Market Report.
🔎 As we suspected, the ceasefire seems to be broken by multiple fronts, however, the market seems to remain on hold, paused, in the hope that things will improve somehow, with the upcoming negotiations, but, given the information we are getting, things don’t seem to be going in the right direction, let’s look at the details:
📰 The Financial Times reported that Iran is considering requiring shipping companies to pay transit tolls in cryptocurrency to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Responding to the report on Thursday, President Donald Trump warned that Iran “better stop now” if it moves forward with charging oil tankers for passage through the strategic waterway.
📺 Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that President Trump had initially been told the ceasefire announced on Thursday would apply to the entire Middle East region, including Lebanon.
📞 However, the U.S. position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and President Trump. A White House official confirmed that Israel had initially agreed to the ceasefire terms mediated by Pakistan on the day the truce took effect.
📢 Both Iran and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly announced the agreement explicitly included Lebanon and a cessation of hostilities with Hezbollah. However, Netanyahu immediately declared there is no ceasefire in Lebanon and that Israel would continue to attack Hezbollah.
💥 Hours after the ceasefire announcement, Israel launched one of its most intense attacks in Beirut.
🇹🇷 The statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:
🗣️ The ceasefire was declared, but even before negotiations could begin, the first problem emerged – Israel carried out a large-scale air operation against Lebanon, killing many civilians. This Israeli provocation has now cast a shadow over the upcoming negotiations, which will naturally be very difficult.
🔥 Iran also carried out attacks after the ceasefire.
🛢️ According to Saudi Press Agency (SPA), Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline just hours after a ceasefire was agreed to pause the Iran war, hitting the kingdom’s only crude oil export route. The pipeline was diverting around 7 million barrels per day from Saudi’s oil heartland to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.
🚀 Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying they hit several targets including oil facilities of U.S. companies in Yanbu. Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain also reported Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting their oil and energy infrastructure.
🇮🇷 According to FNA (Fars News Agency – official Iranian news agency): “The Iranian negotiating team has not arrived in the Pakistani capital Islamabad and has no plans to attend peace talks with the US until Israel stops bombing Lebanon… Iran has officially informed Pakistani authorities that it will not participate in peace talks with the US in Islamabad until a ceasefire is established in Lebanon.”
📰 This responds to Western reports (mainly Wall Street Journal) that Iran would send a team to Islamabad this weekend to negotiate directly with the US (mediated by Pakistan) the extension of the ceasefire for two weeks.
⛔ Iran maintains as a non-negotiable condition a real ceasefire in Lebanon before any new round of talks.
🛑 Meanwhile, Finance Minister of Israel Bezalel Smotrich announces yesterday that Israel will begin expanding its borders into Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
🇨🇳 What is the view of China on the situation? The spokesperson for the Chinese MFA accused Trump of the current state of the global economy: “You created a global crisis for absolutely no reason.”
🏦 China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), increased its gold reserves by approximately 5 metric tons in March, marking its largest monthly purchase in over a year. This extends China’s gold accumulation streak to 17 consecutive months, even as gold prices came under pressure during the Iran conflict.
📈 The PBOC added roughly 160,000 troy ounces of gold in March, reinforcing its role as a steady source of demand in the global bullion market. China’s gold holdings rose to 74.38 million fine troy ounces, underscoring a continued policy-driven accumulation strategy despite recent price weakness.
📉 Gold prices declined around 12% in March, the steepest monthly drop since 2008, as the Iran conflict strengthened the U.S. dollar and shifted expectations toward tighter Federal Reserve policy.
🌍 The PBOC’s continued buying stands in contrast to selective selling activity by other central banks, such as Turkey, highlighting diverging policy responses across emerging markets. Many emerging-market economies increasing allocations to bullion as a hedge.
📱 Trump sends a message to the leading conservative right-wing MAGA journalists and activists who supported him and now criticize him for this war, including Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson, and Candace Owens.
💬 “I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs. They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! They’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA… They’re not ‘MAGA,’ they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS”
⚠️ These influencers (Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson, and Candace Owens, among others) were key to mobilizing conservative voters and MAGA in the 2024 election. This marks a major public rupture within the MAGA movement, which has deepened since the start of hostilities with Iran, and could be key to the November 2026 midterm elections in the US.
