Market Report.
📅 Before we get into the key details, remember that today we have the important US employment figures, the unemployment rate and the NFP, which could influence the stance of the world’s largest central bank, the Fed. A small increase of 85,000 in May payrolls is predicted, but an unexpected increase might help the dollar.
🗣️ Trump no longer knows what to say to keep the markets optimistic. Yesterday he told the press that, he would be honored to meet Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal is reached to end the four-month-old war. He made the remarks while taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office after an announcement about coal.
🔀 Mixed messages have emerged from negotiations. On Monday, Iranian state media reported that Iran’s negotiators would halt talks and shut the strait. Then on Wednesday, Trump said Iran had agreed not to have a nuclear weapon. This in itself is not news; Iran has never officially stated that it intends to acquire nuclear weapons, but Trump seems to be at a standstill, just filling the airwaves with rhetoric.
US alliances in the Gulf continue to break down, division seems to emerge among states that have protected the petrodollar for decades.
⚠️ A military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a stark warning to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, while offering praise to Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince.
💬 “The Emir of Qatar and Mohammed bin Salman are on the right path in history,” the adviser said. In contrast, he accused the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait of believing that American power will remain as strong as ever, adding that they had supported Saddam’s Iraq against Iran.
🔪 “If they continue down this path, we will even go after them once the war is over,” he warned.
Trump seems unable to contain Isarel.
🔥 Residents in Gaza, southern Lebanon, northern Israel, and Kuwait experienced ongoing conflict this week, despite U.S.-arranged ceasefires. President Trump stated that ceasefires in the Middle East often involve reduced fighting rather than complete peace. Three truces negotiated by his administration aimed to stop the warfare, yet violence persists.
🕊️ The U.S. helped broker a Gaza ceasefire in October 2025, which included halting hostilities, releasing hostages and prisoners, and providing aid; however, disagreements remain over the aid amount, and Hamas has not agreed to disarm. Since the truce, Israeli airstrikes have killed over 900 Palestinians, while four Israeli soldiers have died from militant attacks.
📆 On April 16, Trump announced a ten-day ceasefire, but fighting continued. Israeli strikes since then resulted in hundreds of deaths, totaling over 3,500 since March 2. Hezbollah’s attacks claimed 26 Israeli soldiers and four civilians. Trump proposed a new ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah withdrawing from southern areas, which they rejected, leading to continued fighting. Iran seeks a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of a broader agreement.
Ukraine is moving toward the EU, but slowly.
✅ All 27 EU member states have approved opening the first cluster of formal accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. The decision follows an agreement between Ukraine and Hungary on the rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukrain.
🤝 Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar announced the deal, removing a veto that his predecessor Viktor Orban had maintained for over a year with a list of 11 demands. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos confirmed the agreement opens the way for progress on Ukraine’s EU accession path.
📅 The formal opening of the first of six enlargement clusters is planned for mid-June in Luxembourg, likely on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign ministers. EU diplomats also expect the sixth cluster on external relations to open without problems.
⚠️ Poland’s ongoing fears of Ukrainian competition mean the fourth and fifth clusters, covering agriculture and transport, will most likely not open at this stage.
📚 Cluster 1 focuses on fundamentals like justice, rights, administration, procurement, statistics, and financial control. Cluster 2 covers the internal market, including movement of goods/people/capital, company law, IP, and consumer protection. Cluster 3 addresses competitiveness and inclusive growth, with topics like taxation, social policy, and education. Cluster 4 centers on the green agenda, including transport, energy, and climate. Cluster 5 involves resources, agriculture, food safety, fisheries, and regional policy. Cluster 6 deals with external relations, foreign, security, and defense policy.
🗳️ Prime Minister Magyar said that if Ukraine manages to close all 33 chapters within 10 or 15 years, Hungary would then hold a referendum on Ukrainian membership.
The US continues to seek an exit from the Ukrainian muddle.
📣 Representative Thomas Massie announced on social media that he voted against the Ukraine Support Act, citing the cost to U.S. taxpayers. “I just voted against the Ukraine Support Act tonight. It sends over $9 billion of your dollars overseas, and includes $250 million for Radio Free Europe, a Cold War relic that benefits no American,” Massie wrote.
🧾 However, The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Ukraine Support Act on Thursday with a vote of 226 to 195. The bill includes over 1 billion dollars in aid and up to 8 billion dollars in loans for Ukraine, along with strict sanctions on Russian sectors.
🔎 This legislation offers aid to Ukraine and imposes new sanctions on Russia, indicating that some Republicans are willing to challenge their party leaders and President Trump. Eighteen Republicans and one independent joined Democrats to support the bill, which was brought to the floor through a discharge petition after being stalled for months. Its future is uncertain as it must still pass the Senate, where Republican leaders have not allowed votes on similar legislation.
