📉 Market Report.
📊 Yesterday, manufacturing indices in Europe were published as weaker than expected. Manufacturing indices in the UK, Spain, Italy, France and Germany were below 50, indicating economic contraction. Only the UK showed an improvement on expectations.
💸 Similarly, the inflation rates published yesterday in Europe reflect a core inflation rate that slowed to 2.4%, compared to the expected 2.5% and below the 2.6% recorded in the previous period. The harmonised inflation rate remained at 2.2%, in line with expectations, showing no significant changes. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in Europe fell slightly, from 6.2% to 6.1%, showing a slight improvement.
📈 Meanwhile, the US manufacturing index exceeded expectations, standing above the 50 range, indicating that the country is still expanding economically. The result was 50.2 compared to an expected 49.8. However, the March manufacturing ISM fell to 49, pointing to a slight contraction in that sector.
📉 An interesting figure was the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now indicator, which was significantly worse than expected, at -3.7% compared to the -2.8% estimated in the previous period. This suggests that the Atlanta Fed believes that the US economy is contracting rapidly, although it will be necessary to wait for the official data to confirm these figures.
⚡ Investors are bracing for “Liberation Day,” a highly anticipated announcement from President Trump set for Today at 20.00 GMT, which is expected to introduce sweeping new tariffs on imports from nearly every country. This bold trade plan, which follows previous tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos, as well as increased duties on Chinese goods, has heightened fears of a global trade war. With duties taking immediate effect, there is little room for negotiation, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp reactions and countries poised to retaliate. The uncertainty surrounding the scale and specifics of these measures continues to stoke concerns of a significant slowdown in the global economy.
💰 The White House is aiming to raise $700 billion annually in tariff revenue. Here we have the possible scenarios of Trump’s plan shared by Bloomberg:
🔢 A tiered tariff system with 10% and 20% rates for countries based on their tariff and non-tariff barriers against U.S. goods.
🔢 A more customized reciprocal plan with individualized tariff rates for each country.
🔢 A flat 20% global tariff on imports.
🔢 A more targeted approach applying tariffs of less than 20% to a narrower set of countries.
📱 President Trump will consider a final proposal related to TikTok Today, ahead of an April 5 deadline for the app to find a non-Chinese buyer or face a U.S. ban. Private equity firm Blackstone is in discussions to join ByteDance’s existing non-Chinese shareholders in contributing fresh capital to bid for TikTok’s U.S. business. Trump has said a deal with ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations will be struck before the April 5 deadline. The U.S. had previously threatened to ban the app on national security grounds. Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is also in talks to invest in TikTok as part of an effort led by Trump to gain control of the app, potentially by buying out Chinese investors.
🌍 The unanimity on Wall Street regarding the need to limit climate change is collapsing, leading to a reset in the $1.4 trillion global market for energy finance. U.S. banks that previously embraced net-zero targets are now discussing removing restrictions on controversial fossil fuel projects, as the White House prioritizes supporting oil, gas and coal. Executives at major U.S. banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo are discussing changes to their energy lending policies, potentially opening the door to financing projects they previously avoided.
🏦 The planned resurrection of a “Fair Access to Banking Act” under a Trump administration is expected to force U.S. banks to lift existing restrictions on financing activities like coal mining and oil sands production.
💡 The financial risk of supporting green technologies versus backing fossil fuel giants has become too big for many U.S. banks to ignore, as the old economy has come roaring back after the pandemic.
🌱 China is late to the green investment party, or perhaps it is taking over from the United States in this sector as well. While Wall Street is changing course in the hydrocarbon sector, China is about to finalise its first global green sovereign bond Today. The bond will be issued on the London Stock Exchange and will be worth 6 billion yuan (around $825 million). It will come in two parts – one with a 3-year maturity and the other with a 5-year maturity. Both bonds will have fixed interest rates, expected to be below 2%, depending on demand during the sale process. The sale is being overseen by eight banks from China and Europe.
🌏 China’s entry into the global green bond market has long been anticipated given the country’s size and status as the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases. The bond is part of China’s efforts to “attract international funds to support domestic green and low-carbon development.” Some of the specific uses of the funds raised include supporting China’s electric vehicle charging network and its national parks, as discussed with investors.
🚁 Future is now: Chinese regulatory bodies grant the country’s first authorisations to two companies to operate autonomous passenger drones (flying taxis).
