Market Report.
🗣️ According to Donald Trump, the Iranians have called him desperately, asking to negotiate, but he has told them that it is too late. Trump: “They are calling to say how do we make a deal? And I said you’re being a little bit late. We want to fight now more than they do.”
🇮🇷 Iranian FM Abbas Araqchi: “We haven’t asked for a ceasefire and we reject any negotiations with America”.
🔁 It reminds of when Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, unleashing chaos on the markets, and then told the cameras that everyone was calling for him desperate to make a deal. The 90-day tariff truce for 90 agreements was ended with few last-minute agreements only with its main allies.
📉 Markets remain stressed, but futures are holding up in lateral ranges for now. But the premium on US two-year bonds has already risen by 7% since the conflict began, and crude oil is up almost 20%. Europe seems to be the clear loser and hardest hit, as was the case with the war in Ukraine. The future of Europe took a hard turn yesterday.
🌍 This war is undoubtedly geopolitical in nature.
📺 A Fox News commentator summarised the situation with the following blunt remark: “The Chinese have financed the Iranian regime in exchange for cheap oil. Iran and Venezuela were proxies of China and Russia — and now we control them. They haven’t lifted a finger to stop it, and the whole world has seen it. Made in China — you get what you deserve.”
🕊️ However, the war could end in a blunt and confusing way (to avoid embarrassment?). Antony Blinken, secretary of state: ” Trump Could Simply Declare Victory” “We got rid of the ayatollah, destroyed his nuclear and missile capabilities, and over the regime, left it to the Iranian population, good luck.”
💥 The attacks persist on both sides. Iran has continued to attack US military bases in the region. Some media report that Iran has begun to use multiple warhead missile strikes on Tel Aviv.
🖥️ Data centers, the new military targets in wars due to their use in military technology:
🚁 Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has expanded its drone target list, now including Microsoft data centers in the Gulf region in addition to previous strikes on Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates.
⚠️ This marks an escalation, as commercial data centers are no longer off-limits, despite previous warnings about the need for next-generation counter-drone security measures to protect these critical facilities.
✈️ Kuwait had shot down at least three American F-15s in a strange “friendly fire” incident. the planes appeared on radars as enemy aircraft and were shot down by anti-aircraft systems. This serious mistake suggests according to experts possible electronic warfare or hacking by Iran.
🏛️ Meanwhile, political chaos continues to emerge in the US:
🗣️ Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, insisted yesterday in front of the cameras that “we are not at war,” but the secretary of defense said the day before, “We didn’t start this war but we’re going to end it.” And the day before this, Marc Rubio admitted to the cameras that the US had launched a military attack against Iran because Israel was going to attack anyway, and retaliation would have been for attacking American bases.
📺 CNN has published a compilation of videos in which the administration admits that they are at war: President Trump recently said “there may be casualties, that usually happens in war” “we’re doing very well on the war front” etc.
🗳️ House Iran war powers resolution, to limit Trump from taking further military action against Iran without congressional approval, voted down 219-212.
⚖️ By the way, Congress has refused to make public reports of abuse and sexual misconduct by congressional members, overwhelmingly not even close to approving it. House votes 357-65 to block release of congressional sexual misconduct and harassment reports
📰 According to Politico, the U.S. Department of Justice has published FBI documents outlining sexual assault allegations against President Donald Trump involving a woman who claims she was introduced to Trump by Jeffrey Epstein when she was a young teenager. The woman alleges that Trump sexually assaulted her, hit her and told others to remove her from the room. The documents include FBI interview summaries from 2019.
🇬🇧 The United Kingdom has officially announced it is joining the fighting in the Middle East.
🇬🇧 Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “We decided not to join the initial strikes on Iran carried out by the United States and Israel. But when Iran began attacking countries in the Gulf and the region, including Turkey, the situation changed.”
🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni says Italy does not want to enter the Iran war.
🇩🇰 Denmark condemned strikes on Iran and called for restraint or said actions risk violating sovereignty or international law.
🇰🇵 Other countries, however, seem eager to intervene in the conflict, no joke. North Korea: “We are ready to provide Iran with any kind of support it wants.”
