Market Report.
💹 Shares of Nvidia, the most valuable publicly traded company, popped 5% in extended trading, after its post-bell earnings announcement. Prior to that, shares rose 2.85% in regular trading, pushing up major indexes.
💰 Nvidia reported strong fiscal Q3 earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street expectations, and provided a stronger-than-expected sales guidance for Q4: Earnings per share: $1.30 adjusted vs. $1.25 estimated. Revenue: $57.01 billion vs. $54.92 billion estimated. Q4 revenue guidance: $65 billion vs. $61.66 billion expected. Net income rose 65% year-over-year to $31.91 billion.
🖥️ Nvidia’s data center sales, its most important business, surged 66% to $51.2 billion, easily beating expectations. The company’s best-selling chip family is now the Blackwell Ultra, the second-generation version of its Blackwell chips. Nvidia said “cloud GPUs are sold out” and that it has $500 billion in orders for its AI chips in 2025 and 2026 combined.
🚫 However, the company was “disappointed” that it cannot ship current-generation Blackwell chips to China due to geopolitical issues and increased competition.
🏛️ In this regard, a political clash is unfolding in Washington over the GAIN AI Act and restrictions on exporting AI chips to China. Congress is pushing for tighter controls to prevent China from strengthening its military with advanced chips, while the White House is seeking to remove these restrictions from the defense bill, arguing that overregulation stifles innovation and drives customers to competitors.
⚖️ The executive branch favors deregulation and expanded exports to preserve U.S. technological leadership. The stakes are high: removing restrictions risks uncontrolled technology transfer, while keeping them could fragment supply chains and harm the semiconductor industry.
💼 Well, overcome the obstacle of the results of Nvidia, now we have only the last battle of the week, the employment data of the USA.
📊 The U.S. job growth likely picked up moderately in September, but the unemployment rate held steady near a four-year high of 4.3%, consistent with sluggish labor market conditions: The Labor Department’s employment report will confirm the significant loss of momentum in the labor market this year, marked by sharp downward revisions to nonfarm payroll counts.
👷 Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 50,000 jobs in September, more than double the 22,000 positions added in August, but still a relatively modest gain.
🤖 Two factors are structurally changing the US labor market: Lower immigration and increased use of AI replacing jobs.
📉 The reduction in immigration during the Trump administration has depleted labor supply, with the economy now only needing to create 30,000-50,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth, down from 150,000 in 2024. The rising popularity of artificial intelligence is eroding demand for labor, especially for entry-level positions, contributing to jobless economic growth.
🏦 The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October 28-29 meeting show a divided central bank: The Fed cut interest rates last month, even as some policymakers cautioned that doing so could risk entrenching inflation and eroding public trust in the Fed.
📉 There are growing doubts that the Fed will deliver another rate cut at its December 9-10 meeting, with traders only giving that scenario about a 25% chance. The minutes suggest a large number of the Fed’s 19 policymakers did not support a rate cut next month, though it’s unclear how close the split was among the 12 voting members.
⚠️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the high level of uncertainty could be an argument for caution in the Fed’s policy decisions.
😡 Of course, these apparent changes in the direction of the Fed, moving away from the cuts, have provoked the anger of Trump, who yesterday once again criticized Powell before the cameras: “I would love to fire Powell. He’s grossly incompetent”.
💴 Japan is preparing a substantial stimulus package estimated at over ¥17 trillion (about $110 billion) in direct response to a 1.8% annualized economic contraction in Q3 2025: The package will include cash transfers, tax relief, and incentives for households and businesses to stimulate consumption and investment.
📈 There are discussions the package could reach or even exceed ¥20 trillion ($129 billion) once finalized. This expansionary policy has already affected Japan’s currency and sovereign bond yields, with the yen weakening and yields rising.
📊 An additional point that will make everything more interesting is that today the Japanese National Core CPI will be published.
💹 According to a Reuters poll, a slim majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates at its upcoming December meeting: 53% of economists (43 out of 81) expect the BOJ to raise short-term interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at its December 18-19 policy meeting.
⏫ All 69 respondents who provided forecasts predicted borrowing costs would reach at least 0.75% by the end of March. However, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has urged the BOJ to cooperate with government efforts to reflate the economy and tread cautiously on rate hikes.
💶 In Europe, according to a Reuters poll, a majority of economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold interest rates at least until the end of 2026: Almost all economists (84 out of 90) said the ECB will hold its deposit rate at 2% next month.
📅 A 73% majority (65 out of 89) said rates will stay through the middle of next year, and a two-thirds majority (46 out of 71) expect no further rate changes through the end of 2022.
🏚️ In our opinion, the ECB has cut rates as much as possible given the precarious situation of its economy, especially Germany, in serious problems. However, interest rates cannot continue to fall below the current inflation rate, or they will incur negative real interest rates, which would discourage investment in Europe.
🇬🇧 In UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is turning to the competition regulator to investigate and intervene in sectors like dentistry, fuel, and veterinary services, in an effort to lower prices and ease the cost of living burdens faced by British consumers.
🦷 She is calling for the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to launch a market study into private dentistry practices, accusing them of hidden costs, over-treatment, and lack of price transparency.
⛽ Reeves will also require petrol forecourts to provide real-time data on fuel prices so consumers can easily compare prices on mapping apps and navigation systems starting in 2026. This follows a CMA investigation into the petrol forecourt sector. The Treasury also said it will soon act on another CMA probe into the veterinary sector.
Geopolitics.
🔥 Germany is approaching winter with unusually low gas reserves for heating. According to Clean Energy Wire, the country entered the 2025–2026 heating season with only 75% of its gas storage capacity filled — significantly lower than in previous years. The shortfall is partly due to higher consumption in prior months and reduced replenishment from the EU internal market, raising concerns about energy security during the colder months.
🕊️ New Ukraine “peace plan” drafted by Trump’s team in consultation with Russia: According to reports from Axios and The Financial Times, President Trump and President Putin have allegedly reached a behind‑closed‑doors agreement on Ukraine, largely on Russian terms. Under the reported plan, the U.S. and other countries would recognize Crimea and Donbas as Russian territory, while Ukraine would reduce its armed forces by 50% and be prohibited from hosting missiles on its territory. Additional reported conditions include recognizing Russian as Ukraine’s official state language and granting official status to the Russian Orthodox Church.
Market View.
🚀 A bullish rebound has taken hold in US markets following NVIDIA’s earnings release. Mini S&P 500 futures have risen by nearly 2% since yesterday afternoon and currently sit just below 6,750 points. Nasdaq 100 futures have reacted similarly, climbing toward 25,200 points and now trading at 25,158.
💵 The DXY dollar index surged past the 100 level, currently trading at 100.25. This has triggered renewed downward pressure on currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, which have fallen to 1.1520 and 1.3070, respectively.
📈 In Europe, futures appear to be reacting positively to the upbeat momentum from Wall Street. DAX 40 futures have recovered key support, now trading above 23,450 points, while EuroStoxx 50 futures have done the same, climbing above 5,600 points.
🛢️ In the crude oil market, prices continue to move in a zigzag pattern around $64 per barrel for Brent.
🥇 Gold futures, which broke above $4,130 per ounce on Wednesday, have since slipped back to around $4,055 per ounce.
💸 Unfortunately, Bitcoin continues to post new lows — in recent hours it fell to $88,525 before rebounding to about $92,315. The downward trend remains clear.
