Market Report.
🇺🇸 President Trump announced a pause to Project Freedom while stating “great progress” has been made toward a “complete and final agreement” with Iran, with the blockade remaining in full force while negotiations proceed, causing WTI crude futures to test below $100 per barrel.
🎲 Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic returning to normal jumped to better than 50-50 probability following Trump’s announcement.
🚢 Trump’s “Project Freedom” initiative, announced as a comprehensive solution enabling traffic through the Strait, functioned as a one-off special operation extracting only two of approximately 900 stranded vessels from the Persian Gulf, failing to achieve stated objectives.
🗣️ It’s worth reading in Trump’s own words, believe me: “Based on the requests of Pakistan and other countries, the tremendous military success we have achieved during the campaign against Iran, and the significant progress toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period to allow time to finalize and sign the agreement”.
🇺🇸 Yesterday Marc Rubio: ‘As President Trump said, the US holds all the cards. But our preference is for the strait to be open as it was before (the attack on Iran), so that everyone can use it, with no mines in the water and no tolls to pay.’
🗺️ Iran expanded its blockade by publishing a map incorporating Fujairah—the UAE’s eastern coastal harbor—into its controlled zone, simultaneously launching missile strikes and drone attacks against UAE oil installations and shipping vessels, escalating regional tensions.
🚀 A French-owned cargo ship (CGM San Antonio) was confirmed hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile late Tuesday, injuring several Filipino crew members near Dubai, continuing attacks despite ceasefire claims and adding uncertainty to shipping safety prospects.
🛡️ Iran launched a second wave of missile and drone attacks against UAE air defenses Tuesday, with the Ministry of Defense confirming interception of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned vehicles, escalating tensions despite ongoing ceasefire and negotiation claims.
⚖️ Reports indicate internal division between Iran’s civilian government under President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership, with Pezeshkian allegedly describing IRGC’s UAE strikes as “completely irresponsible” and “madness” conducted without government coordination. The information comes from Iranian dissident media outside Iran, Iranintl.com.
📰 The Times of Israel reports that while Iran’s economy is under significant strain, it appears prepared to endure the current U.S. naval blockade. According to the report, the government stockpiled imported goods ahead of the war, helping to cushion immediate pressures.
🏦 As a result, there have been no widespread bank runs or rationing of essential goods so far. Despite the blockade, Iran has been able to maintain relative stability, at least in the short term, with no clear signs yet of a systemic collapse in basic supplies.
🇨🇳 China’s perspective on the conflict:
🤝 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is visiting China, Iran’s largest oil customer, signaling deepened bilateral cooperation and coordinated response to U.S. economic and military pressure amid ongoing regional conflict. Just days before President Donald Trump’s scheduled May 14–15 trip to China.
🌏 Tehran and Beijing seems to be aligning their interests ahead of Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping.
🛢️ For Iran, the Beijing visit signals that it retains diplomatic backing and options as it negotiates with Washington. Tehran may seek assurances on oil exports, financial channels, and diplomatic support, while China could push Iran to de‑escalate threats to Gulf infrastructure and shipping.
📜 China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a “prohibition order” declaring U.S. sanctions against Chinese refineries processing Iranian oil “improperly restrict” business and violate international law, refusing recognition or compliance with extraterritorial American coercion.
⚡ China’s defiant sanctions rejection occurs ten days before Trump’s China visit, delivering a message that the U.S. cannot unilaterally control global energy supplies or pressure Beijing without facing coordinated countermeasures from Iran and other nations challenging American hegemony.
📉 Drop on US Trade Balance.
📦 The value of imports rose 2.3%, driven by higher inbound shipments of motor vehicles and consumer goods. Imports of capital goods climbed to a record level as the expansion of AI data centers boosted demand for foreign‑made computer equipment. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.
📤 Exports increased 2% in March from the prior month, supported by a record level of shipments of industrial supplies, including oil and other petroleum products, according to government data.
🤖 AI is coming for us, financial services.
🏦 Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic unveiled a new suite of AI agents aimed squarely at Wall Street, expanding its footprint in financial services automation.
🛠️ The 10 new tools are designed to handle a broad range of industry tasks, including drafting pitch decks, reviewing financial statements, and escalating cases for compliance review. They target professionals across banking, insurance, asset management, and fintech.
