Market Report.
🇬🇧 Today is Easter Monday here in the UK, but the urgency of current international events and their impact on the markets has led us to put the festivities on hold and issue this report for investors.
📰 As I write this report, the news that a senior Iranian official has confirmed that Tehran has received a proposal from Pakistan and is currently reviewing it, signaling ongoing diplomatic contacts amid heightened regional tensions. But before you get swept away by optimism, read the full report to understand the magnitude of what is happening.
⏳ Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline (expiring on the night of 6–7 April) for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to “unleash hell” through attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. This represents the red lines we mentioned two weeks ago as those that must not be crossed. The damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf, caused by Israeli and US bombing, together with Iran’s retaliatory strikes on other neighbouring infrastructure in the Gulf, marks a point of no return, beyond which the damage to the global economy will become irreparable. It is the worst-case scenario. The US withdrawing from the conflict is the only viable solution for the sake of the global economy, as the UK has suggested.
📱 Trump seems to be losing his head over the conflict; his latest posts suggest a certain degree of desperation: “Open the fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell — just watch! Praise be to Allah. President Donald J. Trump”.
🗞️ The Axios Interview yesterday Trump told Axios: “There is a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there”.
🌍 According to Wall Street Journal, the U.S.-Europe Alliance Is Reaching a Breaking Point Over the Iran War. European refusal to join the war. NATO allies — led by France, Germany, and others — dismissed the conflict as “not our war”, infuriating Trump. NATO on the verge of disintegration due to war in the Middle East. “NATO becomes worthless to him if it only runs in one direction”. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump had made his “disappointment with NATO clear, and the United States will remember”.
🚢 Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz from an international shipping lane into a politically controlled zone, establishing a system of differentiated fees based on geopolitical alignment. Exemptions have been documented for vessels from Malaysia, India, Thailand, France, Japan, Oman and Iraq, whilst other countries face restrictions or high tolls. The oil tanker Ocean Thunder (chartered by Petronas, carrying ~1 million barrels of Iraqi crude) sailed to Malaysia as part of a group of at least seven Malaysian vessels authorised to pass without paying fees.
💣 Former Israeli politician Yoav Gallant is calling on President Donald Trump to completely flatten Iran, saying no target is off the table, including civilians. Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, one of Iran’s top science and engineering institutions, was bombed tonight, and a number of schools reportedly damaged. Maryam Mirzakhani, the first woman to win the Fields Medal in mathematics (the Nobel of mathematics), studied at Sharif University of Technology.
☢️ The 5 April attack on the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the fourth attack against this target, significantly escalated, forcing the evacuation of Russian personnel and IAEA warnings about possible “radioactive fallout.”
🚀 Iran has also slightly changed its strike tactics by firing more cruise missiles than before. It also fired at least 5 ballistic missiles at Israel, with one directly hitting a residential building in Haifa and another striking an open area in the Neot Hovav Industrial Zone.
📺 Israel’s Channel 14 News discusses atomic bomb use on Iran, laughing and joking, but even the hardliner Ben Gvir, present in the TV studio, avoids this question and laughs.
✈️ The rescue of the second F-15 pilot shot down on Iranian territory over the weekend, has involved significant operational costs and revealed Iran’s territorial extension as a limiting factor for the US.
🇺🇦 Zelesky appears to regard Iran’s tactics as effective, and has also launched attacks on energy infrastructure – in this case, Russian infrastructure. Ukrainian drones hit Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s biggest Black Sea oil terminals. This is a vital hub for Russian oil exports and Black Sea naval logistics.
🏢 Civil businesses, like airlines, are already announcing considerable impacts on their sales. Kerosene imports from Ormuz to Europe reach levels close to 50% as we warned in these reports at the beginning of the conflict.
⛽ Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, as jet fuel requires a higher proportion of crude oil to refine than petrol or diesel. The EU has formally urged citizens to reduce flying and driving where possible to conserve reserves, and is reportedly considering emergency measures.
✈️ Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary issued the most explicit public warning, stating the airline is looking at cancelling 5–10% of its flights through May, June, and July if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr briefed staff; contingency plans to ground up to 40 aircraft (~5% of fleet).
⚠️ British Airways issued warning of disruptions. Korean Air (South Korea) declared “emergency mode” due to record fuel costs.
🛫 Three major Italian airports (Bologna, Venice and Milan) have already moved beyond warnings to actual fuel rationing.
❓ What are Europe’s options in the event of energy market chaos?
📈 The conflict has caused oil prices to spike and OPEC+ to respond inadequately, with asymmetric effects on different economies. Energy market reacts with crude reaching around $120 a barrel. Asian and European countries are developing bilateral strategies with Iran regardless of the US position, highlighting the fragmentation of the Western alliance.
🇮🇱 We must not forget that one of the main beneficiaries of this chaos could be Israel; as Netanyahu pointed out a few days ago, Israel could serve as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz if investment were made in building gas pipelines from the Gulf to Israeli ports, enabling Israel to sell gas to the Mediterranean and Europe. Strengthening the Eilat-Ashkelon corridor as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Saudi Arabia and the UAE to use Israeli infrastructure.
💶 As fears of an economic downturn mount, governments are beginning to roll out support measures. In France, authorities will offer loans of up to €50,000 to companies most exposed to rising fuel prices, a move seen as part of broader efforts to cushion the impact of energy shocks.
🇫🇷 According to Bloomberg, Macron Criticizes Trump and Calls on Allies to Unite Against US.
