Macro-News round-up:
#MarketNews
- The British economy contracted by 0.1% quarter in Q3 2023, opposed to original projections of a flat reading. This puts the country on the verge of a recession. The UK is at risk of a recession after Q2 numbers were also revised lower, showing no growth rather than a 0.2% expansion.
- In contrast, other statistics released on Friday revealed that retail sales in November increased by 1.3% from October, considerably more than anticipated, helped by bargain sales. This data also revealed some more encouraging indicators regarding the state of the economy. Shortly after the data releases, sterling increased in value relative to the US dollar and the euro.
- According to Finance Minister Hunt, “there’s a reasonable chance that if we stick to the course we’re on, we’re able to bring down inflation, the Bank of England might decide they can start to reduce interest rates,” the Financial Times reported late on Thursday night.
- Japan Inflation Rate Falls to 16-Month Low: The annual inflation rate in Japan dropped to 2.8% in November 2023 from 3.3% in the prior month, pointing to the lowest print since July 2022
- EE.UU economy expanded: In the third quarter of 2023, the US economy grew by an annualised 4.9%, which was comparable to the 4.9% first stated in the advance estimate but somewhat less than the 5.2% in the second estimate. Even so, this is the biggest growth since Q4 2021. Although consumer spending increased less than projected (3.1% vs. 3.6% in the second estimate), it was still the highest increase since Q4 2021.
- Spain’s GDP increases 1.8% Y/Y in Q3. In the third quarter, Spain’s GDP grew 1.8% YoY. Comparing the third quarter of 2023 to the previous one, the Gross Domestic Product in Spain increased by 0.30%. Comparing Q3 of this year to Q3 of last year, the GDP grew by 1.8%.
- France: France’s consumer confidence jumped from 88 points in November 2023 to 89 points in December. In the other hand, PPI producer price inflation (M/M) jumped from -0.10% in October 2023 to 2.40% in November, reducing the deflationary and recession risk.
Market Summary: - Market-wise, the last highs in equities were in the US on Wednesday, but SP500 futures retreated from those highs. The European market continued to fall, retreating at the open on Thursday from the highs. All in all, it looks like long positions were closed out, or simply an exit from the market ahead of the upcoming holidays.
- Oil is set to close the week recovering to around $75 a barrel WTI, due to a crisis in the Red Sea, due to Yemeni attacks, which is hampering export routes. BP has suspended crude supplies through these routes. In addition, US crude oil stocks show that they seem to have gone from negative, sales, to positive, purchases, pushing the price up.
- The dollar continues its slide today, Friday, losing 102 DXY index points. Consequently, gold seems to consolidate above $2000 an ounce and is now trading above $2050. EURUSD is above 1.10 at the moment.
- The bitcoin closes another spectacular week, almost the maximums of the year and at the gates of $ 44 000 $.
