Market Report.
🇺🇸 Even though U. S. President Donald Trump has continuously stated that Iran’s military has been defeated and claimed that the United States is in a strong position in the conflict, he has not yet pressured Tehran into reaching an agreement.
⚠️ Yesterday, he acknowledged that the ceasefire was “on life support” and was extremely fragile, showing more clearly than ever that conflicts in the area might worsen after weeks of claiming that deal was almost done.
🛢️ Oil prices responded quickly. Brent crude futures increased by almost 3% and reached over $104 for each barrel. U. S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery also surged by 3% to finish at $98.07 per barrel.
🎓 Prof. Paul Craig Roberts, a former U.S. Assistant Treasury Secretary for Economic Policy, said that in his view Iran “prevailed against the U.S. and Israel and could have forced a surrender,” adding that agreeing to a ceasefire was, in his words, “a strategic mistake.” “When you confront them with negotiations, it is pointless because there is nothing to negotiate other than your own surrender,” he added.
📰 The Washington Post’s article on 6 May 2026, titled ‘Iran has hit far more US military assets than reported, satellite images show,’ reveals that Iran has caused significant damage to US military assets, based on leaks from the Department of Defense and intelligence sources.
🛰️ The article analyzed 109 satellite images and confirmed damage to 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment, showing the vulnerability of US bases. However, it did not fully address the impact of destroyed radar systems or the failure of US military strategy, nor did it discuss the over 600 strikes that drove US forces from Iraq. The potential for rebuilding these bases is questionable due to their vulnerability and high costs.
🇦🇪 According to WSJ, U.A.E. forces have secretly struck Iran, including an April attack on the Lavan Island refinery that caused a large fire and months-long outage; Abu Dhabi hasn’t acknowledged operations publicly, but intelligence and imagery analyses point to Emirati jets and drones participating.
🤝 U.S. officials reportedly weren’t upset by the Lavan strike—welcoming Gulf participation while the ceasefire was still unsettled—and maintained close military cooperation with the Emirates, highlighting U.S. tolerance for allied kinetic contributions short of overt U.S. involvement.
🚀 Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against the U.A.E. and Kuwait; Tehran has targeted the Emirates heavily (over 2,800 missile/drone strikes reported), inflicting major economic disruption—air traffic, tourism, property market—and prompting layoffs and strategic recalibration in Abu Dhabi.
📰 Arabs News has published a shocking article discussing a conspiracy behind the U.S. war on Iran, quoting Turki Al-Faisal, grandson of King Abdulaziz and son of King Faisal; from 1979 to 2001, he was the director general of Al Mukhabarat Al ‘Ammah, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency.
👑 Prince Turki discusses the U.S. war on Iran, emphasizing that while Saudis are frustrated with Iran, it is not the root cause of the region’s issues. He notes that Saudi leadership chose restraint to protect its citizens, avoiding retaliation that could have led to devastating consequences for Saudi infrastructure.
⚔️ He warns that had Israel succeeded in provoking a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the region would have suffered greatly, and Israel would gain dominance.
🗣️ President Donald Trump said the United States had attempted to channel weapons to Iranian protesters via Kurdish forces, but claimed the effort failed.
📦 “We gave so many weapons to the Kurds, they were supposed to give them [to Iranian protesters],” Trump said. “But they kept them and did nothing. It’s very disappointing. I’m disappointed in the Kurds, who were supposed to help.”
✈️ We know new names that will travel with Trump to China this week:
🇨🇳 Attention is now focused on China, where a significant group of influential company leaders is anticipated to join Trump during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Among those present are Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Larry Fink from BlackRock, as stated by a representative from the White House.
❗ However, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, doesn’t seem to be on the list, surprisingly.
🛢️ Aramco CEO: The price of crude oil will not fall, even if they open the Strait of Hormuz.
📈 Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the global oil market may not stabilize until 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted beyond mid-June 2026.
🌍 The strait, which usually handles about 20% of global oil supplies, has been mostly closed by Iran since early March 2026, leading to a drastic decline in oil transit. Saudi Aramco has raised the capacity of its east-west pipeline to 7 million barrels daily to help mitigate these disruptions, but this is still insufficient to fully replace the flow through Hormuz.
🤝 Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran for a ceasefire have stalled, with President Trump stating that talks are “on life support.” This situation increases the likelihood of prolonged closure of the strait and aligns with Nasser’s 2027 timeline for market normalization, which requires continued adaptation of global supply chains.
