Macro-News round-up
Market News
📈 Bowman’s words, suggesting that the Fed will be the last of the major central banks to cut rates, seem to be resonating with the market. Dollar continues to strengthen as EURUSD lost the level of 1.07. DXY index is almost at 106 points.
💴 Japan: Yen at 34-year lows keeps the Japanese stock market afloat. It would seem that there is a tug of war between the Fed and the BoJ. The Fed claims to be in no hurry to cut rates, and the BoJ seems to be waiting for this to push the USDJPY pair lower.
📊 Related Markets: The Nikkei 225 index remains buoyant, weighed by the uncertainty surrounding Japan’s monetary policy. Once again, we are witnessing an artificially created financial equilibrium.
📉 Corporate: Micron, another technology company going down. It weighs 157 Billion in market cap. Micron’s Q4 revenue forecast ($7,400-7,800M) disappointed investors, who were expecting more than $8,000M. This weighed on the stock in after-market trading.
🌏 Some time ago we raised in the report the possibility that rising tariffs in Europe and the US are part of a long-running trade war, in which case the alternatives are Asian industries such as India, Vietnam or Bangladesh. Well, today Blackstone says India has become its third largest investment market, after the US and the UK.
🇫🇷 We are three days away from the first round of voting in France. The second round will be on 7 July. According to Bloomberg’s poll of polls, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally has strengthened its lead ahead of the first round of France’s legislative election on June 30th. The National Rally and its allies have risen 0.3 percentage points to 36.1% support in the poll composite. A leftist alliance called New Popular Front is in second place with 28.5% support, down 0.2 points. President Emmanuel Macron’s party trails in third with 20.5% support.
💶 Related Markets: EURUSD has lost the 1.07 level.
🔧 Remember when we mentioned the attractiveness of copper futures? One of the most famous commodity hedge funds, Andurand Capital Management, has informed its investors by letter, according to Bloomberg, that it is exiting its long crude oil positions and will continue to bet on copper and cocoa after the record highs reached earlier this year.
📈 Related Markets: Copper futures broke all-time highs in May. Cocoa futures have experienced one of the most spectacular rises in history this year. Nevertheless, this week, crude oil has recovered important levels, with Brent crude reaching $86.
🌐 Geopolitics:
📹 According to Reuters, a video-call made by two well-known Russian pranksters, called “Vovan and Lexus”, had led David Cameron to believe that one of them was former Ukrainian President Poroshenko. In the video, whose veracity Reuters was unable to independently confirm, Cameron says, “I think Trump, if he wins the presidency, will support the winning side on the battlefield, which is why this summer’s fighting is so important. Trump is convinced there’s a deal to be made and that’s not the case because Putin wants so much more.”
🛡️ Additionally, Cameron is heard stating that Washington’s opposition to Ukraine’s membership in NATO will prevent Ukraine from being invited to join the alliance at a conference next month. Cameron adds that he does not believe that a possible French plan to send troops to Ukraine is the best course of action since Putin would use them as a target.
⚔️ Yesterday there was an attempted coup in Bolivia: Bolivian armed forces withdrew from the presidential palace in La Paz after President Arce slammed a “coup attempt” and called for international support. Earlier, military units led by recently removed General Zuniga had gathered in the central plaza near the palace and Congress. Soldiers briefly entered the presidential palace after an armored vehicle rammed the door, though later withdrew as police took control. Zuniga was arrested and a new military commander was sworn in as order was restored. Tensions have risen ahead of the 2025 elections as ex-President Morales plans to run against former ally Arce.
🇫🇷 France: According to Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, French President Emmanuel Macron will stay in office “whatever the results” of the early legislative elections. Two weeks ago, Macron called for fresh elections for France’s lower chamber of parliament and dissolved the National Assembly.