🗺️ Geopolitics:
🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen’s hopes of running for the French presidency in 2027 have been boosted, as the Paris court of appeals said it should be able to deliver a ruling on her appeal by the summer of 2026. This is much sooner than expected by legal experts. Le Pen has appealed the conviction, and the court has now indicated it will review the case within a timeframe that should allow for a decision by the summer of 2026. This significantly improves Le Pen’s chances of overturning the election ban in time for the 2027 presidential race. The court’s decision to expedite the appeal process is therefore seen as a boost to Le Pen’s hopes of keeping her 2027 bid alive.
📊 Meanwhile, Bardella will continue to lead Le Pen’s party, RN, and according to the Harris Poll, leads in voting intentions with 36%.
🕊️ Senior Trump administration officials have acknowledged that the U.S. is unlikely to secure a peace deal in Ukraine in the next few months, as they had initially hoped. The administration is growing increasingly frustrated with both Kyiv and Moscow, as they see resistance from both sides to reaching a lasting peace agreement. Officials have discussed new plans to pressure both Ukraine and Russia to make concessions.
💢 Specifically, the administration is angry with Ukraine’s handling of the negotiations and its reluctance to move forward with a proposed minerals deal with the U.S. At the same time, officials are increasingly frustrated with Russian President Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate. The White House is considering additional tariffs and sanctions on Russia as a way to pressure Moscow, though one senior official acknowledged that economic punishments may not be enough to sway Putin.
⚔️ The Trump administration is facing a diplomatic dilemma as its escalating military and diplomatic campaign against Yemen’s Houthis is fueling broader tensions with Iran across the Middle East. President Trump has authorized decisive, targeted strikes against Houthi-related sites in Yemen, accusing Iran of providing the group with arms, intelligence, and financial support. This is part of a broader US strategy to dismantle Tehran’s regional influence. This is a complex situation, balancing aggressive containment strategies against Iran and the Houthis with the risks of broader regional escalation that could undermine its goals.
☢️ Iran’s top advisor has warned that if threatened by the U.S. or Israel, the country may have “no choice” but to pursue nuclear weapons for defense. U.S. intelligence observes a shift in Iran’s longstanding taboo against discussing nuclear arms, while Trump intensifies threats of unprecedented bombings if Iran rejects a new deal. Amid escalating tensions, Iran has summoned the Swiss envoy as both sides risk being drawn into a war neither desires. The increasing provocations and dire warnings raise the specter of a potential nuclear crisis with global implications.
🔴 Russia has issued a stark warning about “catastrophic consequences” if Iran is attacked, condemning U.S. ultimatums under Trump as attempts to impose its will. Offering to mediate between the U.S. and its strategic partner Iran, Moscow pushes for a “reasonable agreement” while cautioning that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could have disastrous outcomes. Following Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and threats of bombings and tariffs to force a new pact, tensions have escalated, raising the risk of a dangerous regional conflict.
📈 Market View:
🌐 A tense calm awaits the unveiling of Trump’s plan for ‘America’s Day of Liberation’.
📉 Mini S&P 500 futures attempted to reach 5,700 points during last night’s session. However, selling pressure caused the index to fall back to 5,665 points. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures attempted to exceed 19,700 points, but also fell back, currently trading at 19,565 points.
💵 The dollar index remains practically static, with minimal movements around 104.25 points. This has kept the EUR/USD pair within a narrow range, unable to exceed the 1.08 level.
📊 Generally, this type of behaviour could be an indication that volatility will skyrocket after Trump’s announcement scheduled for today.
📉 In Europe, DAX 40 futures managed a significant rebound yesterday, approaching 22,800 points. However, they have fallen back slightly to the current 22,675 points. Similarly, the EuroStoxx 50 rose above 5,250 points, but also fell back, now trading at 5,240 points.
🛢️ Oil continues to show strength, with Brent crude yesterday exceeding $75 a barrel. However, according to our graphs, a clear upward trend could face a correction in the next few hours, which could bring prices down to levels close to $73 a barrel.
🪙 Gold continues to ride the crest of the wave, currently trading at $3,145 per ounce, very close to the all-time highs reached on Monday.
🥈 Silver, meanwhile, has also made significant gains, but is still far from its all-time highs. The $35 zone could act as resistance, generating possible sales.
₿ As for Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has staged a lightning recovery after a sudden overnight drop, when it reached almost $81,000. Since then, it has rebounded upwards, currently standing at $84,000.
