Market Report.
🤔 An absurd theory is starting to make more and more sense. What if Trump isn’t actually mad, but is just pretending to be in order to monopolise the energy markets? I’ll explain all the details below. Now let’s move on to the latest news.
🕊️ Yesterday, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey jointly proposed a 45-day ceasefire with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition.
🤝 Pakistan’s Army Chief has been mediating backchannel negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, proposing a two-phased approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a comprehensive peace agreement. A final round of in-person talks in Islamabad is proposed to conclude the agreement.
📩 Iran transmitted a 10-clause response via Pakistan — rejecting a ceasefire but demanding a permanent end to the war, sanctions relief, reconstruction aid, and a safe-passage protocol through the Strait of Hormuz.
📜 The key clauses include: a permanent end to the war, full sanctions relief, recognition of Iran’s nuclear rights, reopening the Strait of Hormuz with a formal safe-passage protocol and transit fees, reconstruction aid, and acknowledgment of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait.
🗣️ Trump described Iran’s alternative as “a significant step”, leaving a narrow window for a last-minute deal even as military preparations advanced. He insisted any agreement must include the reopening the Strait of Hormuz ahead of his Tuesday 8 p.m.
⚠️ However, both sides preparing for potential strikes on critical energy infrastructure, raising the stakes and risks of a wider regional conflict.
🎯 The US target list includes all major electricity generating plants, bridges, the Kharg Island oil export hub, and desalination plants critical for Iran’s water supply. U.S. officials warned that the military is “running out of traditional military targets” and that escalating to energy infrastructure represents a shift toward civilian pressure.
🚀 Iran’s Counter-Threat: Iran issued a formal military warning that any U.S. aggression would be met with strikes on U.S. and Gulf Arab energy assets until “total destruction is achieved”. Tehran has already struck Saudi and Gulf energy sites and threatened to target the UAE’s AI data center hub.
🛢️ Iraq’s Basra Oil Co. Manager after the Iranian attack: “Drone attacks on southern oilfields have caused major disruption to Iraq’s oil output and operations” — but added Iraq can restore exports to 3.4M BPD within a week if Hormuz shipping resumes.
🇶🇦 Qatar’s Prime Minister warned against the “unjustified aggression” and “irresponsible targeting” of vital civilian infrastructure like water, food, and energy facilities in the region. Iran has already struck civilian infrastructure in Qatar’s Gulf neighbors, including water desalination plants in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as Qatar’s massive LNG export facility.
🌊 Qatar is also fearful of Trump’s explicit threats to strike Iranian power plants, desalination plants, and bridges – a precedent that could be mirrored by Iran against Gulf states’ own critical infrastructure. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry warned of the danger of attacks on energy, nuclear, and water facilities, stating this risks “doomsday scenarios” of environmental catastrophe and loss of access to electricity and fresh water.
📉 Qatar’s force majeure declaration on LNG contracts has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, as Qatar supplies 21% of global LNG. The five-year damage timeline to the Ras Laffan facility means major importers like Europe will face reduced Qatari LNG supplies starting in 2027, complicating the energy transition.
🏦 The international financial order is being altered, and France is continuing to take actions against the US, following Trump’s humiliating words against Macron afterwards.
🥇 The Banque de France (BdF) announced it has completed the repatriation of 129 tonnes of gold (5% of its total reserves) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Rather than physically shipping the gold, France sold the old non-standard bars in New York at record-high prices, then simultaneously purchased compliant bullion on the European market, booking a €12.8 billion capital gain. France’s entire 2,437 tonnes of gold reserves are now stored exclusively in the BdF’s vault in Paris.
🧾 The BdF governor stated the decision was not politically motivated, but rather to upgrade France’s older, non-standard gold stock, as the higher-quality gold is more readily available in Europe. Analysts overwhelmingly view the move as geopolitically driven, with France and other allies hedging their trust in the U.S. by repatriating their gold reserves.
🌍 This repatriation fits into the broader trend of major economies, including France and Germany, quietly reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar and associated financial systems. The skyrocketing gold prices made the repatriation uniquely profitable for France, further incentivizing the move.
🕵️ Once again, there are allegations that Israel may be seeking to prevent an deal between Iran and the US.
✈️ Israel may have attacked JD Vance’s plane near Pakistan in a false-flag operation and blamed Iran in order to derail potential ceasefire talks between the US and Iran mediated by Pakistan.
📰 This allegation has not been confirmed by mainstream Western outlets, but is circulating in Pakistani and pro-Iran media channels. The claim cites an unnamed “senior analyst”, likely referencing commentary from Pakistani strategic analysts or ISI sources, rather than a verifiable Western source.
🇮🇱 The Israeli government has made no secret of its opposition to a U.S.-Iran deal that leaves the Islamic Republic intact.
🎭 Trump is not crazy, he’s just pretending to be.
🎤 Yesterday, Donald Trump told the press that he’s leading the polls in Venezuela, that people support him, that he’s top of the polls, and that they’d vote for him; so once he’s finished in the US, he’ll go to Venezuela, learn Spanish quickly, and stand for president.
🧠 What I mean by this news is, what if Trump isn’t mad, but is just playing the part of a madman?
🌎 The world’s three largest energy producers are: Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US. Sanctions against Russia have restricted its export market, whilst the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted that of the Saudis. The US is heading towards exclusive dominance of the global energy markets.
⛽ All the chaos Trump is causing in the international energy market comes hot on the heels of his intervention in Venezuela’s oil reserves.
💶 The main parties affected by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – Europe and Japan, as allies – may need to buy fuel from the US at a high premium, whilst their competitors, such as China, will see an increase in energy costs.
💡 Think about it: what if Trump is hoarding resources and putting pressure on the market for the benefit of the American energy industry?
🚢 LNG Exporters: Companies like Cheniere Energy, ExxonMobil, and Venture Global LNG are seeing huge profits as the loss of Qatari LNG supply has doubled LNG cargo prices.
🛢️ Shale Oil Producers: U.S. shale producers like Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy are benefiting from elevated global oil prices without supply disruptions.
🏭 Petrochemicals: U.S. shale-based petrochemical producers are gaining global market share as Middle Eastern exports are cut off.
🇷🇺 But wait, Russia wouldn’t sit idly by and watch its counterpart attack Iran unless it benefits from the situation, right? Bingo!.
📈 Russia’s oil revenues have rebounded as Asian buyers scramble for alternative supply, effectively neutralizing Western sanctions. Trump suspended sanctions on Russian crude, directly benefiting Moscow.
⚛️ But the crisis is accelerating Europe and Asia’s shift toward renewable and nuclear energy to reduce dependence on Gulf hydrocarbons, and again, Russia (Rosatom) is the world’s largest uranium enrichment company and the leading exporter of nuclear fuel for nuclear reactors.
Market View.
📉 S&P 500 futures remain stuck as markets await a potential agreement between the United States and Iran. Prices have barely moved since yesterday, currently trading around 6,625.
📊 Nasdaq 100 futures are in a similar position, trading at approximately 24,235.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened again, rising above the 100 mark following the rejection of the latest peace proposal. This has pushed EUR/USD slightly lower, back to around 1.1535.
🇪🇺 European markets also pulled back during yesterday’s session.
📉 DAX 40 futures slipped below 23,300, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures lost the 5,650 level they had previously regained and are now trading near 5,630.
🛢️ The oil market continued to climb, with spot Brent crude trading above $110 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures remain range‑bound around $4,675 per ounce.
₿ Yesterday, Bitcoin managed to break above $70,000, but has since pulled back to approximately $68,535.
