Market Report.
🗳️ Once again, Trump is the protagonist, from the peak in the dollar on Friday afternoon to the escalating rhetoric about Greenland over the weekend. Let’s look at the details.
📺 A comment by Trump about Kevin Hassett sparked volatility late Friday. Hassett had been seen as a leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May and is viewed as supportive of rate cuts.
💬 Trump said “Hassett was good on TV, and I may want to keep the NEC director where he is,” raising doubts about Hassett’s succession. If Hassett is not chosen, expectations for aggressive rate cuts become less certain, which could support a stronger dollar.
🌍 Trump claims the European countries have “journeyed to Greenland” for “unknown purposes” and that this is a “very dangerous situation” for the planet’s safety and security.
⚖️ President Trump announced that he will impose escalating tariffs of up to 25% on imports from 8 European NATO countries – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, and Finland – until they agree to sell Greenland to the U.S. The tariffs will start at 10% on February 1 and increase to 25% on June 1. This is on top of existing U.S. tariffs on European goods.
🇪🇺 European leaders strongly condemned the tariff threat, calling it a hostile act against allies and a threat to the transatlantic partnership. They vowed to coordinate a joint response.
💶 The EU is preparing up to €93 billion in tariffs and other restrictions on US companies in response to Trump’s 10% tariff and demands for Greenland.
🏛️ U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States must take Greenland, arguing that Europe is too weak to guarantee its own security, framing the issue as a matter of strategic necessity rather than choice.
🇮🇹 Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has openly pushed back against Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Europe over Greenland, calling the move “a mistake.” She warned it could fracture NATO unity at a critical moment.
🪖 While Meloni said she supports a U.S. focus on the Arctic, she emphasized that European troop deployments are aimed at countering hostile actors, not confronting Washington.
😂 “Greenland campaign” jokes are mainly circulating in meme pages, satire groups, and social posts mocking the tiny scale of the deployment (about 13–15 soldiers) and its 44‑hour duration
🕵️ On January 16, images circulating online purported to show German soldiers arriving in Greenland; the next day, January 17, President Trump announced additional tariffs on Germany; and by January 18 the same soldiers were reported to have departed Greenland.
👽 In any case, in London we have more serious matters to concern ourselves with, such as the market impact that the announcement of extraterrestrial life could have. This is not a joke.
🏦 A former senior analyst at the Bank of England has called on Governor Andrew Bailey to develop contingency plans in case an official announcement confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life.
⚠️ The analyst, Helen McCaw, warns that confirmation of technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) would likely trigger ontological shock.
📉 Such a disclosure could cause severe market disruption, including:
⚠️ Extreme price volatility and loss of confidence in traditional asset pricing Potential bank failures as people rush to physical gold, precious metals, government bonds, or cryptocurrencies, Unprecedented runs on banks and payment system collapses, and civil unrest within hours of clear evidence.
🔎 The analyst, Helen McCaw, warns that confirmation of technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) would likely trigger ontological shock. McCaw points to recent developments, including statements from senior U.S. officials and ongoing declassification efforts, as evidence that governments can no longer dismiss the topic.
🌐 One of the interesting events of the week will be the Akelarre summit of the World Economic Forum.
🗣️ This year’s theme at Davos is “The Spirit of Dialogue”, but it looks set to be tested by rough rhetoric from world leaders like President Trump, given the geopolitical pressures with which we began the year.
📘 The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risk Report warned that “rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are under siege in a new era in which trade, finance and technology are wielded as weapons of influence.”
🎤 key speakers at Davos this year include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who are likely to emphasize the importance of NATO as it faces significant challenges.
📊 It is interesting to note the decline in relevance of these events, given the lack of popular support in the countries of origin of these leaders. Both Von der Leyen and Macron have faced strong criticism and political pressure in Europe and, according to the most recent polls, do not have the backing of the electorate.
🏛️ The debate over the independence of central banks is also set to be a hot topic, with the author noting the “extremely grave” situation around the U.S. Department of Justice’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
🤖 And finally, the competition over cutting-edge AI hardware has become a core part of the broader U.S.-China technological and economic rivalry.
