Market Report.
🤝 Markets reacted positively to the news that U.S. and Iranian officials agreed on a framework to end their war, lift the U.S. blockade on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with details about Iran’s nuclear program to be discussed later.
⛴️ The strait is set to fully open on Friday, but there are uncertainties about its control and potential tolls, which could impact global shipping.
📈 Stock markets rose, with U.S. and European shares up over 1%, aided by a drop in oil prices. Central banks in several countries, including Japan, are meeting this week, with Japan expected to raise rates. Key developments to watch include the G7 summit and economic data releases in the EU and U.S.
📉 A continued decline in oil prices would lessen the risk of inflation and, as a result, the necessity for interest rate rises.
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s Prime Minister announced, that a peace deal between the United States and Iran has been reached. He declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony is set for June 19 in Switzerland.
📣 President Trump confirmed the deal on Truth Social, stating it is now complete. He authorized the immediate removal of the US naval blockade and the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework agreement is a memorandum of understanding.
📰 Iranian state-affiliated media published details of a draft 14-clause memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. The US has not confirmed the text, and multiple draft versions are reportedly in circulation.
🔍 This version differs from Trump’s public assertions about immediate actions and changes in negotiations regarding nuclear and military issues.
🤝 The agreement emphasizes mutual respect for sovereignty and includes a US promise not to interfere in Iran’s internal matters. The US naval blockade will be removed within 30 days, and US forces will withdraw from areas near Iran in an agreed timeframe. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days with Iranian security measures in place. Sanctions on Iranian oil and related products will be lifted, allowing Iran full access to financial proceeds.
💰 The US and allies need to present plans for Iran’s reconstruction and economic development worth at least $300 billion. A 60-day negotiation period will start to finalize a deal addressing nuclear issues and lifting sanctions. Iran reaffirms its commitment to the NPT. The US pledges not to increase military presence or impose new sanctions during negotiations. $24 billion in frozen assets will be released, with half available before talks. A monitoring system will be set up for enforcement. The final deal requires a UN Security Council resolution and completion of preconditions before negotiations.
🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹 UK, France, Germany, and Italy, stated they are ready to lift sanctions on Iran following a U.S.-Iran deal to end their conflict. They emphasized that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon.
❓ Reuters asks a key question: If Iran can control the strait, who’s to say the Strait of Malacca, the Bab el-Mandeb, the Taiwan Strait, the English Channel or even the Strait of Gibraltar might not also be tolled at some point?
What’s new in the agreement?
🎙️ During an interview on CBS, US Secretary of Defence Peter Hegseth was asked how this agreement differed from the previous one reached under Obama, in which Iran had already committed not to develop nuclear weapons. Hegseth replied that this agreement had been secured by bombing Iran, whereas Obama’s had been secured by ‘begging’.
Summit in France following the agreement.
🤝 Trump will hold bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France with the leaders of France, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, and India. These are separate one-on-one engagements, not formal G7 sessions.
🌍 The summit is dominated by the Iran conflict and the newly announced US-Iran framework deal. European G7 members are focused on the economic fallout from the conflict. Trump is using the summit to engage key Middle East players directly. Qatar and the UAE are important mediators and economic partners with strong regional ties. Egypt is a key player on Gaza, the Lebanon fallout, and regional stability.
🗓️ The meetings follow Pakistan’s announcement of the peace framework and the scheduled signing ceremony on June 19 in Switzerland.
Could Netanyahu sabotage the agreement?
📰 According to Israel media, Haaretz argues that Netanyahu, humiliated by Trump’s push for a U.S.-Iran deal, may lash out and set the Middle East ablaze. The terms of an agreement are unlikely to fulfill his promises to crush Iran, and with Israeli elections approaching, he seems intent on taking out his desperation on Trump, Tehran, and the wider region.
✋ Trump has repeatedly intervened to restrain Israel. He has told Netanyahu to scale back or halt strikes because a deal was close, and has publicly stated that when he tells Netanyahu to do something, he does it.
💥 Israel has continued military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On June 14, right as Trump touted the Iran deal, Israel struck Beirut. Trump reacted sharply, saying the strike should not have happened and reportedly cursed at Netanyahu, demanding all sides stand down.
🎯 Trump wants a diplomatic win and to avoid wider war, while a politically cornered Netanyahu pushes back with military action driven more by domestic political needs than by pure strategy.
New Asian Gold pattern?
🇸🇬 Singapore announced a new gold clearing system operated by the Singapore Exchange to handle over-the-counter trades of physical gold stored in the city-state. The system will be established by the end of 2026, with inter-bank trading expected to increase from 2027.
