Market Report.
The ongoing protests and unrest in Iran, coupled with the Trump administration’s tough rhetoric and actions, are contributing to the rise in global oil prices as the market assesses the potential for supply disruptions from the region.
Trump said he has “cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS” and told Iranian “patriots” to “KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!”
Crude oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday, with U.S. crude closing at $61.15 per barrel and global benchmark Brent settling at $65.47 per barrel.
Yesterday’s US inflation data came in line with expectations. The annualized CPI stands at 2.7%, while the monthly CPI is at 0.3%. Core CPI inflation was slightly better than expected, at 0.2% compared to 0.3%, and the annualized rate also improved, from an expected 2.7% to 2.6%.
However, costs for rents and food increased, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
The escalating tensions between the White House and the Fed could complicate plans to confirm a new Fed chair after Powell’s term expires in May.
President Trump has slammed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as either “incompetent” or “crooked”, amid the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into Powell and the Fed. Trump accused Powell of being “billions of dollars over budget” on renovations to the Fed’s Washington headquarters, which is at the center of the DOJ probe.
Trump’s comments come as bipartisan criticism grows over the investigation, which is seen as undermining the Fed’s independence. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned the probe could raise inflation expectations and increase interest rates.
However, Trump dismissed these concerns, saying “I think it’s fine what I’m doing” and calling Powell “a bad Fed person” who has “done a bad job.”
Powell has directly connected the DOJ probe to Trump’s frequent complaints about the Fed not lowering interest rates fast enough, calling it “unprecedented action” and “the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.”
The options market is now signaling that traders see the Fed holding steady on interest rates throughout 2026, rather than making any cuts as some had previously anticipated
Traders focused on options trading are increasingly pricing out expectations for any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. Instead, they are making wagers that would pay off if the central bank keeps rates unchanged all year.
The German wholesale sector faces structural issues in the broader German economy that require more than just short-term fiscal measures, as announced by the EU, to resolve.
The German wholesale sector is expecting only slight sales growth of 0.7% in 2026, after stagnating in 2025, according to the BGA trade association. BGA President Dirk Jandura warned that if the political framework conditions for SMEs don’t change, the industry could see more insolvencies and job losses.
The lobby group found that over half of wholesale companies recorded sales declines last year, and more than a third expect further losses in 2026. The wholesale industry’s struggles reflect structural problems in the entire German economy, with issues like bureaucratic burdens, high energy costs, and labor costs weighing on the sector.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy seems to survive after its diversification despite Trump’s trade war. China reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-U.S. markets as Chinese producers looked to build global scale to fend off sustained pressure from the Trump administration.
China’s economy remains “extraordinarily competitive” due to gains in productivity and technological sophistication, as well as weak domestic demand and excess capacity.
Exports to the U.S. slumped 20% in 2025, while China made inroads in other markets like Africa (up 25.8%) and ASEAN (up 13.4%), cushioning the impact of U.S. tariffs.
China’s rare earth exports hit their highest level since 2014, as Beijing used the exports as leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S.
The Trump challenge is not going away, with the U.S. president threatening new tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, risking renewed trade tensions with China.
Two giants in the corporate world cease to compete and collaborate. Apple and Google have entered into a multi-year collaboration where the next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google’s Gemini models and cloud technology.
These new Apple Foundation Models will help power future Apple Intelligence features, including a more personalized Siri assistant coming this year. After evaluation, Apple determined that Google’s AI technology provides the most capable foundation for their Foundation Models.
The Alibaba-backed startup PixVerse has launched a new AI tool that allows users to control and influence how a video unfolds in real-time as it is being generated.
PixVerse co-founder Jaden Xie believes this real-time AI video generation technology can create “new business models”, such as allowing users to interactively influence the storyline of a micro-drama or play an “infinite” video game. PixVerse’s tool highlights how Chinese startups are rivaling OpenAI’s advanced Sora video generation model, offering faster generation speeds and lower usage fees.
Chinese AI video generation models from companies like PixVerse, Shengshu, and Kling are outpacing their U.S. counterparts in terms of user experience and monetization potential.
Alibaba has risen more than 12% since closing price last week.
Geopolitics.
CBS reports that the so‑called “color revolution” in Iran is faltering, and that Israeli and Arab officials are urging President Trump to hold off on military strikes. According to informed sources, they believe the Iranian regime is not yet weak enough for U.S. action to deliver a decisive blow and warn that an attack could carry serious consequences. The report adds that there is no clear Plan B if strikes are delayed.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States will now directly support protesters in Iran and warned that Washington would take “very strong action” if Iranian authorities begin executing protesters, escalating his rhetoric over the unrest.
Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius said that NATO would not act in Greenland without U.S. consent, highlighting the alliance’s structure, in which the United States is a central decision‑maker.
The remark has fueled criticism and irony, since it implies that any NATO response, to protect the territory of one of its members, Greenland, from a possible US invasion, would require approval from the US itself.
Greenland’s prime minister said plainly: “We choose Denmark over the United States.”
Market View.
Tensions between the US administration and the Federal Reserve appear to be weighing on markets. S&P 500 futures are edging lower, slipping back below the 7,000‑point mark and currently trading around 6,988 points. Nasdaq 100 futures, which had managed to trade above 26,000, have also pulled back to around 25,860 points.
The US dollar continues to strengthen, with the DXY index moving back above the 99 level, suggesting diminishing confidence in near‑term rate cuts. As a result, EUR/USD has fallen further and now appears to be consolidating below 1.1650.
In Europe, markets remain elevated but show limited follow‑through. DAX 40 futures are holding above 25,500 points, though they have been moving sideways in recent hours. Euro Stoxx 50 futures appear more resilient and continue to advance above 6,050 points.
Crude oil remains in an upward phase amid ongoing concerns over unrest in Iran. Spot Brent approached $66 per barrel before easing back to around $65.
Gold futures continue to push higher, printing new all‑time highs above $4,630 per ounce.
Bitcoin has finally broken above the $92,300 barrier, reaching new three‑month highs near $96,500, before pulling back slightly to around $95,150.
