📊 Market Report:
🪙 The BoE decides today whether to cut rates or not. The current 5.25% is the highest in 16 years. UK inflation is currently below Europe and the US. It also has higher inflation in services. Polls show that a 0.25% cut is overwhelmingly expected, but the MPC vote looks tight at 5-4. Growth in the UK economy has surprised to the upside recently, and the government’s fiscal expansion plans may make monetary easing less necessary.
📉 Japan’s stock market, the world’s second largest after Wall Street, falls after Yen rises on BoJ action. Nikkei down almost 4%. Contractions expected in all sectors, exports, autos and real estate.
🛢️ Oil prices rose by more than 4.5% since Tuesday, with Brent rising above $81/barrel on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran ordered a retaliatory strike against Israel for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, raising tensions in the Middle East. Iran also accused Israel of assassinating a senior Hezbollah member in Beirut shortly before. The US has mobilised several navy warships in the direction of Israel.
🛡️ – Israel has US military support and unacknowledged nuclear weapons.
🔗 – Iran has Russian military support, and it is presumed that it may have unrecognised nuclear weapons.
🛢️ Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies meet today for a routine review, where delegates expect no change in plans to increase production from the fourth quarter.
📈 Some tech stocks have risen explosively in the last 48 hours. Meta more than 14% and Nvidia more than 18%. Meta presented results, where it claims that thanks to AI, its advertising business is becoming more profitable.
🔍 Market View:
📉 Mini SP500 futures manage to recover a good part of the losses and pause after approaching 5600 points. Nasdaq 100 follows suit and pulls back slightly after a spectacular rally to 19600. Some companies in the technology sector, as mentioned above, made a spectacular recovery during the last 48 hours. If we take into account the weighted weight of these companies on the selective indices, this reaction in the indices is understandable.
⚠️ More worrying is the situation of the Russell 2000 index, which started yesterday’s session rising strongly and breaking through resistance, only to later lose all its gains with a fall of almost 2%.
📉 Asian stock markets fell. the HSI the Hong Kong tries to recover the 17,500 points after the loss of support last week. the Nikkei index fell sharply as it reacts to the movements of the Bank of Japan, as we have already indicated above, and is probably approaching the next supports in the area of 35,700 points.
📉 European stock markets fall in today’s session. Dax 40 falls back after the price recovery and has lost 18,300 points during the session, currently trading at 18368 points.
💵 The dollar index DXY continues to climb slowly towards 104.50 points. The EUR/USD, meanwhile, is back down, losing 1.08 points. Bitcoin has fallen more than 9% since last week and is again approaching support in the $63,000 area, currently trading at $64,400.
🌍 Geopolitics:
📜 Summary of the situation in the Middle East. Following Israel’s attack on the Lebanese capital, Hezbollah declared that they are preparing a military response. They also claimed not to be involved in the missile that killed several Israelis in the Golan Heights. The Hamas leader was reportedly killed in Teran by an Israeli drone after detecting his geolocation on his personal phone. The US Secretary of State has informed the news network CNA that Washington was not aware of or involved in the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. In addition, the US carried out air strikes on Iraqi militias planning to attack US troops in the area.
🇲🇦 Macron changes his position and backs the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara after more than 30 years of dispute. He thus breaks with the EU’s official position, which supported the idea of a referendum in the region. Macron’s decision has infuriated Algeria, which has recalled its ambassador to France. The challenge now is to see how the EU manages to maintain prosperous trade relations with Algeria in energy, and with Morocco in fishing waters.