🚢 Even with a quick reopening of Hormuz, it will take months for energy and commodity supply chains to revert to pre-conflict patterns due to logistical challenges, inventory depletion, and the complex nature of global shipping routes.
⛽ Plans against US energy inflation:
🏛️ President Trump and congressional Republicans aim to suspend the federal gas tax to tackle rising gas prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Trump mentioned in the Oval Office that he would “reduce” the tax and suggested it could be paused temporarily until gas prices fall.
📜 However, he cannot declare a gas tax holiday on his own, as Congress controls taxation. Several Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Josh Hawley and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, expressed support and plan to introduce legislation. The current federal gas tax is 18.4 cents per gallon, and suspending it could lower average gas prices but may create funding gaps for infrastructure.
📉 Voter approval of Trump’s economic performance is critically low, with only 25% approving his handling of inflation and prices, and 69% disapproving. This creates urgency for Trump and Republicans to implement relief measures before midterm elections.
🇮🇳 India is also preparing for a global crisis:
🪙 Prime Minister Narendra Modi urges Indians to avoid buying gold for one year to protect foreign-exchange reserves. Modi encourages citizens to reduce fuel use and unnecessary overseas travel due to high gold import costs.
📊 The appeal follows a widening trade deficit and weakening rupee, worsened by the Middle East war and energy shortages. Gold is a significant part of India’s import bill, second only to oil; India is the world’s second-largest gold importer.
📉 Local jewelry stocks declined, with Titan Co. falling by 6.6%, Senco Gold by 10.8%, and Kalyan Jewellers by 9.5%.
🏦 Pimco criticizes daily asset marking in the private credit market:
💼 Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco) criticizes the practice of marking private credit assets daily, stating it does not enhance transparency or accuracy in the $1.8 trillion market.
📑 Strategist Lotfi Karoui explained that while attempts to improve liquidity are positive, structural issues like the lack of true price discovery remain unaddressed. Karoui noted significant price differences for similar loans across portfolios, questioning the fairness of valuations in the private credit market.
💻 A Dotcom-Style New Bubble:
📈 Michael Burry is warning that the Nasdaq 100 Index may soon face a significant downturn after a sharp increase in tech stocks. He compares the current market to the peak of the dot-com bubble, noting that the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 43 times earnings, much higher than the typical level of 30 times.
⚠️ Burry suggests taking profits from recent gains and reducing stock exposure, especially in tech, to avoid inevitable consequences.
🤖 He is skeptical of the current rally driven by AI spending from major companies like Alphabet and Amazon, predicting that even if markets rise briefly, they will ultimately fall sharply. Burry also advises against shorting stocks and intends to reduce holdings in companies that don’t meet his strict valuation criteria.
📊 Since April, the NASDAQ 100 has risen almost 30% with hardly any significant corrections.
₿ Crypto world:
🏛️ Trump has warned the banking industry against trying to weaken the CLARITY Act, viewing such actions as an attack on his pro-crypto agenda. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on this legislation, which has faced delays due to banking lobby opposition.
📜 The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 establishes a U.S. regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, defining SEC and CFTC responsibilities. It includes a “mature blockchain test” for token classification, safe harbors for DeFi developers, and regulations for stablecoins.
🗳️ The House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with bipartisan support, but Senate progress has stalled. Trump demands immediate action to support U.S. innovation in crypto.
Market View.
⚠️ The Middle East conflict remains stalled, much like in recent weeks. Yesterday, Donald Trump described the situation as being on “life support”.
📉 US futures are starting today’s session with modest declines.
📊 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have slipped to around 7,400, while Nasdaq 100 futures have eased to approximately 29,200.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) is edging higher once again, continuing the zigzag pattern seen in recent weeks. The index has risen towards the 98 level, putting pressure on major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, which has fallen below 1.1750.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are opening with clearer downside momentum. DAX 40 futures have broken below the 24,200 support level, currently trading near 24,125.
📉 Euro Stoxx 50 futures are also declining, heading towards 5,800, and are presently trading around 5,820.
🛢️ Oil prices are moving higher again, with spot Brent crude trading above $106, currently at approximately $106.25 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures are also retreating, slipping below $4,700 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains relatively stable around the $81,000 level.
