Macro-News round-up:

#MarketNews

• • The Reserve Bank of Australia has issued a warning about the potential for unexpected increases in inflation, while also revising its predictions for economic growth and employment upwards.
  • The UK’s GDP saw a 0.60% expansion in Q3 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, surpassing the consensus of 0.5%.
  • Despite Q3 2023 marking the weakest performance in four quarters for the British economy, it outperformed forecasts of a 0.1% contraction. Monthly GDP saw an increase to 0.20% in September from 0.10% in August of 2023.
  • · Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, along with other policymakers, are not prepared to declare the peak of the central bank’s policy tightening efforts. In his early morning remarks at the IMF conference, Powell asserted that the Fed would not hesitate to increase rates if necessary, indicating that the battle against inflation is far from over. This stance may have contributed to a rise in yields.
  • Interim St. Louis Fed President Kathleen O’Neill Paese, speaking at an event in Indiana, cautioned against ruling out further rate hikes, citing significant economic uncertainty and the potential for inflation to exceed expectations.
  • A disappointing auction for 30-year Treasuries led to higher yields across the curve. Despite briefly dipping below 4.5%, yields appear to have returned to the other side. These higher yields were not well-received by US stocks yesterday, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling by 0.81% and 0.94% respectively.
  • We warned in previous reports of the excessive euphoria of the market, discounting since last Friday the end of the rate hike and restrictive policies. The harsh comments are back.
  • The number of new unemployment claims in the United States has slightly decreased, but the number of continued claims has increased.
  • Mexico’s central bank has maintained steady interest rates and softened its language in its policy statement, indicating a potential pause in its monetary tightening cycle. Some policymakers at the the central bank considers that the current inflation rate, despite having been successfully reduced, is still high.
  • Bank of Japan have discussed the need to begin phasing out massive stimulus and prepare for an exit from ultra-low interest rates.
  • China’s consumer prices fell back into decline in October, suggesting a slowing economic recovery .