Market Report.
🤝 The trio JD Vance, Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner left Islamabad without a deal with Iran after 21 hours of negotiations.
⚖️ Radically separate positions.
🇮🇷 During talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Iran’s delegation reportedly outlined several non‑negotiable conditions for any potential peace agreement with the United States, according to Middle East Spectator.
🛢️ These included Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations and sanctions relief, the unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and a permanent ceasefire across all fronts. Notably, the long‑standing red line regarding uranium enrichment was absent from the reported list.
🇺🇸 A U.S. official outlined Washington’s demands, which reportedly include a complete end to uranium enrichment, the dismantling of remaining nuclear facilities, and the transfer of highly enriched uranium. The list also calls for Iran to accept a broader regional peace and de‑escalation framework, cease funding groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, and ensure full, toll‑free access through the Strait of Hormuz.
💰 Additionally, the official referenced determining the amount of frozen Iranian funds that could be released under a potential agreement.
🗣️ JD Vance: “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the US. So, we go back … they have chosen not to accept our terms”
🚢 Trump’s response: Announce a naval blockade to break the naval blockade.
⚓ Trump: Effective Immediately, from this moment, the United States Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blockading any ship that wants to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz.
🚨 The U.S. Navy will blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz effective immediately. The blockade will remain until Iran allows all ships to freely enter and exit without claims of mines or threats. It was later confirmed that the blockade began at 10 am today.
🛑 Any ship that has paid a toll to Iran will be intercepted; those paying illegal tolls will not have safe passage.
💣 Any Iranian who fires at U.S. forces or peaceful vessels will face severe retaliation (“BLOWN TO HELL” in Trump’s words). The U.S. is “LOCKED AND LOADED” and prepared to complete military action if needed.
🔄 The contradictions persist.
🌍 Last week Iran was accussed of break international rules with its naval blockade, preventing the free circulation of goods between countries. Now US joins international violations and the blockade.
🛢️ In any case, the US had already interfered with shipping before Iran did. Have you forgotten the persecution and assault of oil tankers following the US intervention in Venezuela? This also constituted an interruption of the free circulation of international trade.
🇮🇱 According to Yediot Ahronoth, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has placed the Israel Defense Forces on heightened alert and instructed them to be prepared for an immediate return to hostilities with Iran, following the reported collapse of talks between Washington and Tehran.
🔥 Public opinion remains heated over the current situation.
📺 Last week, Trump called some journalists, such as Tucker Carlson, traitors. Carlson was later interviewed on the BBC and called Trump a ‘slave’. When asked what he meant by that, he replied that Trump was obviously not free to make decisions, given that within hours of announcing a ceasefire last week, Israel broke the terms of the agreement, forcing him to continue the conflict.
🗳️ Reminder: JD Vance couldn’t stand Trump in the 2016 election, in his own words:
📝 “I think there’s a chance, if I feel like Trump he’s a really good chance of winning, that I might have to hold my nose and vote for Hillary Clinton. I think that I’m going to vote third party because I can’t stomach Trump. I think that he’s noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place” said Vance in 2016.
🇪🇺 Europe refuses to join Trump in the war and negotiates with Iran:
📰 According to CNN, France and Italy are currently negotiating directly with Iran to obtain permission for their ships to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal corroborated the CNN report, stating that the negotiations are an effort by European nations to secure an exemption from Iran’s control over the critical oil chokepoint.
🚢 France and Italy are seeking to protect their economic interests and ensure the continued flow of oil and trade through the strategically important waterway.
📡 Reuters also covered the story, noting that the talks are taking place as the U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, further disrupting global energy flows.
🇪🇸 Spain’s foreign minister said on Friday that he had spoken with his Iranian counterpart and urged him to negotiate in good faith during talks with the United States in Islamabad.
🗣️ “I encourage Iran — this is what I conveyed to the Iranian foreign minister — to take part in those negotiations and to participate in good faith,” Jose Manuel Albares told the press, adding that he had spoken with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, “the day before yesterday” and had also asked him to halt “all missile and drone launches”.
⚖️ Albares once again slammed Israel for continuing its attacks on Lebanon, where it has been fighting Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. “Lebanon is a disgrace on the conscience of humanity. The level of violence, the violation of international law and international humanitarian law by Israel is unacceptable,” Albares said.