❓ Could Tucker Carlson’s claim that Israel used false flag attacks to draw more countries into the war against Iran be true?
📰 Adhwan al-Ahmari, the president of the Saudi Journalists Association and editor-in-chief of Independent Arabia, stated that “not all attacks” against Persian Gulf countries originate from Iran in an interview that was aired on Asharq News on March 3. He emphasised concerns that the US-Israeli alliance seeks to “trap” Gulf countries into joining the conflict.
🇮🇷 Iran officially denies the missile and drone attacks on Turkey, Cyprus, and Oman, saying it respects the sovereignty of those countries.
🇹🇷 Erdogan’s first response following the missile attack on Turkey: “We will certainly build the Century of Turkey… We will defeat all conspiracies, overcome every obstacle, and we will not fall into the TRAPS they want to drag us into.”
🇬🇧 UK Ministry of Defense: “Shahed drone that targeted British RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus was not launched from Iran”.
🛢️ Crude oil market:
🚢 Iran is currently allowing only Russian, Chinese, and Pakistani ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
🇷🇺 Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could cut natural gas supplies to European countries that support the U.S. in attacks against Iran.
🔄 Deliberate U-turn by the U.S. administration, likely to prevent a global recession or worse from spiking oil prices, which are rising 5% per day due to the Hormuz disruption.
✅ In a major win for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the U.S. has granted a temporary 30-day license to allow for Russian oil sales to India. This comes as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, cutting off a major oil producing region. The U.S. had previously pressured India to abandon energy purchases from Russia, but India has continued to buy significant amounts. This license makes those purchases more official.
🇨🇳 Meanwhile, China is in talks with Iran to allow safe passage for Chinese crude oil and Qatari LNG vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. If successful, along with Russia being able to fully supply India’s needs, and Saudi Arabia rerouting Gulf oil, the Hormuz blockade could become less ominous for global oil supply.
🇺🇦 Finally, we could make the report endless, with everything that is happening, but we ended up with this other news. The old war in Ukraine calls for prominence with its diverted attention to Iran.
⛽ The Russian gas pipeline supplying Hungary and Slovakia was recently blocked by Ukraine, prompting both EU member states to demand the immediate cessation of these actions.
🪖 Hungary reportedly mobilised its armed forces to protect strategic energy infrastructure amid concerns over a possible Ukrainian drone attack.
🗣️ Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also took a hard line, declaring: “There will be no agreements or concessions. We will break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force. Hungary’s energy will soon flow again through the Druzhba pipeline.”
⚠️ President Volodymyr Zelensky has sparked further controversy by warning that he would suggest targeting the residence of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán if Budapest refuses to approve new EU financial support for Kyiv. “We will provide his address to our Armed Forces,” Zelensky reportedly stated.
🇭🇺 Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó responded firmly: “No one can threaten Hungary or its Prime Minister.”
🇸🇰 Meanwhile, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico commented “Zelensky is testing the patience of Slovakia and Hungary.”
🛡️ However, there are no statements yet from NATO, a military alliance of which Hungary is part. Similar to the delay when the US threatened to annex Greenland, one of its protected countries.
Market View.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures remain stable above the 6,800‑point level, currently trading around 6,850 points.
📊 Nasdaq 100 futures are also stabilising above 25,000 points, reaching approximately 25,115.
💲 The US dollar strengthened again during yesterday’s session, with the DXY index climbing to 99.40 before easing back to around 99.00.
💶 Meanwhile, EUR/USD is stabilising above the 1.1600 level, although downside risks remain.
🇩🇪 In Europe, DAX 40 futures fell towards 23,700 points during yesterday’s session before rebounding to around 23,940.
🇪🇺 Euro Stoxx 50 futures dropped below 5,750 points but have since recovered to approximately 5,820 points.
🛢️ Oil continues to advance, with spot Brent crude approaching the $86 per barrel level.
🥇 Gold futures appear to be consolidating support above $5,100, currently trading near $5,125 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum. It surged to $74,000 during yesterday’s session before pulling back slightly to around $70,965.
📝 This report was prepared by our economist Gonzalo Canete. ATFX may or may not share the author’s views. This report aims to be purely objective, neutral and free from external influences.
