Market Report.
📅 Markets face a packed and potentially volatile week with several major policy and economic events on the calendar: Monday — the Federal Reserve injects $5.058 billion in liquidity; Tuesday — Bank of Japan interest rate decision; Wednesday — Federal Reserve interest rate decision; Thursday — update on the Fed’s balance sheet; Friday — U.S. GDP report.
🌍 The two major events over the weekend were the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran, and a new assassination attempt against President Donald Trump.
🇮🇷 Iran has proposed a three-stage negotiation framework to the US via intermediaries (primarily Pakistan-mediated), according to Al-Mayadeen’s correspondent in Tehran.
🛑 Stage 1 as non-negotiable priority: complete end to current war/hostilities plus binding security guarantees preventing conflict recurrence against Iran and Lebanon, with Tehran explicitly refusing to discuss nuclear program, Hormuz management, or other issues until Stage 1 is fully secured and agreed.
🚢 Stage 2 addresses Strait of Hormuz management and administration through full coordination with Oman to establish new legal framework governing waterway operations, representing Iran’s commitment to resolving critical global shipping corridor crisis only after achieving security guarantees, demonstrating sequential diplomatic prioritization.
☢️ Stage 3, contingent upon successful Stage 1 and Stage 2 agreements, focuses on Iran’s nuclear program discussions, representing significant Iranian concession to address Western concerns about uranium enrichment and weapons development only after de-escalation and regional stability issues are resolved through binding commitments.
🏛️ According to Axios, President Donald Trump is set to convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room today with senior national security and foreign policy officials to discuss the next steps regarding Iran, signaling continued high‑level deliberations as tensions persist.
📞 President Trump stated Iran could telephone or visit to negotiate ending their two-month war, emphasizing Iran can never possess nuclear weapons as non-negotiable precondition, while Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi shuttled between mediators Pakistan and Oman before heading to Russia to meet President Putin.
🇷🇺 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has “always had close consultations with Russia, especially on regional issues,” describing Moscow as a key diplomatic partner. He said that the conflict he referred to as the “Ramadan war” between the U.S. and Iran created a temporary “gap in meetings.”
✈️ After recent trips to Pakistan and Oman, Araghchi said a third visit was arranged to Russia in order to “consult with our Russian friends on developments related to the war and the current situation,” signaling renewed coordination amid ongoing tensions.
❌ Peace talks stalled after Trump cancelled his envoys’ planned Islamabad visit on Saturday, citing insufficient Iranian offer and excessive travel costs. Iranian President Pezeshkian rejected “imposed negotiations” under threats or blockade conditions, insisting United States remove maritime blockade and other obstacles before substantive negotiations begin.
📜 Iran demands U.S. remove obstacles before negotiations begin, specifically requesting lifting of maritime blockade on Iranian ports, compensation for war damages, implementation of new legal regime over Strait of Hormuz, and guarantees against renewed military aggression by “warmongers.”
🤝 Iran proposed through Pakistani mediators reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending warfare with nuclear negotiations postponed to later stage, signaling willingness to separate immediate conflict resolution from longer-term nuclear program discussions, according to Axios reporting citing unnamed U.S. officials.
🧠 Jake Sullivan, who served as National Security Advisor in the Biden administration, argued that Iran’s strong sense of national pride makes capitulation unlikely and that U.S. pressure tactics could prove counterproductive. He said Iranians “truly despise anything that smacks of surrender or bowing to pressure,” and warned that Tehran would resist any outcome perceived as backing down under military or rhetorical coercion. In his view, Washington would need to scale back what he described as maximalist demands to reach a sustainable agreement.
🔎 Now, let’s examine the particulars of the shooting that occurred during President Trump’s gala dinner.
📝 Cole Allen, a 31-year-old California teacher, sent a 1,052-word manifesto to family members approximately 10 minutes before attempting to shoot President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday. Allen’s manifesto stated he believed it was his righteous duty to target Trump administration officials, claiming he could no longer permit “a pedophile, rapist, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes,” indicating deep political conviction motivating the assassination attempt and violent action.
⚖️ Allen addressed anticipated objections to his planned violence through religious and philosophical rebuttals, yielding to unlawful authority violates constitutional principles requiring citizens’ resistance. Allen hypothetically compared his infiltration to potential Iranian agent capabilities.
🕵️ Former CIA officer Larry Johnson has alleged that the shooting at a Trump hotel was “completely staged,” claiming the Secret Service deliberately broke protocol by evacuating Sen. JD Vance before then‑President Donald Trump.
📺 White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt urged viewers to tune in, saying President Donald Trump would “bring the heat” and that there would be “shots fired,” remarks that drew heightened attention given reports of an alleged shooting incident tied to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD).
🎥 Some commentators claimed that Fox News briefly cut away from a reporter after the term “staged shooting” was mentioned, though there has been no official confirmation supporting allegations that the incident was fabricated. The WHCD later resumed its program.
🏗️ President Trump referenced the episode as an example of why he believes a new White House ballroom is needed. UFC CEO Dana White, who was reportedly in attendance, described the night as a “crazy, unique experience,” saying he took in every moment.
