📈 Market Report.
📅 A busy week lies ahead for the markets. We have earnings reports from the world’s largest technology companies, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and NFP employment data, which are among the most volatile data releases, all in the same week. That’s not to mention the deadline for trade agreements with the US to prevent reciprocal tariffs.
🇺🇸 U.S. President Donald Trump recently indicated during a press remarks on Friday that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had signaled to him that “the economy is performing well,” which Trump interpreted as an acknowledgment that the central bank may propose rate reductions in the near term.
🤔 We suspect that Trump is wrong, and when a central banker tells you ‘the economy is doing well,’ we interpret that as meaning ‘why do you need monetary stimulus in the form of rate cuts now?’
🤝 Avoided Trade War with EU: President Trump announced a major trade agreement with the European Union, averting a potential trade war with the US’s largest trading partner. Trump called it his biggest trade deal, aiming to rebalance the US-EU trade relationship and strengthen US economic interests.
🚗 The US will impose a 15% minimum tariff on European goods, including automobiles. This replaces the previous 10% baseline and introduces higher costs for European exports to the US. The 50% tariff on steel and aluminum remains in place. These tariffs were not part of the concessions in the agreement and continue to impact the EU industries, but they will be reviewed in the future and eventually replaced by a quota system.
💵 The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the U.S. and invest $600 billion more than previously in the U.S. The EU will also agree to open up countries’ markets to trade with the U.S. at zero tariffs and purchase “vast amounts” of U.S. military equipment.
📊 The U.S. will announce the results of its 232 trade investigations in two weeks and decide separately on tariff rates for chips and pharmaceuticals.
🎙️ In the press conference held to announce the agreement, Donald Trump aired in front of the cameras the issue of immigration that is currently affecting Europe. He stated that the United States had faced a similar problem but now had its borders sealed and was proceeding to return part of the migrant population. He expressed his belief that Europe would eventually adopt a similar solution.
🌬️ He also took the opportunity to comment that wind energy would not work in the United States because it destroyed landscapes, posed risks to the environment, killed wildlife, and was dependent on production from China. Furthermore, he claimed that it was a type of energy that required subsidies. “you don’t subsidise energy; you make money with energy,” he said.
🌍 Geopolitics:
🎙️ The American journalist Tucker Carlson, who has millions of followers, claimed on his podcast that the United States Department of Justice is hiding Epstein’s list due to possible implications involving American and Israeli intelligence services. He believes that if they had any evidence implicating Donald Trump, they would have used it against him during the previous administration, as they did with the Russian Gate scandal.
🛡️ At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Iran laid the groundwork for a new Eurasian security bloc that could serve as a counterweight to NATO. Iran views the SCO not just as a regional forum, but as a practical mechanism for regional unity and global positioning against Western dominance. Iran proposed concrete initiatives to strengthen the SCO, including: A collective security body to respond to external aggression, sabotage, and terrorism, a Center for Sanctions Resistance to shield member economies from unilateral Western measures and a Shanghai Security Forum for defense and intelligence coordination.
📜 This suggests it is positioning itself as a co-architect of a new post-Western security order, where no single bloc can dominate through sanctions, information warfare, or coercive diplomacy.
🇮🇱 Israeli minister Ben Gvir calls Netanyahu ‘morally bankrupt’ for allowing aid into Gaza and demands that the starvation of Palestinians continue “The only thing to send into Gaza is shells,” he said.
🇦🇺 According to The Telegraph, UK Defence Secretary says UK and Australia are “ready to fight together” if China attacks Taiwan. Healey clarified later he was speaking in “general terms,” reaffirming that any Indo-Pacific disputes should be resolved “peacefully” and “diplomatically”.
📉 Market Review:
📈 The markets start the week with optimism following the announcement of the trade agreement between the United States and Europe. This is not because the agreement is inherently beneficial for Europe, but because it helps avoid greater harm. Futures for the mini S&P 500 begin the week at new highs, trading above 6,450 points. For the Nasdaq 100, futures are trading above 23,550 points.
💵 The Dollar Index is strengthening, approaching 98 points, causing the EUR/USD pair to weaken and head towards 1.17 following last week’s gains.
📊 In Europe, markets are opening with an upward gap, although still below historical highs. Futures for the DAX 40 are trading around 24,600 points, while futures for the EuroStoxx 50 have approached 5,450 points but are retreating at the moment.
📉 It would not be surprising if the coming sessions turn bearish as realisation sets in that the agreement signed by Europe is not as positive for European companies as initially thought, and markets technically fill the gap with which we began the week.
🛢️ Oil remains around $68 per barrel for Brent, trading slightly weaker than last week.
🥇 Gold starts the week with modest gains, approaching $3,340 per ounce.
💻 Bitcoin is showing a positive trend, rising to around $119,500. However, it has retreated three times this month upon reaching these levels, so we advise caution.
