Market Report.
👋 We are back. Welcome to the first report of the year. We wish everyone a happy 2026.
🚀 If 2025 began at full throttle with an euphoric Donald Trump following his electoral victory, 2026 shows no signs of slowing down. Today’s report is largely geopolitical, as the past few days have brought such a concentration of international developments that it is difficult to cover every detail in depth.
🔍 That said, there are still several key points worth highlighting for our readers, particularly in the areas of economics and global financial markets.
⚖️ The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs Today, which could have far-reaching impacts on trade policy and the U.S. fiscal situation.
📜 The core issues the court will address are whether the administration can use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy the tariffs, and if not, whether the U.S. will have to reimburse importers who have already paid the duties.
🧩 The court has multiple options in its ruling, including granting limited powers under the IEEPA or requiring only partial reimbursement. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects a “mishmash” ruling.
📉 Losing the tariffs could have negative impacts, including hampering the administration’s “onshoring” ambitions, worsening fiscal conditions, and pushing interest rates higher, though it would benefit corporate earnings.
🛠️ The administration has signaled it has other options through the 1962 Trade Act to maintain most of the tariffs, even if the court rules against the use of the IEEPA.
⛏️ The U.S. government is considering investing in critical minerals mining projects in Greenland, according to the CEO of mining company Amaroq, which operates in South Greenland. Discussions with U.S. government bodies about potential investment opportunities are ongoing, and could involve offtake agreements, infrastructure support, and credit lines.
🌍 The U.S. sees Greenland’s critical mineral deposits as a way to break China’s dominance in this strategic area. This aligns with President Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland for national security reasons.
🏔️ Greenland’s CEO stated that extracting critical minerals from the island is realistic with proper planning and logistics, comparing it to similar projects in Russia and Alaska. The U.S. has designated Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as a Special Envoy to Greenland, underscoring the importance the administration places on the territory.
🤝 This potential U.S. investment in Greenland’s critical minerals comes as Washington and Copenhagen prepare for high-stakes talks over the island’s future, amid escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration about acquiring it. Take a closer look at the geopolitics section for more details.
🇯🇵 The tensions between Japan and China have been escalating steadily since November 2025, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that Japan’s defense forces could militarily defend Taiwan.
🇨🇳 However, as Japan has not retracted Takaichi’s comments or formally apologized as demanded by Beijing, the Chinese government has been tightening the screws on Japan on a near-daily basis.
🧲 This week, China has banned exports of dual-use goods (with military and civilian applications) to Japan, and has now begun restricting exports of rare earth minerals and magnets to Japanese companies.
🏭 This will have immediate impacts on Japanese industries involved in advanced electronics, aviation, drones, and nuclear technology, as Japan relies on China for 63% of its rare earth imports.
📈 Europe’s Aerospace and defense index is surging to new all-time highs, with the RSI reaching the most overbought levels since last March. This suggests the rally may be getting overheated in the short-term.
🛡️ According to Deutsche Bank, NATO Europe’s defense spending has moved from around 1.5% to 2% of GDP, with a credible path toward 3% by the end of the decade and 3.5% by 2035. This provides multi-year revenue visibility for defense companies.
🏗️ European defense sector sales in 2025 are around 65% above pre-Ukraine invasion levels, indicating that the increased spending plans are translating into real orders, not just political intent. Germany and Poland are accelerating their defense spending the fastest.
🔒 Even if a Russia-Ukraine peace deal emerges, Europe’s defense spending is unlikely to fully reverse, as rising geopolitical friction and the push for strategic tech autonomy point to a lasting increase in defense investment.
🌐 Geopolitics.
🇻🇪 Trump’s intervention in Venezuela kidnapping the Venezuelan leader Maduro continues to cause reactions for and against. In this regard, U.S. Senator Rick Scott said on Wednesday on Fox News, He said Cuba, Nicaragua, and Colombia will be next: “Democracy is coming back to this hemisphere.”
🚔 Diosdado Cabello, the Minister of Interior and Justice of Venezuela, asserts that there is a functioning police unit in his country following the US military attack in Caracas and other adjacent regions.
🚫 Trump ordered the expulsion from Venezuela of security advisers and personnel who are linked to China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.
🏛️ The U.S. Senate voted 52-47 to block President Trump from further military action in Venezuela, passing a War Powers Resolution that would require him to seek Congressional approval before using the U.S. military there again. Trump criticized the 5 Republican senators who voted with Democrats, saying they “should be ashamed” and “should never be elected to office again.”
