- This week, despite the holiday in the major stock markets, one of the world’s largest economies has presented interesting data. Japan published yesterday an inflation rate of 2.7% against the expected 3%. This could pause the Bank of Japan’s urgent need to tighten monetary policy, which could ease the USDJPY again.
- On the other hand, the US 2-year bond auction ended with a yield of 4.3% versus the expected 4.8%, positive news that would indicate a decrease in the pressure on interest rates.
- Today, Wednesday, we will also see the results of the US 5-year bond auction, as well as Japan’s industrial production which is expected to be -1.6%.
- For tomorrow, we will have data from the US, releasing initial jobless claims, pending home sales and crude oil inventories.
- As a reminder, last week the US closed its stock markets with a month-on-month inflation decline of minus 0.1% PCE data. expectations, given Powell’s own words, a possible 75 basis point interest rate cut, which has produced unbridled optimism in the markets, which hit record highs.
- keep in mind that the next Fed meeting will be at the end of January, 30-31 Jan. Until then, macro data releases will invite speculation.
- On the international scene, the conflict in Israel and Gaza is not over, and there is still a very high risk of it spreading to other regions. Yemen’s Hutis continue to attack ships crossing the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait of the Red Sea, thus establishing a blockade on Israel’s commercial traffic. Their ships must skirt the entire west coast of Africa on a journey that takes more than a month to reach Israeli ports.
- The United States is trying to form a coalition to protect Israel’s interests in the Red Sea. Israel’s own defense minister said on Tuesday that they have seven fronts open. “We are in a multi-front war and are coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), Iraq, Yemen and Iran,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
- The US is patrolling the Red Sea with an aircraft carrier, but has not yet retaliated against Yemen. It has also attacked rebel positions in Iraq, Israel in Syria, and Turkey in northern Syria. We are witnessing a complex and delicate balance of power in the Middle East region. As a result, energy markets seem to be under some stress. We have seen the last few days increases in crude oil and gas futures, especially European Gas. Nevertheless, the winter is going smoothly for the energy markets in this region.
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