Market Report: Your Daily Brief
The Iran deal is signed, but the battle over its legacy is just beginning 🤝. Gold is plummeting, the dollar is surging, and US stocks are taking a breather – while oil refuses to budge. Here’s why.
📉 Gold craters as DXY surges past 101 – The dollar hit its highest level of the year, driven by a hawkish Fed pivot. Gold plunged below $4,155/oz. The yen hit 162 – levels not seen since 1990. The Fed’s tough stance is reshaping everything.
📝 The Economist: “A glorious failure” – Netanyahu’s ambitious goals – deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program, degrade its missile capability, weaken the regime – were not met. Iran’s nuclear program was set back but not eliminated. Its regime survived. Substantial missile stockpiles remain. The US admitted it was running out of oil reserves.
🇮🇱🇺🇸 US‑Israel rift deepens – JD Vance delivered a sharp rebuke: “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have left.” He reminded Israel that two‑thirds of its defense weapons come from the US. Netanyahu’s political survival hangs by a thread as elections loom.
🌍 A new Middle East order – The “axis of resistance” and the Abraham Accords have both collapsed, according to El Mercurio. Regional states are hedging – the UAE repairs ties with Tehran, Saudi Arabia supported Pakistani‑mediated diplomacy, and Turkey unveiled an ICBM. No one trusts a single patron anymore.
🛢️ Oil bottomed but won’t bounce – JD Vance confirmed 12 million barrels passed through Hormuz overnight, a post‑conflict high. But analysts warn significant supply disruptions remain, and a reckoning is expected later this year. Traders are pricing gradual improvement, not a snapback.
🏦 Central banks diverge – J.P. Morgan pushed its BoE hike forecast from July to November. The ECB’s Lane says the eurozone is resilient enough for higher rates, but warns energy prices haven’t fully normalized. A 2.50% neutral rate may be the new floor.
📊 Market snapshot – S&P 500 futures at 7,535. Nasdaq 100 at 30,525. DXY above 101. Oil rebounds to $80.50. Gold at $4,155. Bitcoin loses $63,800 support, now $62,730.
#IranDeal #DollarSurge #GoldCrash #USIsrael #OilMarkets #Bitcoin #Markets
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Gonzalo Canete – Economist & Global Chief Market Analyst
