Market Report.
📊 Today, even financial media are focusing on the conflict between Israel and Iran and its potential to shake the markets, which—other than crude oil—seem to remain stable for now, awaiting this week’s central bank interest rate decisions.
⚠️ Therefore, today, our market report will focus on the key aspects of the conflict.
🌊 Iran may have begun blocking the Strait of Hormuz, as it had promised to do in the event of aggression. Reports indicate that three ships are on fire in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. As we have mentioned in previous reports, this is the export route for approximately one-third of the world’s crude oil and 20% of its gas. This could unleash chaos in the energy markets, triggering new waves of inflation.
🔥 The probability of a disastrous event dragging the U.S. into war is increasing as pressure mounts on the U.S. president. Israel’s ambassador in Washington warns, “Expect a surprise this week regarding the attack on Iran,” reports Al Arabiya.
🛑 In this context, eight U.S. senators have introduced a bill to prevent the United States from joining Israel’s war against Iran.
🤝 Marco Rubio (U.S. Secretary of State), David Lammy (UK Foreign Secretary), and Jean-Noël Barrot (French Foreign Minister) have publicly emphasised the need for a diplomatic approach to halt Iran’s nuclear programme.
💬 According to the Jerusalem Post and Axios, Trump will attempt a final agreement with Iran before authorising bunker-busting missiles for Israel and joining the war. If the complete cessation of the nuclear programme cannot be guaranteed, the U.S. would intervene directly.
🕊️ Meanwhile, Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, has publicly stated that the U.S. intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that was suspended in 2003.” This statement was made during her testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee and has been widely circulated in major media outlets and official documents.
📽️ Numerous clips of U.S. politicians and Netanyahu are going viral, in which, over the years, they have declared to the media or Congress that “Iran is just months away from developing nuclear weapons.” However, these claims did not appear to be true at the time, and the current rhetoric may simply echo those who have long anticipated this war.
Public voices supporting Trump are starting to divide as they foresee the U.S. being drawn, once again, into a foreign war with an unpredictable outcome.
😡 Trump has called Tucker Carlson, the journalist who has publicly supported him for years, a “lunatic” on social media. Carlson, in an interview with Steve Bannon, said: “I think Trump is a deeply human and kind person, but I fear my country will be weakened by this (the conflict with Iran), and I think we will see the end of the American empire. This is a perfect way to sink the USS America on the shores of Iran. I also think this will effectively end Trump’s presidency.”
🗣️ Owen Shroyer, presenter of The War Room on InfoWars, a media outlet that has strongly supported Trump over the years, claims: “If Trump openly joins Netanyahu in the war against Iran, the MAGA coalition will split in two, and Trump’s presidency will be a complete failure. There will be nothing left to say about this presidency and America First.”
❓ Could the conflict actually be a trap? Some suggest that the Israel-Iran conflict may be masking a deliberate strategy. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran scheduled in Oman, which seemed to promise progress, may have been used as a mechanism to instil a false sense of security in Iran, minimising the risk of attacks. However, last Friday’s Israeli attack, which eliminated key military leaders and scientists involved in the nuclear negotiations, raised doubts. Although Trump acknowledged being informed of the attack (without intervening directly), this event raises concerns about a possible conspiracy between Washington and Tel Aviv to weaken the Iranian regime. If such accusations are confirmed, they could significantly erode Trump’s credibility, affecting both his promise to “put America first” and his viability in future international agreements.
⚔️ This policy of military intervention mirrors the one that initiated the war in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban regime, only for the same regime to retake power 20 years later after a clumsy withdrawal from the country, leaving behind intact U.S. weaponry in the hands of the very groups it sought to combat.
🛢️ On a related note, the Pakistani-British historian Tariq Ali stated: “The main objective of destabilising Iran is to extract concessions. And these are not limited to nuclear reactors. I believe there is a more serious plan: preventing Iran, as a sovereign state, from negotiating and selling oil and gas directly to China. They want the U.S. to be the power that determines who sells fuel to whom and under what conditions.”
🚨 Meanwhile, both China and the U.S. have issued respective alerts. The Chinese embassy in Israel has advised Chinese citizens to leave Israel immediately via land border crossings as soon as possible. For its part, Trump ordered the evacuation of Tehran last night.
🌍 Key powers in the Middle East have also spoken out about the conflict. If yesterday we mentioned Pakistan’s threats to destroy Israel should Iran be attacked with nuclear weapons, today we know that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently issued a statement warning that Israel, unconditionally backed by the West, might realise the consequences of its actions “too late.” In his speech following a cabinet meeting on 16 June 2025, Erdogan criticised Israel’s military operations against Iran and Gaza, attributing Israel’s actions to its dependence on Western support and warning of serious future consequences.
📈 U.S. futures continue to climb to historic highs despite geopolitical uncertainty.
📉 S&P 500 futures have fallen slightly in recent hours due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran but remain higher compared to last week, currently standing above 6,090 points. Similarly, Nasdaq 100 futures are trading above 22,100 points.
🇪🇺 In European markets, the situation is different.
💱 This time, European futures have failed to recover. We suspect the cause may be fears that the Federal Reserve will commit more seriously to new rate cuts, weakening the dollar and further strengthening the euro, thereby hurting European exports. DAX 40 futures are trading below yesterday’s levels, which had approached 23,700 points, and are currently attempting to advance towards 23,545 points. Meanwhile, Eurostoxx 50 futures, which had neared 5,350 points yesterday, are trading at 5,300 points today.
💵 The dollar remains weak and has failed to regain the 98.50 level, currently trading at 98.10.
💶 The EUR/USD pair, which surpassed 1.16 yesterday, has retreated to the current level of 1.1570.
🛢️ Crude oil continues to show volatility due to the Middle East conflict.
📊 In recent hours, Brent crude approached $74.80 per barrel but has retreated to its current level of $72.95.
📉 The Gold futures market has seen some overnight volatility but continues to cool after last week’s gains, currently trading at $3,405.
💸 Bitcoin has pulled back from yesterday’s highs but remains above $106,800, a support zone according to our charts.