Meanwhile, NATO increases its military deployment in Eastern Europe, facing Russia.
🇵🇱 Poland and Lithuania confirmed they are participating in early-stage discussions about their potential role in NATO’s nuclear deterrence efforts. The talks focus on creating better conditions for nuclear deterrence and ensuring Poland plays an important role.
❌ Poland denied any plans to host nuclear weapons, calling it an extremely serious matter with significant political consequences. Lithuania’s defense minister confirmed discussions are taking place and said the country is not standing on the sidelines.
📰 Both ministers were responding to a Financial Times report citing anonymous sources that the United States had signaled openness to deploying elements of its nuclear arsenal in new European countries. The report said Poland and the Baltic states were interested in potentially hosting bases for U.S. dual-capable aircraft that can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.
🔄 Poland has expressed willingness to participate in nuclear deterrence since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Analysts suggest a middle ground option of “nuclear sharing light,” where Polish planes could be certified to carry U.S. nuclear weapons while the weapons themselves would not be deployed in Poland.
The Anti-EU party AfD, continues to gain support among Germans.
📊 A new Infratest Dimap poll shows 47 percent of Germans now say the CDU’s refusal to work with the AfD is not right, while 47 percent say it is right. Since September 2024, opposition to the stance has risen by 12 points and support has fallen by 13 points.
📈 The AfD remains Germany’s strongest party in national polling at 27 percent, ahead of the CDU/CSU at 23 percent. The Greens are at 14 percent, the SPD at 13 percent, and the Left Party at 10 percent.
😟 Deep dissatisfaction with the federal government intensifies pressure on the CDU. Only 16 percent of Germans are satisfied with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s performance, and 82 percent are dissatisfied. Just 12 percent are satisfied with the federal government overall.
📉 Only 13 percent describe Germany’s economic situation as good, while 85 percent rate it as less good or bad. Just 6 percent expect to be better off in a year’s time, while 38 percent expect things to worsen.
Germany has lost its career to the UN security council.
💔 Germany’s foreign minister described the country’s failure to secure a rotating seat on the UN Security Council as a bitter defeat. Germany lost out to Portugal, which received 134 votes, and Austria, which received 131. Germany secured 104 votes.
🗣️ Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany’s firm support for Ukraine may have cost votes, noting it is no secret that Russia stirred up sentiment against Germany to prevent such a voice at the Security Council.
⚖️ Wadephul also said that Germany’s special responsibility for Israel in the Middle East conflict may have cost votes, acknowledging that Germany has taken clear stances on issues that not all member states share.
📉 The result is a blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has promoted himself as a leader who would boost Germany’s international standing.
Corporate News.
💻 Chipmaker stocks dropped sharply on Thursday, notably Broadcom and Micron. Broadcom’s shares fell 12 percent due to disappointing earnings, leading to a sector-wide decline. Micron Technology decreased over 7 percent, and ARM Holdings fell 4 percent. Qualcomm dropped 2 percent, Intel nearly 1 percent, and AMD slipped 3 percent, although Marvell Technology ended nearly 5 percent higher after an initial drop.
🏦 HSBC highlighted concerns over declining chip prices and reduced AI spending.
₿ Bitcoin continues to lose support levels.
📉 Bitcoin has dropped 13% this week, facing its worst performance since February as investors shift to other assets like AI stocks and the SpaceX IPO.
📉 Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 straight days, with total assets decreasing from 107.8 billion dollars to 82.8 billion dollars.
💸 A sale of 32 Bitcoin by MicroStrategy for about 2.5 million dollars shook investor confidence, prompting 594 million dollars in liquidations.
Market view.
↔️ US futures are beginning to show a sideways pattern on the charts. S&P 500 futures are once again trading around the 7,550-point level, whilst Nasdaq 100 futures are around 30,100 points.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed towards the 99.50 area yesterday but has pulled back over the last few hours to the current 99.30. This is generating fresh bullish moves in pairs such as EUR/USD, which is rising towards the 1.1630 area, and GBP/USD, which is climbing towards 1.3440.
🥇 Likewise, gold futures weakened during yesterday’s session, approaching $4,455 per ounce in recent hours before rebounding; they are currently trading at $4,480 per ounce.
📉 In Europe, markets opened with a bearish gap. DAX 40 futures fell below 25,000 points, struggling to reclaim that level, and are currently trading at 24,900 points. Euro Stoxx 50 futures, which surpassed 6,125 points yesterday, are attempting to scale that level again today, currently trading at 6,090 points.
🛢️ Crude oil fell during yesterday’s session, dipping below $94 per barrel for spot Brent, and is currently trading around $94.75 per barrel.
📉 Finally, Bitcoin’s slump continues; over the last few hours it has fallen to $61,075.
