Market Report.
🔍 As we predicted in yesterday’s report following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, the key to success would hinge on Israel’s response. Far from it, the 10-point proposal presented by Iran—which Trump described as a “viable basis for an agreement”—amounted to a clear defeat for the US. The demands included the lifting of all sanctions against Iran, war reparations, and the recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Among these, point eight explicitly called for an end to the war on all fronts, including against proxies in Lebanon.
📌 This last point would prove crucial. Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, stated in his announcement of the ceasefire agreement on 7 April: “I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon.”
🇮🇱 Yet hours later, Netanyahu issued his own statement, clarifying that the ceasefire would not apply to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon.
📰 According to The New York Times, the White House reviewed and approved Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s post urging Trump to extend the Iran deadline before it was published. Hours ago, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States confirmed that Lebanon was included in the two-week ceasefire agreement.
💥 Yesterday, the first day of the ceasefire, Israel launched what it calls its largest strike on Lebanon as part of its operation Eternal Darkness, rocking Beirut with massive explosions. According to Lebanon’s Civil Defence and the health ministry, today’s Israeli strikes across Lebanon—including central Beirut—killed at least 254 people and wounded between 700 and 1,165 others. The strikes hit over 100 sites in under ten minutes.
🇺🇸 What was the US response? Yesterday, JD Vance told the press: “If Iran wants to let negotiations fall apart over Lebanon… that’s ultimately their choice.”
🗣️ He also insisted that there were several versions of Iran’s 10-point proposal, with the media having presented the worst one. He claimed the “first” draft of the 10 points was likely written using ChatGPT and “thrown straight in the bin.”
🇮🇷 Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the U.S. of violating a two-week agreement, citing a pattern of repeated commitments breaches. In a social media statement, Ghalibaf noted that three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal had been violated, highlighting the deep historical distrust between the two nations: “The deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments—a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again”
🌐 UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks: “The United Nations strongly condemns the strikes by Israel across Lebanon that resulted in significant civilian casualties. We continue to call on all sides to avail themselves of diplomatic channels and cease hostilities.”
🇪🇺 Numerous EU member states joined in condemning the strikes. Spain’s Prime Minister stated: “Contempt for life and international law is intolerable.” Italy’s Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, said: “Unjustified and unacceptable attacks. We condemn the bombings of the Lebanese civilian population. We want to avoid there being a second Gaza.” From France, Macron insisted that “The ceasefire must include Lebanon to be sustainable.”
🇺🇸 Criticism also came from within the US, with Senator Bernie Sanders declaring: “Enough is enough. End military aid to Israel.”
📉 In short, at this stage, we could say the ceasefire has failed. Oil surged again to $97 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Yesterday, JD Vance said oil was coming down because the markets have faith in the ceasefire.
🛡️ Netanyahu has declared: “This is not the end of the battle. Israel is on its way to achieving its goals.”
⚠️ Victor Gao, a Chinese lawyer from Yale University and an expert in international relations who has held senior positions in Chinese international companies and organisations, warned yesterday in an interview that: “Israel will cease to exist if it uses a nuclear weapon.”
🇺🇸 Donald Trump weighed in on the chaos with the following statement:
📢 “All US ships, aircraft, and military personnel, along with additional ammunition, weaponry, and anything else appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded enemy, will remain in and around Iran until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If, for any reason, it is not—which is highly unlikely—then the shooting starts, bigger and better than anyone has ever seen before. This was agreed a long time ago, and despite all the fake rhetoric to the contrary—NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS, and the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN AND SAFE. Meanwhile, our great military is loading up and resting, looking forward, in fact, to its next conquest.”
📰 According to Bloomberg: US Vice President JD Vance will lead US-Iran talks in Islamabad this weekend, the White House said, even as fighting continues in the Middle East and Tehran claims the ceasefire has already been breached.
❓ How to solve the problem you created yourself?
🤝 The U.S. is asking its European allies to provide specific commitments and concrete plans within days on how they will help secure the Strait of Hormuz. This request was made during discussions between U.S. and NATO officials at the White House, Pentagon, and State Department.
🛳️ For clarity, the Strait of Hormuz was already open before the US decided to attack Iran. According to US media outlets like the New York Times, both military and intelligence advisers warned Trump that it could be a strategic blunder to start this war with Iran.
🎯 Now Trump is demanding aid that he “doesn’t need” to win a battle he “has already won”—against a military that doesn’t exist, as it was “annihilated”—to secure the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before he decided to intervene.
🛑 Real risks of NATO dissolution? No.
🌍 Threats of a possible US withdrawal from NATO were also aired yesterday during a visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to the White House. Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that NATO “failed its test” during the Iranian conflict.
🎙️ Rutte told CNN, following a closed-door meeting with Trump, that: “He is clearly disappointed with many NATO allies, and I can see his point.”
💼 However, this appears to be more theatrics, as the US cannot withdraw from NATO—simply because the US is NATO. It contributes over 60% of the alliance’s budget and relies heavily on US supplies. The US will never relinquish the strategic control it exerts in Europe through its military bases. Nor will it forgo the lucrative business of the “NATO membership”, where each new member must purchase a “membership kit”—buying military equipment from US industry—and pay an annual fee based on their GDP.
🇪🇺 Is Europe still putting a spoke in the wheel of its member states?
🇪🇸 Spain’s unilateral action to shield consumers from the energy crisis has put it on a collision course with EU rules.
💶 In response to the energy crisis caused by the Iran war, Spain announced an €5 billion anti-crisis package on March 20, 2026. The headline measure was slashing VAT on petrol, diesel, electricity, natural gas, and biomass pellets from 21% to 10%, expected to cut pump prices by up to 30 cents per liter. Spain also reduced hydrocarbon excise duties to the EU minimum, costing the state an estimated €656.5 million.
📩 However, The European Commission sent Spain a formal warning letter, stating the EU VAT directive does not allow for reduced rates on fuel supplies. Poland implemented identical measures and received a similar warning from the Commission.
📅 Despite the warning, Spain’s Ministry of Finance has made clear the VAT cut will remain in place until at least June 30, 2026. Extending the measure beyond June could lead to an EU infringement procedure and potential fines from the European Court of Justice.
⚖️ The episode exposes a contradiction between the EU’s crisis response calls and its VAT rules, which are designed to discourage fossil fuel consumption.
Market View.
📉 Gradually, markets are beginning to soften again as the ceasefire agreement reached yesterday shows signs of breaking down.
📉 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are now at risk of losing the 6,800 support level, while Nasdaq 100 futures are threatening to fall back below 25,000.
🛢️ The oil market is moving higher once more, with spot Brent crude approaching $98 per barrel.
💵 At the same time, the US dollar index (DXY) is strengthening again, climbing above 99. EUR/USD is attempting to hold above the 1.1650 level.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are opening lower.
📉 DAX 40 futures are trading around 24,050, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are drifting towards 5,800.
🥇 Gold futures are declining again, falling back to approximately $4,735 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin, which surpassed $72,800 yesterday, has retreated to around $71,030.
