Market Report.
🔤 Alphabet (Google’s parent company) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings and revenue, with its cloud unit seeing a nearly 48% increase in revenue from a year earlier.
💰 Alphabet expects its capital expenditure for 2026 to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, which is at the higher end and more than double its previous year’s capex. This huge increase in projected spending spooked investors, causing Alphabet’s stock to fall up to 3% in extended trading.
🤖 Artificial intelligence-related stocks have been struggling this week, with AMD’s shares tanking 17.3% on its disappointing Q1 forecast. Other AI-focused companies like Broadcom and Oracle also saw their shares decline.
📉 The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index lost 1.51% and the S&P 500 retreated 0.51%, marking its fifth negative session in six. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53%, lifted by gains in Amgen and Honeywell.
💥 In just two days, hundreds of billions of dollars have been wiped off the value of stocks, bonds, and loans of companies across Silicon Valley, with the iShares Software ETF losing nearly $1 trillion in market value over the past week.
🌏 MSCI’s gauge of Asian tech shares sliding for the fifth time in six sessions. South Korea’s Kospi Index, known for its AI investments, led the losses, dropping 3.5%.
🧠 The current tech selloff is being driven by growing fears around the disruptive potential of AI across a wide range of industries, rather than just concerns about a bubble. The release of a new AI-powered legal tool by Anthropic has investors worried that AI innovations could rapidly disrupt various industries beyond just software development.
🚀 Meanwhile, Nvidia is nearing a $20 billion investment deal with OpenAI, while SpaceX is holding meetings with banks outside the U.S. for its planned IPO this year. Amazon is also upgrading its Alexa AI assistant.
🔔 The tech selloff has spread to other sectors, with precious metals also plunging.
⚖️ We were told that Bitcoin was a risky asset given its volatility, but silver, considered a traditional store of value, has fallen more than 17% in two hours. Attempts to shake smaller investors out of the market before continuing the upward spiral?
🥈 Silver’s volatility is exacerbated by its smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold, with price moves magnified by heavy speculative inflows and thin trading in the over-the-counter market.
🏦 The ECB is likely to signal that no policy move is imminent, even as the euro’s recent surge against the dollar fuels concerns about inflation undershooting its target. The BoE is expected to leave its options open about when it will cut rates again and keep its benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%.
📉 Despite sluggish growth and a weakening labor market, the BoE will want further evidence that inflation is falling towards its 2% target before considering a rate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey expects inflation to fall to around the BoE’s 2% target as soon as April or May, partly due to measures in the finance minister’s November budget.
💷 The recent weakening of the dollar against sterling could also help speed up the drop in inflation. However, continued strong pay growth could mean inflation picks up again, as the BoE’s survey showed wage growth expectations stuck at 3.7%.
🏭 If you cannot compete with China, you can intervene in the market, even if it harms the industry.
🌍 US is running efforts to partner with key allies to establish price floors and other measures to secure critical mineral supply chains.
🤝 The United States is developing plans with Mexico, the European Union, and Japan to implement minimum prices for critical minerals. The U.S. and Mexico will explore ways to implement price floors for critical mineral imports, and discuss how to implement those minimum prices in agreements with other nations.
⚠️ China has threatened Panama with political and economic consequences after the country’s Supreme Court ruled to void CK Hutchison’s contract to operate ports near the strategic Panama Canal.
🏛️ The court ruling was widely seen as a victory for the Trump administration’s security ambitions in the Western Hemisphere, as the White House has made blocking China’s influence over the Panama Canal a top priority.
🗣️ China’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office condemned the “logically flawed” and “utterly ridiculous” ruling, warning Panama that it “will inevitably pay a heavy price” if it does not change course.
⚖️ CK Hutchison, the Hong Kong-based company that held the contract to operate the ports, said it has launched international arbitration proceedings against Panama and will seek “extensive damages” over the ruling.
