📢 Macro-News round-up
📈 Market News
🇺🇸 US: Yesterday, the Fed’s Bowman said he does not foresee rate cuts this year. She expects inflation to remain elevated for longer and does not rule out raising rates if inflation were to rise, “We are not yet at the right point to cut rates, the labour market remains tight”.
📊 Related Markets: The Nasdaq 100 is recovering from Monday’s falls. It has resumed its course towards 20,000 points, currently standing at around 19,800 points. Once again, it is the high weight of the technology sector that is influencing the recovery. NVIDIA, which fell more than 15% from last Thursday to Monday, has recovered much of its fall in the last few days, rising almost 12% since Tuesday, and its shares are trading at around $128.
📉 Related Markets: China’s markets remain unbalanced. This time it is the Shanghai Composite SSE index that has managed a strong recovery session after the falls of the last few sessions, rising almost 1.5%. However, the HSI index has not been able to advance further than the last few sessions, sideways in the session.
🇫🇷 French bonds are not out of risk yet. Fitch downgraded France to ‘AA-‘ last year, while S&P did the same just before the elections. Political division and unpredictability, along with rising deficit forecasts, were among the factors contributing to the most recent downgrade.
🗳️ According to Le Monde newspaper, the latest Ifop poll gives RN 36% support, the left-wing NFP 29.5% and Macron’s camp 20.5%. Once again, France’s deficit reaches -5.5%. European economic convergence agreements set a limit of 3%.
📉 The percentage of foreign holders of French debt puts the country’s solvency at risk. Le Pen’s promises in 2017 to pull France out of the European Union and the euro shook markets seven years ago. Ahead of the 2017 French presidential election, Japanese investors sold some 26 billion euros ($27.89 billion) in French government bonds, a record, according to Barclays.
📉 Related Markets: The Cac 40 falls again in today’s session. A fortnight ago it lost 8,000 points, and despite the recoveries of the last few days, today it is again in negative territory, in the area of 7,650 points at the moment.
🇫🇮 On the other hand, Olli Rehn, a policymaker from Finland, stated on Wednesday that although price increase may be erratic in the euro zone, it was always anticipated that it will eventually level out at the 2% target set by the European Central Bank.
📉 Market Related: The pro-rate cut stance outlined above may be the reason why the euro dollar has fallen back below 1.07. Another reason could be the risks we have outlined in the report and the capital outflows from the eurozone.