⚖️ Sen. Susan Collins, one of the Republicans who voted for the resolution, said she supports the operation to capture Maduro but does not support further U.S. military involvement in Venezuela or Greenland without Congressional authorization.
📜 The Constitution vests Congress with the authority to declare war, and Trump’s allies have argued he did not need to consult Congress on the Maduro operation, which they say was a law enforcement action.
🇫🇷 Macron sharply criticized the U.S. for “gradually turning away” from some of its allies and “breaking free from international rules.”
🇩🇪 German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has strongly criticized U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, urging the world not to let the world order disintegrate into a “den of robbers” where the unscrupulous take what they want. While the German presidency is largely ceremonial, Steinmeier’s words carry weight and he has more freedom to express views than politicians.
📰 According to the New York Times, Trump said in an interview that he sees no external limits on his global influence, aside from his own morality. “My own morality. My mind is the only thing that can stop me. I don’t need international law,” he said, adding that he is “not trying to harm people.”
🧭 Trump also suggested he could be willing to sacrifice NATO if necessary to resolve the issue of acquiring Greenland, signaling a readiness to upend longstanding alliances.
🇩🇰 On the other hand, Europe appears far more enthusiastic about fighting the US over Greenland than fighting Russia over Ukraine. Denmark’s defence ministry said that Danish troops would “shoot first and ask questions later” in the event of a U.S. invasion of Greenland, underscoring Copenhagen’s hard‑line stance on defending the territory.
📚 Relevant fact in this regard: Denmark surrendered very quickly to the German invasion in World War II. Operation Weserübung began on the morning of 9 April 1940; Denmark capitulated the same afternoon, officially at 18:00 on 9 April 1940.
🧊 While Russia has remained conspicuously quiet—likely preferring to see divisions emerge within NATO, China is closely watching the situation, having labeled itself a “near‑Arctic state” in 2018. Any deal or operation of this scale would carry significant global repercussions.
🇭🇺 Viktor Orban expresses his disapproval of the European Council meetings becoming war councils:
🗣️ “Some of us propose a different path: peace, stability, and a responsible economy. Meanwhile, Ukraine is asking for €800 billion over the next 10 years, pushing Europe further into economic decline. It is only a matter of time before Europeans refuse to be driven to ruin. Resistance is inevitable”.
🇬🇧 UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine following any ceasefire, including protected facilities to store weapons and military equipment. He added that both countries would take part in U.S.-led monitoring of a potential ceasefire.
🚢 The US forces seized the Russian oil tanker (Ex Bella 1) that escaped from the coasts of Venezuela.
⚠️ Russia has issued a sharp warning in response to the tanker seizure, with Alexey Zhuravlyov, a deputy in the Russian State Duma, calling for a military response. He said this should include torpedo attacks and the sinking of several U.S. ships, signaling an escalation in rhetoric amid rising tensions.
🛥️ The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia has deployed a submarine and other naval assets in relation with the oil tanker BELLA 1.
🔥 Iran has erupted into protests that are causing instability of its regime and unrest in multiple cities. The Iranian government has completely disconnected internet throughout the country on suspicion that foreign forces are operating internally. Lindsey Graham tells Iran’s Ayatollah that he better allow protesters to overthrow his goverment, or he will wake up dead.
📣 Graham says Iran is on the verge of collapse and guarantees the Iranian people that more help is on the way.
📊 Market Review.
📈 S&P 500 futures appeared to gain traction above the 6,950‑point level, but events over the past few days introduced fresh volatility. Even so, prices have moved back above 6,950, with strong bullish aspirations. Nasdaq 100 futures, however, continue to look heavier and slower, barely holding above 25,650 points. Other indices are showing far greater enthusiasm — the Russell 2000 has surged past 2,600 points, marking new all‑time highs.
💵 The US dollar has started the year strong — much like Trump himself — with the DXY index reaching the 99 level. EUR/USD has retreated sharply, falling to around 1.16.
🏛️ Political divisions within the core of the European Union persist, yet somewhat paradoxically, German futures are posting new all‑time highs, despite an economy that has been stagnant for three years. Expectations surrounding the defence industry remain extremely elevated. DAX 40 futures have climbed above 25,270 points, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are moving towards the 6,000‑point mark, currently trading around 5,935 points.
🛢️ The oil market experienced a strong rally, with spot Brent crude rising above $62 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures remain firm, trading close to $4,500 per ounce, currently around $4,480.
₿ Bitcoin continues its recovery attempts. On Monday it reached nearly $94,800, close to the highest levels seen over the past month. However, it has once again pulled back, now trading around $90,880.