🛢️ Commodities: The black market for Russian and Iranian oil is facing increasing challenges as buyers shift to unsanctioned barrels, potentially forcing Moscow and Tehran to cut production or seek a deal to ease sanctions.
📦 Millions of barrels of unsold Iranian and Russian crude are now accumulating in storage, as buyers of sanctioned oil, notably India and Turkey, have been switching with ease to unsanctioned barrels from other sources.
⛽ The switch to unsanctioned barrels has made the mainstream oil market tighter, putting a floor under prices. The stockpile of sanctioned crude in the black market is now over 100 million barrels, worth at least $5 billion.
🇮🇳 India, a major buyer of sanctioned oil, has reduced its purchases of Russian crude by about 35% since mid-2025, as it secures alternative supplies from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas.
🇨🇳 China is the wildcard, as it currently purchases about 95% of Iran’s crude exports and 60% of Russia’s
🏢 In the corporate sphere, we highlight the movements of Novo Nordisk.
📉 Novo Nordisk’s stock plummeted 17% in Copenhagen early Wednesday, more than wiping out gains seen so far this year, after the company pre-released its 2026 forecast showing a 5-13% decline in both sales and operating profit.
💊 The company is facing challenges around pricing in the U.S. market due to competition from compounding pharmacies selling cheaper versions of semaglutide, as well as competition from rival Eli Lilly.
📦 While Novo’s launch of the Wegovy pill in the U.S. went better than expected, the price hit on the existing business is outweighing the strong initial performance of the new product.
📆 2025 was a historic year for Novo, with shares falling nearly 50% – the company’s worst year on record. Novo also inked a deal with the Trump administration to lower prices on its blockbuster drugs, and is facing patent expiries in some ex-U.S. markets in 2026.
🗨️ When asked if Novo Nordisk was in crisis, the CEO decisively answered “no”, stating the challenges have made the company more resilient.
🌐 Geopolitics.
🇬🇧 The Epstein case could also shake UK politics.
📜 The UK House of Commons voted to require the government to disclose all documents relating to Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador, as the judgment shown by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in appointing Mandelson came under scrutiny.
🕵️ Mandelson is a long-term friend of the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, and fresh Epstein papers released this week appeared to show Mandelson disclosing market-sensitive information while serving as a minister.
⚠️ The publication of the vetting files threatens to set up another challenging moment for Starmer, who is already considered vulnerable to a leadership challenge due to Labour’s poor standing in the polls and his own record disapproval rating.
🚔 The Metropolitan Police have asked the government not to release certain papers for fear of prejudicing their criminal investigation into Mandelson’s conduct. The vote on disclosing the Mandelson papers was forced by the opposition Conservative Party, using a rarely-used parliamentary procedure.
📈 Market View.
📊 Equity markets have come under renewed pressure. During yesterday’s session, S&P 500 futures fell to the 6,862‑point area before rebounding to around 6,920 points. The sharpest sell‑off was seen in the Nasdaq 100, which dropped below 24,800 points before recovering to approximately 25,100 points.
💵 The US dollar continues to strengthen gradually, with the DXY index approaching the 97.70‑point level. At the same time, there has been an alarming collapse in the metals market, particularly in silver, which plunged more than 17% in just two hours — price action more typical of crypto assets than precious metals. Gold futures fell towards the $4,800 per ounce area before rebounding in recent hours to around $4,953, attempting to reclaim the $5,000 level.
💱 In the FX market, losses in EUR/USD appear to be stalling, as the stronger dollar is increasingly priced in, with the pair seemingly forming a base around 1.18.
🛢️ The oil market has strengthened again, with spot Brent crude approaching $69.75 per barrel yesterday and currently trading near $68.45.
₿ Bitcoin continues to suffer heavy selling pressure, registering one new low after another in recent hours. The cryptocurrency fell below the $70,000 level, reaching $69,100, before rebounding to around $71,125.