🎥 CNN recently asked former Congresswoman Greene how she would respond to Trump’s criticism, calling her a “traitor” and “deranged” after she criticized the war as “unnecessary” and called for the 25th Amendment to remove him from office, her answer: “You can’t respond to someone like that. They’re mentally unstable” “It’s absolute madness. How can any person that is mentally stable call for an entire civilization of people to be murdered, to be wiped out, to never come back again? That’s what the president called for… That shows there’s serious instability in his thinking.”
📰 Trump also responded directly in Truth Social to The Wall Street Journal editorial titled “Trump Declares Premature Victory in Iran”. “The Wall Street Journal, one of the worst and most inaccurate ‘Editorial Boards’ in the World, stated that I ‘declared premature victory in Iran.’ Actually, it is a Victory, and there’s nothing ‘premature’ about it! Because of me, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON and, very quickly, you’ll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran and, to me, it makes no difference, either way.”
⏳ But how does Trump intend to reopen Ormuz without the cooperation of Iran, which controls it? Maybe this is the answer: Trump has imposed a two-day (48-hour) deadline on NATO for the Allies to present concrete plans for sending warships and firm commitments to secure maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz following the ceasefire with Iran.
✈️ Mark Rutte, NATO Sec, flew to Washington and met with Trump on Wednesday, April 8 (meeting for more than 2 hours behind closed doors). The visit came precisely because of Trump’s frustration with NATO, which previously refused to join the mission in the war with Iran and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
⚡ Trump has repeatedly warned (including in a March 2026 Financial Times interview and recent days): “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
🇪🇺 This situation probably pushes EU harder for its own army, joint procurement, and reduced reliance on US. It could also cause new divisions in the EU, some countries might decide to help, like Poland, while others might keep their refusal, like the UK, Germany, France, Spain, or Italy.
🛡️ In any case, as we have explained on other occasions, the US withdrawal from NATO is probably a bluff, because the US is NATO, and its exit from the alliance would mean its withdrawal and the loss of bases in Europe, which has remained occupied and militarised by the US since the Second World War; and the US cannot afford to lose strength at this time, given its loss of global hegemony.
🪖 In Washington, a significant policy shift has highlighted the wider geopolitical climate. A recent government filing outlines plans to automatically register American men aged 18 to 26 for potential military conscription by December, nearly 50 years after mandatory registration for that age group was first enacted into law.
🇩🇪 A similar event alerted public opinion in Germany. A little-known provision of the new Wehrdienst-Modernisierungsgesetz (Military Service Modernization Act), in force since 1 January 2026, requires German men aged 17 to 45 to apply for prior authorization from the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) if they plan to leave the country for more than three months (whether for study, work, travel or any other reason).
⚖️ The Ministry of Defense insists that the service remains voluntary and that most applications will be approved automatically, but the opposition and thousands of citizens criticize it as a “excessive control, especially after the calls to war of an unpopular political class in Europe.
🕊️ Peace on the Ukrainian front, Putin announces a ceasefire in Ukraine for Easter: it will rule from 16:00 on April 11 until the close of April 12, 2026.
Market View.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have climbed more than 50 points above the 6,800 level, an encouraging signal, although investor anxiety remains palpable.
🚀 Nasdaq 100 futures have also rebounded strongly, gaining more than 200 points above 25,000, a level that had been at risk of breaking yesterday.
🛢️ Oil moved higher during yesterday’s session, with spot Brent crude reaching $99.50 per barrel before easing slightly. However, in the past hour it has resumed its advance and is now approaching $97.80.
💵 The US dollar also offered some relief, with the DXY slipping to 98.65 yesterday before rebounding and moving back towards 99. This prompted EUR/USD to form a recent double top around the 1.1720 area, and it has since retreated below 1.1700, currently trading near 1.1685.
🇪🇺 In Europe, markets managed to halt the early losses seen yesterday.
📉 DAX 40 futures remain above 24,000, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are attempting to consolidate and break above 5,850.
🥇 Gold futures continue to experience volatility but maintain the upward trend that began in late March, trading close to $4,800 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin posted notable gains overnight, briefly surpassing $73,000, before pulling back to around $71,750.
