting peace.
🚫 On the other hand, the UK military intercepted a Russian-linked oil tanker, Smyrtos, in the English Channel, marking the first such operation by British forces, as announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The tanker was previously sanctioned for shipping Russian oil. Ukrainian President Zelensky supported the action, urging for laws to detain tankers and confiscate oil. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev criticized Starmer’s actions as a distraction from the UK’s migrant crisis.
Corporate News.
🛰️ Retail investors who clamored for SpaceX shares in its blockbuster IPO received only a fraction of what they requested. Across online forums, many complained of allocations as small as a single share despite seeking hundreds or thousands.
📈 Demand was intense across brokerage platforms. SoFi called it the largest and most subscribed offering in its history, while Charles Schwab described client interest as unprecedented. SoFi, Fidelity, Robinhood, and Schwab all allocated shares to every eligible customer but far below requested amounts.
💸 According to CNBC, some investors sold quickly after trading began. One investor who requested a thousand shares through Robinhood and received just seventeen sold at a hundred and sixty dollars, citing the stock’s struggle to find footing.
🔒 SpaceX uses a tiered/staggered post-IPO lock-up (instead of a standard 180-day cliff) that gradually releases insider and employee shares in increments starting around 70 days after its June 2026 IPO, with full unlock by ~December 2026, while Elon Musk and major investors remain locked up for 366 days.
US government restricts access to Anthropic AI.
🤝 Senior staff from Anthropic are meeting with officials from the Trump administration in Washington, D.C., to address a dispute regarding the company’s AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The government ordered Anthropic to disable access to these models for foreign nationals due to an unspecified national security threat. As a result, Anthropic suspended access for all customers to comply with the directive.
💳 Nvidia plans to raise at least $20 billion in its first debt sale since the start of the AI boom, according to an SEC filing on June 15, 2026. The funds will be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying existing debt. Nvidia currently has about $7.5 billion in long-term debt and generated $216 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026. Nvidia recently announced an $80 billion share repurchase plan and raised its dividend from a penny to 25 cents.
Market View.
📈 US futures have returned to record highs amid optimism over the end of the conflict in the Middle East. Mini S&P 500 futures reached 7,648 points during yesterday’s session, while Nasdaq 100 futures managed to hit 30,800 points; both remain close to these all-time highs at present.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) also gained strength, rising to nearly 99.80 points yesterday. This prompted further declines in dollar-pegged currency pairs, with EUR/USD falling back below 1.16.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures had a neutral session, opening higher but experiencing intraday pullbacks; today, they are opening near 24,955 points, rising. Euro Stoxx 50 futures also saw pullbacks during yesterday’s session but remain near record highs, currently trading at 6,250 points.
🛢️ Crude oil continues to fall, with Brent crude spot prices now dropping below $83, trading at $82.45.
🪙 Gold futures have recovered and are currently holding above $4,300 per ounce.
📉 US bond yields have eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4.50% and showing signs of relief.
₿ Bitcoin continues to recover and briefly surpassed $67,250 in recent hours before pulling back slightly.
