Market Report.
🇺🇸 One less market risk factor, the US government re-opens.
🏛️ The 41-day US government shutdown is on track to end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by a group of centrist Democrats. The Senate voted 60-40 to pass the bill, which now heads to the House for approval before going to President Trump for his signature. The deal drops the Democrats’ demand to renew expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, angering progressive Democrats who had rallied to the confrontation with Trump.
💬 The moderate Democratic group that brokered the deal faced backlash from party leaders and progressives, who criticized it as a “terrible mistake” that failed to fight for healthcare. However, polls showed the public blamed Republicans more than Democrats for the shutdown, and the Obamacare subsidies issue remains broadly popular.
💵 President Trump has proposed mailing $2,000 “dividend” payments to US citizens, funded by tariff revenue. This is similar to the stimulus checks distributed during the COVID-19 crisis. The plan could cost the US government double what it’s projected to take in from tariffs in 2025, undermining Trump’s claim that tariff revenue will help pay down federal debt, with critics arguing it would irresponsibly add to the deficit and potentially stoke further inflation.
💰 Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested the $2,000 could come in the form of tax relief rather than direct payments, though Trump has continued to push for the dividend checks. If the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs were imposed unlawfully, the government may have to refund that revenue, further complicating the potential dividend plan.
✈️ On the top of that, President Trump is recommending a $10,000 BONUS to air traffic control who didn’t take off work during the shutdown.
🏠 A path to the perpetual debt of citizens?
📉 President Trump downplayed criticism of the potential creation of a 50-year mortgage product, saying it would help more Americans afford monthly home payments. Extending mortgages to 50 years from the standard 30-year period would reduce monthly payments, but buyers would build equity much more slowly and pay far more interest over the life of the loan.
🏦 Critics, including Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have slammed the idea as a giveaway to banks and mortgage lenders. The Trump administration’s focus on lowering the monthly cost of homeownership follows Democratic victories last week where candidates won by focusing on affordability and cost-of-living issues.
📈 The average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages is 6.22%, down slightly from over 7% earlier this year but still much higher than the sub-3% rates seen after the 2020 pandemic. Housing inventory has reached the highest level since 2019, and while price increases have slowed, steep home value jumps in recent years have strained affordability.
🤖 Effect AI vs migration in the U.S., Less immigrants and more robots for the labor market?
💼 San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the slowing payroll growth in the U.S. is likely due more to weaker demand for workers than a drop in the labor force from tightened immigration policy. Daly noted that slowing wage growth indicates the decline in monthly job gains shows businesses need fewer workers, not just struggling to find new employees amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
📊 Monthly job growth fell from around 150,000 per month in 2024 to around 50,000 in the first half of 2025, but the unemployment rate stayed steady. Daly said the slowdown in nominal and real wage growth across many sectors suggests the labor market has cooled due to reduced demand, not just structural labor supply issues.
🏦 Daly said the Fed has appropriately lowered rates, but now needs to assess if the U.S. economy is at risk of a breakout in inflation or on the verge of a productivity boom driven by AI.
🇨🇭 Switzerland is close to securing a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, down from the punishing 39% levy it was hit with in August.
🤝 A deal may be concluded within the next two weeks, according to people familiar with the matter, though they warned the negotiations could still fall apart. The previous negotiations ended with Switzerland being hit with the highest tariff rate the US imposed on any developed nation.
📉 The higher tariffs have already taken a toll on the Swiss economy, with signs of shrinking GDP, rising unemployment, and the central bank warning of a deteriorating outlook. Securing a reduced 15% tariff would mark the successful culmination of weeks of diplomatic efforts by Switzerland to negotiate better terms with the US.
💂 Consumption is slowing in the UK due to fear of new income taxes.
🛍️ Spending from British consumers cooled in October as they waited to see how Black Friday deals and the upcoming government budget would turn out. The British Retail Consortium’s sales data showed annual growth of just 1.6% last month, the weakest since May. Consumers and businesses appear to have adopted a “wait and see” approach ahead of the November 26th budget, which is expected to contain tax hikes.
🏛️ The Confederation of British Industry has urged the government to break election pledges and raise taxes to build “real fiscal headroom”, rather than further taxing businesses.
💹 China’s central bank, the PBOC, vowed to further encourage financing in the yuan by overseas entities as a way to advance the internationalization of the Chinese currency. The PBOC pledged to support the use of various yuan-denominated funding products, including loans, panda bonds, offshore yuan bonds, and trade financing, to make it easier for overseas institutions and companies to obtain the currency.
🐉 This is part of China’s plan to broaden the usage of the renminbi (yuan) for multiple purposes, as the currency’s cheap borrowing costs have become a new selling point amid China’s moderately loose monetary policy. China has already seen progress in the internationalization of the yuan, with it becoming the second most used global currency in trade finance markets in September.
🏦 The PBOC noted that central banks, including those in Hong Kong, Turkey and South Korea, regularly tap bilateral currency swap lines to obtain the yuan for supporting trade financing. More commercial agreements monetized in yuan. Increased yuan-borrowing overseas can be coordinated with the trend of Chinese firms expanding industrial supply chains globally, helping to bolster the currency’s use in trade and investment.
⛏️ Russia could offer rare earths in exchange for returning to the western market.
🌍 Russia is looking to ramp up rare earth production, but it is late to the party and faces challenges in establishing its position in the highly lucrative global rare earth market. Russia is estimated to have the 5th largest known reserves of rare earths globally, at 3.8 million tonnes, but its domestic production is currently only 2,500 metric tons or 0.64% of global production.
🪙 Russia is preparing plans to better exploit its rare earth resources as global demand soars, particularly from the U.S. which is concerned about supply chain vulnerabilities. However, Russia’s rare earth deposits are believed to be of lower quality compared to major producers like China, and details about its reserves remain opaque.
⚖️ Russia faces a choice of aligning with China, its powerful Eastern ally, or looking to the West, particularly the U.S., for potential investment and partnerships in mining and processing rare earths.
Geopolitics.
📵 The US influence on Europe continues to close business. US barred Huawei and lobbied European nations to follow suit.
📡 Now, the European Commission is exploring ways to force EU member states to phase out the use of Huawei and ZTE equipment from their telecommunications networks. Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen wants to convert the 2020 recommendation to stop using high-risk vendors into a legal requirement for member states.
⚠️ If the recommendations become legally binding, countries that don’t comply could face infringement procedures and financial penalties. Banning certain vendors is likely to spark a political battle, as countries have resisted ceding control over Huawei decisions to the commission, and telecom operators oppose restrictions.
Market View.
📈 Optimism has returned to Wall Street following the reopening of the US government. S&P 500 futures have reached 6,850 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures exceeded 25,750 before pulling back to their current level of 25,660.
💵 The DXY dollar index remains steady above 99.50, holding firm. The EUR/USD pair is stable around 1.1550, awaiting fresh momentum.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures briefly surpassed 24,000 points, reaching 24,155 before easing to 24,095. EuroStoxx 50 futures also climbed momentarily above 5,700 points before edging slightly lower to 5,695.
🛢️ The crude market remains quiet, with Brent crude still near $64 per barrel, currently trading at $63.70.
🏆 Gold futures have seen a remarkable rally since last week, recently surpassing $4,150 per ounce before easing back to $4,135.
💻 Bitcoin broke above $107,000 in recent hours but has since retreated to $104,935.