🌏 Macron made his remarks during a state visit to South Korea. Speaking in Seoul, Macron directly called on “medium-sized powers” — nations that are neither U.S. nor Chinese clients — to band together to avoid becoming “vassals” of either Washington’s “unpredictability” or Beijing’s “dominance”.
🗣️ He directly criticized Trump’s erratic public communications about the Iran war, saying “we do not contradict ourselves daily with opposing statements” and that Trump’s undermining of NATO’s implicit trust is damaging.
💥 Macron pointed out the contradiction between Trump’s claims of having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities and the need to destroy them again. He drew on the historical record of U.S. military campaigns, saying bluntly: “I don’t believe that we will fix the situation just by bombing or military operations.”
🎭 Macron’s reaction could be motivated by inappropriate comments made by Trump in the past few days. While lambasting NATO allies for refusing to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, Trump mocked Macron by mimicking a French accent and making a personal dig at the First Lady: “I call up France, Macron — whose wife treats him extremely badly. Still recovering from the right to the jaw.”
🇮🇹 Romano Prodi, the former president of the European Commission and former Italian prime minister, suggested that Russian gas could eventually return to Europe once U.S. financial investors acquire stakes in the pipeline infrastructure. He added that he believes this outcome aligns with what he described as President Trump’s plan.
🇷🇺 Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that one remaining Nord Stream pipeline remains intact and capable of transporting 27.5 trillion cubic meters of gas, arguing that reducing Germany’s energy costs would require only a political decision to resume flows. He added that, in his view, the ultimate decision rests not in Berlin but in Washington, which he claimed opposes such a move.
🕊️ Is a peace agreement still possible?
📑 A US 15-point plan was first reported by the NYT on March 24, delivered to Tehran via Pakistan. In short: Iran gives up its nuclear program, its missiles, its proxies, and the Strait — and in return gets sanctions relief and economic normalisation.
❌ Iran rejected the plan on March 25, calling it “excessive” and “theatre”, accusing Washington of “negotiating with itself”.
📺 Al Jazeera noted that Iranian officials and analysts “do not consider the 15-point plan as the beginning of a diplomatic process” but rather as a maximalist opening bid
🤝 Indirect talks in Pakistan (mediated by Oman and Pakistan) reveal hardline positions on both sides, with Iran demanding recognition of its control over the Strait and guarantees against future attacks.
📜 Iran responded with five demands: a permanent end to military operations, guarantees against further attacks, compensation for war damage, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the preservation of strategic capabilities (missile programme).
🗨️ Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, has expressed his willingness to negotiate a final agreement provided there are guarantees of stability and has ruled out any form of interim arrangement.
🇺🇸 However, Steve Witkoff remains in charge of these negotiations on the US side, and according to British officials who attended the previous failed negotiations, Witkoff appeared to act more like an ‘Israeli agent’. For some US congressmen, Trump entered this war precisely because he was poorly advised by these very same negotiators. Trump himself admitted to the press that he had made the decision based on comments from Witkoff and his son-in-law, not on US military intelligence reports.
🔄 Regime change in Iran or the US?
🎖️ Secretary of War Peter Hesset has dismissed Army Chief of Staff General Randy George and appointed interim replacement General Christopher Lanev.
⚔️ Hegseth fired three Army generals as part of what is now a sustained purge of senior U.S. military leadership. No official reason was given, but analysts and defense insiders point to George’s known skepticism about the pace and scale of U.S. military operations in Iran, and his institutional resistance to subordinating military advice to political loyalty tests.
🏛️ When Hesset was questioned by the congressmen, some of them had open confrontations with him in the questions. Hesset could not answer openly why these military positions had been dismissed, he merely replied: “They all served at the plesure of the president.
⚠️ In his first public remarks after being dismissed, former U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Randy George issued a stark warning, stating that “a madman will lead the great U.S. Army to destruction”. However, these words have not been verified by any media yet, only being viralized on social media.
🔫 According to The Telegraph, US sent weapons to Iran’s civilians to destabilize the country. Trump claimed he had dispatched “a lot of guns” to Iranian protesters through Kurdish militias, but believed the Kurds “kept them”.
🤖 Implications of the tech sector and its AI in the Iran conflict:
💻 Iran has opened a “third front” in the war — alongside kinetic military strikes and the Hormuz blockade — specifically targeting U.S. tech and AI infrastructure across the Gulf.
📡 Iran’s IRGC published an official list of 18 major U.S. tech companies operating in the Middle East, declaring them “legitimate military targets”. The named companies include: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle, IBM.
🧠 The threats would arise from the interconnection and synergy of all of them in the participation of US attacks and targets through companies such as Palantir, which provides AI-assisted targeting systems to the U.S. military
Market View.
📈 Markets appear to be responding positively to breaking news of a new proposal reportedly received by Iran via Pakistan from the United States.
📊 S&P 500 futures are attempting to break above the 6,650 level, which has acted as resistance in recent sessions.
📉 Nasdaq 100 futures are doing the same, testing the 23,350 area.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) is retreating sharply after once again reaching the 100 mark, triggering renewed upside momentum in EUR/USD, which has moved back above 1.1550 and is heading towards 1.1600.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are opening higher.
📈 The DAX 40 is approaching 23,400, while the Euro Stoxx 50 has moved back above 5,600.
🛢️ Brent crude is pulling back after trading above $110 per barrel in recent hours and is now below $108.
🥇 Gold futures are regaining strength following last Thursday’s pullback, climbing back above $4,700 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin moved above $69,500 in recent hours and is now attempting to stabilise above $69,000. Broadly speaking, however, it remains within the sideways range that has defined its price action so far in 2026.
