๐Ÿ“ˆ Macro-News round-up

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๐Ÿ“Š Yesterday, the US equities markets were feeling upbeat. The NASDAQ jumped 0.39% while the S&P 500 gained 0.56%.
Macro data from Europe is quiet, awaiting the Fed’s rate decision. Rates are expected to remain at 5.50% in the US.

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK: Interest rate decreases in the next months are made possible by the minor slowdown in British inflation in February, which was less than anticipated by the Bank of England. The BoE keeps a careful eye on services inflation, which decreased to 6.1% from 6.5% in January as anticipated last month. The service sector remains the Achilles heel for the U.K. and U.S. economies. In the UK, the unemployment rate is below 4%, which puts upward pressure on wages and makes it difficult to lower prices in the employment-intensive service sector.

๐Ÿ’น The PPI indices, released this morning, continue to come out negative in the UK and Germany. This has a double reading, on the one hand, positive because it removes the risks of a rebound in inflation. On the other hand, negative, as it indicates a weakened production activity.

๐ŸŒ Asia: Let’s remember that yesterday we had the news of the end of negative interest rates from the Bank of Japan. And that the result, as we shared in social networks with charts, was contradictory. The Yen weakened and Japanese bond yields fell. The opposite result to what would be expected with rate hikes. Japan’s trade balance data will be released tonight. Perhaps this will encourage investors, who are closely following not only the evolution of the Japanese economy, but also its trade relations with China, which has a high impact on the markets.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China: China released early this morning the interest rates for 1 to 5 year loans. The data was in line with expectations, with no news. USDCNY is still hovering around 7.20. Yesterday, the CSI 300 dipped 0.72% and the Hang Seng sank 1.24%.

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan has published its export data. Quite lower than expected values. Exports fell by -10.4% against expectations of a 1.3% rise, and with export orders up 1.9% from the previous period.

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Commodities: Russian refined product supply risks are still supporting the market at a time when it is expected to tighten after OPEC+’s rollover of extra voluntary cuts into the second quarter of 2024. According to estimates, at least 600k barrels per day of Russian refining capacity has been impacted by Ukrainian drone assaults. However, the exact quantity of affected capacity differs. Although European GAS stocks are above 60%, peak levels for the end of the heating season, the GAS market is responding bullishly. Possibly influenced by the crude oil market. The US-based Freeport LNG facility’s supply reductions will also have contributed to the cause. In any case, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report will be released later today.

๐ŸŒ Geopolitics: Even though Washington has practically run out of money to continue arming Ukrainian forces, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a warning yesterday that the country’s existence was in risk and attempted to persuade allies of Washington’s commitment to Kyiv. Experts at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center in Washington say it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince Europe to continue committing its budgets to the war in Ukraine.

โš ๏ธ That said, yesterday a political meeting went viral, with Donald Trump calling Zelensky, the best salesman in the world. “Every time he comes to the country he walks away with 50 or 60 billion dollars.”

๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ According to Russian intelligence, a rumour spread in the media on Tuesday that France is sending 2000 men to the Ukrainian territory. The Macron government has denied this.

๐Ÿ”ฎ Finally, former Senator Ron Paul, and General Flynn, both of them, have almost simultaneously warned that a Black Swan event could happen soon. Perhaps in line with Trump’s crazy idea that the current elites will not admit his victory and will create some event to disrupt the election.

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