🧠 In late 2025, the U.S. government approved conditional exports of Nvidia’s advanced H200 AI accelerators to selected Chinese customers, after previously banning them over national security concerns. This approval came with tight rules like case-by-case licensing, routing through U.S. territory for inspection, and a 25% tariff.
🚫 In January 2026, Chinese customs officials were instructed to block H200 chip imports and warned domestic companies against purchasing them unless absolutely necessary. This effectively negates the U.S. approval and signals China’s intent to restrict access.
🏭 Beijing is trying to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and promote domestic alternatives. Allowing unrestricted access to the powerful H200 chips would undercut this goal. China may also be using the H200 issue as leverage in broader tech and trade negotiations with the U.S.
🔁 This is the latest episode in the ongoing U.S.-China battle over advanced AI chips. Since 2022, the U.S. has tightened controls, forcing Nvidia to create downgraded “China-only” chips, which China has also discouraged using.
📉 The practical implications include short-term revenue losses for Nvidia in China, increased pressure on Chinese AI firms to rely on domestic accelerators.
⏳ Don’t forget that we began discussing this possible scenario months ago, as early as September 2025, proving once again that our reports tend to be on the right track well in advance.
Geopolitics.
🛫 The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Lincoln is expected to reach the Middle East within five days, as Washington also deploys additional F‑15 fighter jets to the region.
⚔️ Iran is reportedly preparing for a potential attack, with the country’s president warning that any aggression against the Supreme Leader would be treated as an “all‑out war,” underscoring sharply escalating tensions.
🛡️ Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark and both are members of NATO, so an attack on Greenland could be seen as an attack on all NATO members under Article 5.
🧭 Greenland is strategically important to the U.S. for two main reasons:
🚢 Trade – Greenland controls the entrance to the Northwest Passage, a potential new global trade route that would be shorter than going through the Panama or Suez Canals.
🚨 National security – Greenland’s location allows its radar systems to provide early warning of missile launches from Russia, giving the U.S. critical extra time to respond.
💎 Greenland also has vast untapped natural resources, including oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and precious metals, making it an economic prize.
🤝 The U.S. could try to get Greenland to declare independence from Denmark, then make a deal to provide financial aid and military protection in exchange for exclusive access. However, any U.S. attempt to forcibly take Greenland could risk a conflict with NATO allies, potentially escalating into a wider war.
❓ In a moment of extreme delirium, and with a dramatic turn of events, could we see a future Europe that, given US hostilities on its territories, resorts to military alliances with Russia to protect its integrity? It would undoubtedly be the most paradoxical scenario imaginable, given the anti-Russian narrative of European bureaucrats in recent years.
Market View.
📉 Bullish patterns have failed across the main US indices, following new geopolitical developments that have intensified trade tensions between major economic blocs. E‑mini S&P 500 futures are falling towards the 6,900‑point area, pointing to a decisively bearish start to the week. Nasdaq 100 futures are also under pressure, dropping to around 25,350 points.
💵 The US Dollar Index remains relatively strong after Trump’s comments on Friday, suggesting uncertainty over Jerome Powell’s successor at the Federal Reserve and, therefore, over the future direction of US monetary policy. The DXY climbed above 99.40 before easing slightly to around 99.20. This has added volatility to major currency pairs, with EUR/USD rebounding back above 1.16, currently trading near 1.1625.
🇪🇺 Europe has also been hit hard amid geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. DAX 40 futures opened with a bearish gap of nearly 400 points, currently trading around 25,070 points. Euro Stoxx 50 futures followed a similar pattern, opening sharply lower and falling to around 5,940 points.
🛢️ The oil market remains range‑bound, with Brent crude hovering around $63.75 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures have surged to new all‑time highs, approaching $4,700 per ounce, and are currently holding near $4,670 per ounce.
₿ Bitcoin, which posted a strong recovery last week, has once again come under pressure, slipping back below $95,000 in recent hours and now searching for support around the $92,730 level.