🛢️ Brent oil futures rose over 1% to $106.56 per barrel while U.S. crude oil added 0.9% to $95.25 after second-round U.S.-Iran peace negotiations unraveled, with price increases reflecting market concerns about prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade and potential supply disruptions from ongoing Middle East tensions.
📡 Japanese television networks treated the arrival of a single oil tanker from the United States as a major news event, underscoring the heightened sensitivity around energy supplies and the broader geopolitical tensions affecting global oil markets.
🚢 US sanctions against Chinese companies.
💼 OFAC announced sanctions limiting approximately 40 shipping companies and tankers involved in shadow fleet transporting Iranian oil, directly targeting covert maritime networks facilitating Iran’s oil exports to global markets, representing coordinated effort disrupting Iran’s alternative shipping infrastructure circumventing traditional sanctions.
🏭 U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co., one of China’s smaller “teapot” oil refineries described as “one of Tehran’s most valued customers,” targeting critical Iranian oil sales channel and demonstrating escalating economic pressure on Tehran’s energy sector revenue generation.
⚠️ Trump highlighted China’s role assisting Iran’s war efforts, telling CNBC U.S. caught boat with “gift” from China, cryptically referencing possible war supplies for Tehran and signaling potential future sanctions against Chinese entities supporting Iranian military capabilities or energy sector.
🌐 Sanctions targeting Chinese refinery specifically demonstrates U.S. willingness sanctioning third-country entities facilitating Iranian oil sales, potentially signaling broader pressure campaign against Chinese companies engaged Iran trade and warning Beijing of consequences for supporting Tehran economically.
🚗 BYD has unveiled its new electric supercar, the Denza Z, in Beijing, showcasing headline performance figures that position it among the most powerful EVs on the market. The company says the vehicle delivers around 1,000 horsepower, accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in under two seconds, offers a range of roughly 600 kilometers, and can add significant charge in just five minutes. The reported starting price in China is about $125,000, highlighting intensifying competition in the high‑performance electric segment.
📈 China’s industrial firm profits grew 15.8% year-over-year in March, marking fastest pace in six months, with first-quarter industrial profits rising 15.5% as economic growth accelerated to 5% after hitting three-year low, indicating uneven recovery amid broader economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks from Iran conflict.
⚖️ Growing economic divergence exists beneath surface recovery: artificial intelligence-related sectors remain buoyant with Shannon Semiconductor posting 79-fold first-quarter net profit surge from strong AI electronics demand, while consumer-facing sectors struggle with chronically weak domestic demand limiting pricing and volumes. Contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand persists, requiring resolution according to National Bureau of Statistics statistician Yu Weining.
🤖 Structural change also in the US economy. Companies invest heavily in AI while eliminating human workforce.
💻 In US, Meta and Microsoft announced combined 20,000+ potential job cuts Thursday as companies spending hundreds of billions annually on AI infrastructure simultaneously slash workforce, with Meta cutting 10% (8,000 jobs) and Microsoft offering first-ever voluntary buyouts affecting approximately 8,750 U.S. employees, signaling AI-driven labor transformation.
🔄 AI represents “fundamental structural shift rather than temporary market correction,” suggesting permanent transformation in work organization across industries beyond temporary pandemic-driven overhiring corrections.
📊 Tech sector experiencing largest year-over-year employee confidence decline of any industry, dropping 6.8 percentage points to 47.2% in March, with Glassdoor data showing fewer workers quitting jobs due to market instability fears.
🏢 Nike announced 1,400 layoffs Thursday concentrated in technology department, demonstrating AI-driven job cuts extending beyond pure tech companies into traditional industries adopting AI infrastructure. Snap cut 16% workforce (1,000 staffers) citing AI-driven efficiencies, Salesforce eliminated 4,000 customer support roles, Oracle laying off thousands while ramping AI spending. Amazon leading layoff pace with 30,000+ cuts since October representing 10% corporate/tech workforce, while conducting ongoing rolling layoffs across company, with Google executing small regular cuts since 2023.
💰 Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon collectively expected to spend nearly $700 billion this year on AI infrastructure buildouts despite simultaneous mass layoffs, creating apparent contradiction.
Market View.
🌪️ It has been a turbulent weekend, but without major new developments and with limited impact on markets.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are opening at record highs, currently trading around 7,190, in what appears to be a pause as investors await further news.
📊 Nasdaq 100 futures also opened at fresh highs before easing slightly to around 27,445, as markets consolidate ahead of potential new developments.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) has retreated to 98.12, while EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.1730.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are opening broadly in line with Friday’s levels, with DAX 40 futures near 24,300 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures around 5,835.
🛢️ Oil prices are rising again, with spot Brent crude trading above $101 per barrel, as markets continue to monitor developments between the United States and Iran.
🥇 Gold futures remain largely unchanged compared with last week, trading around $4,730 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin approached the $79,500 level for the second time in less than a week but has since pulled back sharply to around $77,700.