💻 Anthropic said its Claude AI model will now integrate more seamlessly with third‑party tools like Excel, PowerPoint, and Outlook, while also pulling data from financial services partners including Dun & Bradstreet and Moody’s.
🤝 The company is also strengthening its Wall Street ties through a new joint venture with Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman Sachs to accelerate enterprise deployment.
📉 Following Tuesday’s announcement:
📊 FactSet shares fell as much as 8.1%.
📉 Morningstar reversed earlier gains to drop more than 3%.
📉 S&P Global and Moody’s faced notable selling pressure.
📉 Thomson Reuters declined as much as 5.1%.
🏢 Corporate News:
📈 A surge in semiconductor stocks pushed South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index above the 7,000‑point mark for the first time in history as trading resumed in Seoul.
📱 Samsung Electronics jumped 13%, lifting its market capitalization past $1 trillion. After recently surpassing Berkshire Hathaway in value, the tech giant is now closing in on Walmart in the global rankings.
💊 Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill has created another boom in the GLP-1 drug market.
📉 Wall Street expects Novo’s overall sales to decline 5-13% in 2026 due to generic competition threatening injectable sales in India, China, and Canada, plus Wegovy pill’s lower price point potentially cannibalizing existing revenues, creating near-term headwinds despite oral medication momentum.
🏭 Novo announced a $500 million Irish manufacturing investment to meet current and future oral product demand outside the U.S., with European Medicines Agency approval expected later in 2026, while planning international Wegovy pill expansion despite not disclosing specific launch timelines.
📢 Novo achieved a three-month head start over Eli Lilly’s Foundayo pill, using aggressive marketing including subway ads, TV broadcasts, and a Super Bowl commercial featuring DJ Khaled to establish brand dominance and shape consumer perception of oral GLP-1 efficacy and accessibility.
🤔 Investors are rethinking which company will dominate oral GLP-1s; Novo’s head start unsettled earlier views favoring Lilly. Analysts project Lilly may eventually dominate the oral GLP-1 market similar to its injectable dominance, noting Zepbound prescriptions surpassed Wegovy injections within six months despite launching two years later, suggesting long-term competitive dynamics remain uncertain.
₿ Bitcoin is up, and Microstartegy is considering selling.
💼 MicroStrategy shifts from its longstanding “never sell” bitcoin strategy to actively managing its balance sheet, now willing to sell bitcoin strategically to maximize bitcoin per share value and optimize shareholder returns through tactical asset management.
📉 MicroStrategy posted a $12.5 billion net loss in Q1 2026 due to bitcoin price declines at the beginning of the year, prompting the strategic shift toward active balance sheet management rather than indefinite passive bitcoin stockpiling regardless of market conditions.
💰 The company established a $2.25 billion U.S. dollar reserve in December to ensure it can meet dividend obligations on preferred stock and interest payments on outstanding debt, providing financial flexibility for strategic bitcoin sales and acquisitions.
📊 MicroStrategy held 818,334 BTC valued at $61.81 billion at Q1’s end, accumulated at an average cost of approximately $75,500 per coin, representing nearly 4% of total global bitcoin supply with year-to-date acquisitions of roughly 63,000 BTC.
🏗️ Saylor compared MicroStrategy’s strategy to real estate development companies that buy land cheaply and sell expensively, arguing that selling bitcoin at higher prices to fund additional purchases or debt service represents sound business practice, not abandonment of core strategy.
📈 The company achieved approximately 9% BTC yield since year’s start.
Market view.
🚀 Once again, US markets are reaching fresh record highs despite the global backdrop.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have moved above 7,300, while Nasdaq 100 futures have surpassed 28,325.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen below the 98 level in recent hours, reflecting expectations of de‑escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran and a return to pre‑conflict levels. As a result, EUR/USD has climbed back above 1.1700, currently trading around 1.1735.
🇪🇺 Europe is following Wall Street’s positive tone, opening higher. DAX 40 futures have reached 24,700, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are approaching the 5,900 level.
🛢️ In the oil market, after Brent crude reached the $115 resistance level on Monday, prices have since retreated. Spot Brent is currently trading at $108.45 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures are benefiting from dollar weakness, strengthening to around $4,675 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin continues its recovery, currently trading at $81,500, levels not seen since February.
