📈 Market Report.

🌞 We are back with our daily report after a short summer break, but we are back stronger than ever.

📉 The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed moderate U.S. inflation in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an aggressive half-point cut was possible. Traders are pricing in a 99.9% chance of a quarter-percentage point cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting, following Bessent’s comments that the Fed could justify a larger cut due to a weakening job market. Trump has criticized last year’s rate cuts as politically motivated, but Bessent argued that rates are too high and should be 150-175 basis points lower.

📊 The expected rate cuts would drop the benchmark rate from the current 4.25%-4.5% range to around 3%, which is considered a “neutral” stance by the Fed. Trump is evaluating eleven people to be the Fed head. Federal Reserve officials, an economic advisor from the Bush administration, David Zervos, the chief market strategist at Jefferies, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock are on the list of possible nominations.

💰 Bitcoin hit a record high on Thursday as increasing expectations for easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The world’s largest crypto-asset by market capitalization climbed as much as 0.9% to $124,002.49. On the day, the second largest crypto-token ether hit $4,780.04, the highest level since late 2021. Bitcoin’s rally is being powered by increasing certainty of Fed rate cuts, sustained institutional buying, and moves by the Trump administration to ease investment in crypto assets.

📈 Bitcoin has risen nearly 32% so far in 2025 on the back of long-sought regulatory wins for the sector following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump has called himself the “crypto president,” and his family has made a series of forays into the sector over the past year.

🏦 An executive order last week paved the way to allow crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts, highlighting an increasingly favorable regulatory environment in the United States. Crypto has scored multiple regulatory wins in the U.S. over 2025, including the passage of stablecoin regulations and the U.S. securities regulator’s move to overhaul regulations to accommodate the asset class.

🇬🇧 The UK economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, expanding 0.3% compared to the 0.1% growth forecast by economists. The stronger-than-expected economic performance caused the pound to rise. However, a survey of British estate agents indicated a more widespread decline in UK house prices than at any time in the past year.

🇨🇳 China’s new yuan loans contracted in July for the first time in 20 years, falling well short of analysts’ forecasts, pointing to weak private sector demand as Beijing tries to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S. New yuan loans contracted by 50 billion yuan in July, marking the first contraction since July 2005 and the largest monthly decline since December 1999. Analysts had expected 300 billion yuan in new loans.

📉 China’s economy slowed less than expected in Q2 due to policy support and front-loading of exports, but the second half will be tougher as weak domestic demand, the property slump, and rising global trade risks ramp up pressure.

🤖 Igor Babuschkin, a founding member of Elon Musk’s AI company xAI, is leaving the startup to launch his own venture firm, Babuschkin Ventures. During his time at xAI, Babuschkin helped build out the company’s engineering teams and infrastructure, including the Memphis supercluster that powers the Grok chatbot. Babuschkin said he is leaving to support AI safety research and invest in startups working on “AI and agentic systems that advance humanity and unlock the mysteries of our universe.”

🌍 Geopolitics:

⚔️ President Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Russian President Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine, but also said a meeting between them could be quickly followed by a second meeting that would include Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. European leaders and Zelenskyy spoke with Trump in a call to lay out “red lines” ahead of the Alaska meeting, including that Ukraine’s borders cannot be negotiated without its participation.

🤝 On Friday, Trump and Putin will meet to negotiate what is expected to be a definitive peace agreement for Ukraine. This worries NATO countries. Given that the EU has opted for fiscal expansion in military matters and an end to the conflict would leave the political class without arguments to present to the public.

🚫 The German Chancellor Merz and Zelensky have officially rejected any agreement that includes any territories to be given to Russia: “Borders may not be changed through violence.”

📰 According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, Zelensky is preparing to stage an attack to incriminate Russia and torpedo the Putin-Trump summit. The SBU transferred foreign journalists to Chuguev (Kharkiv). Kiev plans to attack its residential areas and leave many victims.

💸 According to The Telegraph, U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to propose a series of economic incentives to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting on August 15th in Alaska. These include: Granting Russia access to Alaska’s natural resources, Partially lifting sanctions on Russia’s aircraft industry, Giving Putin access to rare earth minerals in Ukrainian territories currently under Russian occupation.

🛠️ The U.S. Treasury Secretary is reportedly working on preparations for these economic concessions, including the possibility of creating new mining ventures with Russia to develop Ukrainian mineral deposits.

✈️ Other proposed incentives include lifting the ban on exporting spare parts and equipment needed to service Russian aircraft, which have deteriorated due to Western sanctions. Trump is also considering giving Russia access to natural resources in the Bering Strait, which is believed to have significant untapped oil and gas reserves.

💼 Turkish media, specifically the newspaper Aydınlık, has reported that members of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s entourage are allegedly transferring about $50 million per month to bank accounts in the United Arab Emirates. According to these reports, the funds are routed through two companies—GFM Investment Group and Gmyrin Family Holding—which are reportedly linked to Andrey Gmyrin, a former Ukrainian government advisor currently facing international arrest warrants for alleged corruption and laundering activities.

⚠️ Scandal in Poland as the list of where pandemic recovery funds have gone is revealed: yacht purchases, sex clubs & tanning beds.

🇫🇷 Le Pen’s RN Party has smashed their all-time polling record this month, and is now leading Emmanuel Macron’s party by 18%. Make France Great Again?

🇮🇱 Israeli PM Netanyahu said he feels he’s on a “historic and spiritual mission” attached to the vision of Greater Israel, which encompasses territories designated for a future Palestinian state as well as parts of present-day Jordan and Egypt. According to Euronews, Israel plans to expel Palestinians from Gaza to South Sudan, a devastated country in conflict. Norway’s $2 trillion wealth fund terminates Israeli asset management contracts.

💰 The US Attorney General Pam Bondi revealed that the Department of Justice seized $700 million in assets linked to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. There is currently a reward of 50 million US dollars offered by the US government for anyone who provides information leading to the capture and/or conviction of Maduro. This reward was recently doubled (August 2025), as it was previously 25 million dollars.

📦 According to Reuters, US authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips to detect illegal diversions to China, according to sources. This measure aims to enforce chip export restrictions and build cases against violators.

📊 Market View:

📈 Stock markets have returned to their peak levels, buoyed by optimism surrounding a potential rate cut by the Fed and the end of the war in Ukraine. The S&P 500 futures have reached a new record, currently touching 6,480 points. Nasdaq 100 futures are approaching the 24,000 points reached just a few hours ago.

💵 The dollar continues to weaken in anticipation of interest rate cuts, with its index falling to 97.80 points. This has led the EUR/USD pair to recover and approach 1.17 once again.

🇪🇺 In Europe, markets are not as strong as in the United States, but they also show optimism. DAX 40 futures have surpassed 24,250 points and are heading towards historical highs. Eurostoxx 50 futures have reached 5,400 points.

🛢️ The crude oil market is cooling in line with lower inflation in the United States and a potential economic slowdown in China. Brent crude has fallen to $66 per barrel.

💎 Gold prices continue to rise, and last Friday, gold futures surpassed $3,530 per ounce before retreating to the current $3,410.

💹 Bitcoin has set a new record in recent hours due to optimism in the crypto environment. The new record stands at over $124,500. We have provided more details on this in the news section.