🔒 The Monetary Authority of Singapore will begin offering vaulting and storage services for foreign central banks by October 2026. The Singapore Exchange is also exploring a physically deliverable gold futures contract, and tax incentives for physical gold investments by funds and family offices are being improved.
🏦 Six banks will act as clearing members: DBS, Deutsche Bank, ICBC Standard Bank, J.P. Morgan, OCBC, and UOB. The involvement of major international banks such as JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank gives the project strong credibility and liquidity from the start.
🌟 Singapore has been building its precious metals infrastructure for years and wants to become a major Asian gold hub. Its advantages include political stability, a strong legal system, excellent infrastructure, and a time zone that bridges Asian and Western trading hours.
🏛️ The Bank of England is reducing its balance.
🗣️ Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey defended the central bank’s reduction of its gilt holdings, arguing that quantitative tightening restores the Bank’s capacity to intervene in the future if needed.
📉 He acknowledged that quantitative easing was crucial during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, but said it is now appropriate to reverse the policy with those crises past.
🛡️ Bailey pushed back against critics by noting that many who now attack QE were not voicing the same concerns at the time. He said the overall cost of the Bank’s QE and QT operations is broadly neutral.
📊 He rejected the argument that selling bonds locks in losses, stating that whether gilts are sold or held to maturity does not change the overall financial impact. He stressed that maintaining the right monetary policy and financial stability tools matters for the people of the UK.
China-Saudi alternative to SWIFT and end of US sanctions:
🔗 Project mBridge is a blockchain-based cross-border payments platform using central bank digital currencies. It offers a faster and cheaper alternative to traditional systems like SWIFT and correspondent banking, which are heavily dollar-dependent.
🏦 The platform is backed by five central banks: the People’s Bank of China, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Bank of Thailand, the Central Bank of the UAE, and the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia. It has processed roughly 55.5 billion dollars in transactions across more than 4,000 transfers, with the vast majority settled in China’s digital yuan.
🚀 China is now preparing the platform for commercial launch, according to recent Financial Times reporting. The Bank for International Settlements stepped back from the project in late 2024, leaving governance to the participating central banks.
⚙️ Key advantages include real-time settlement, lower fees reported at about half the cost of traditional systems, and the elimination of intermediaries. It is especially useful for energy and commodity trade between Asia and the Middle East.
🏗️ mBridge represents one of the most advanced real-world efforts to build an alternative to the dollar-dominated global payments system. By settling directly in digital currencies, it reduces the need for the US dollar as an intermediary, appealing to countries facing sanctions or seeking greater financial sovereignty.
💵 Dollar dominance persists due to deep liquidity, network effects, and the fact that most global trade is still invoiced in dollars.
Resignation from the British government.
📝 UK Defense Secretary John Healey resigned on June 11, 2026, criticizing Prime Minister Keir Starmer for inadequate defense spending. Healey expressed that the government fails to provide the British Armed Forces with necessary resources during dangerous times. Following him, Minister of State for the Armed Forces Al Carns also resigned, stating that the government is not meeting the demands of modern conflict.
📅 The resignations occurred just before the government’s plans for defense funding were to be announced, which have faced delays due to internal disagreements. In response to Healey’s departure, Starmer defended his record on defense spending, highlighting increased funding since taking office in 2024 after previous cuts. He emphasized a new Defense Investment Plan designed to ensure efficient spending that supports British jobs.
⚠️ Both officials expressed concerns about the UK’s military readiness in the face of potential threats, particularly from Russia. Healey reminded Starmer of the urgent needs highlighted by recent intelligence assessments. Meanwhile, Starmer faces internal pressure within the Labour Party, with calls for his resignation following poor election results. The upcoming by-election in Makerfield could intensify this pressure.
Market View.
🚀 Very strong bullish openings in US futures following the announcement of the agreement with Iran. Nasdaq 100 futures opened 3% above Friday’s close, trading at 30,550 points, while S&P 500 futures opened 2% higher from Friday’s close, trading at 7,590 points.
📉 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, opening lower but remaining above support at 99.50 points. There are upward movements in pairs against the dollar, such as EUR/USD, which has reached levels above 1.1620 over the last few hours.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are also starting with sharp gains, with DAX 40 futures trading around the 25,070-point mark and Euro Stoxx 50 futures trading above 6,280 points.
🛢️⬇️ The crude oil market continues to plummet, with spot Brent crude now trading below $83.50 per barrel.
🏆 Gold futures are experiencing a sharp rise and are trading above $4,325 per ounce.
₿🚀 Bitcoin is surging in what appears to be a bullish breakout above resistance levels contained around $64,000, currently trading at $65,740.