🇰🇷 Criticism also comes from South Korea. Seol understands Israeli pain, but nothing justifies what their government is doing now, especially when the fallout is hitting the entire world.“We cannot stand idly by while such acts continue and their repercussions reach even our own people. We urge Israel to break free as soon as possible from the chain of hatred where the memory of victimhood leads to further perpetration.” The core quote you provided comes directly from Park Hong-geun, South Korea’s Minister of Planning and Budget.
📈 Tensions between Europe and Israel continue to rise.
📰 According to The Jelusamen Post, Israel has refused to allow France to participate in the upcoming direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, which are scheduled to begin on April 14, 2026 in Washington. This marks the first formal direct contact between Israel and Lebanon, which have no diplomatic relations.
🚫 The reasoning behind excluding France is that it is viewed as an “unfair” or “biased mediator” due to its actions over the past year, specifically: Initiatives that tried to limit Israel’s military operations against Iran, A lack of willingness to take concrete steps to help Lebanon disarm Hezbollah.
🇪🇸 On the other hand, Netanyahu accuses Spain of waging “a diplomatic war” against Israel: “It will pay an immediate price. I am not willing to tolerate this hypocrisy or this hostility
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Tensions between the US and China over the Iran conflict.
🛰️ U.S. intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems, specifically shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, to Iran within the next few weeks. This comes as Iran is using the current ceasefire to restock its depleted weapons systems after weeks of strikes that damaged its air defenses and missile capabilities.
⚠️ President Trump has warned China that it will have “big problems” if it goes through with the reported weapons transfer, though he did not provide further details.
🕊️ China has denied the allegations, urging the U.S. to stop “baseless allegations” and focus on de-escalation, while reaffirming its role in ceasefire efforts.
🤖 ABC News: Confirmed MizarVision’s AI-enhanced imagery is being used by Iran’s IRGC for targeting.
📡 Chinese firm MizarVision used AI, satellite imagery, and flight and ship tracking data to map US carrier movements, aircraft concentrations, air defense configurations, and pre-strike buildup during the war.The company holds certifications tied to China’s military standards.
💼 Trump’s trade war remains simmering.
🚗 President Donald Trump voiced frustration over the growing presence of Chinese-made vehicles in Europe, arguing that they are “destroying” the market by taking business away from established automakers such as Mercedes and BMW. He contrasted the situation with the United States, stating that “we don’t have any Chinese cars in our country” “because I put a 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles.”
💊 But the European pharmaceutical and biochemical industry also seems to be retreating into a commercial crossfire.
🏭 Europe is being squeezed between aggressive U.S. trade and drug pricing policies, as well as China’s explosive growth in the biotech sector. The pharma industry is a cornerstone of Europe’s economy, but the continent’s declining competitiveness has companies looking to invest elsewhere.
📊 Uncertainty around U.S. policies like “most-favored-nation” pricing has given pharma companies leverage to negotiate with European governments on drug prices and regulations. Meanwhile, China has emerged as a leader in biotech innovation, with Chinese-developed molecules now representing nearly a third of the global pipeline. The U.S. share of global R&D has jumped to 55%, while Europe’s has plummeted to 26% over the past decades.
🇭🇺 Hungary and Europe’s possible change of course.
🗳️ Over in Europe, Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader Viktor Orban conceded defeat following a landslide election victory by the upstart opposition Tisza party, marking a major setback for his allies in Russia and Washington.
🇺🇦 Orbán was the only leader who had openly opposed the conflict in Ukraine, effectively blocking further funds from being sent to the country. He also accused the European bureaucratic elites of being warmongers.
📜 Orbán was considered a populist nationalist. In March last year, he published a manifesto setting out demands for the European Union, including: national sovereignty and a strong veto power for national governments; protecting Europe’s Christian heritage; ‘Let us not mortgage our grandchildren’s future’; ‘Clear the Union’s debt’; ‘Let our National Guard protect our borders’; ‘Do not bring in any more migrants and expel those who arrived illegally’.
📰 Orban’s sympathies for Trump and Putin were also well known, with headlines in 2025 such as: ‘Orban defies the EU: Calls for dialogue with Russia now that the new US administration is not prohibiting Europe from having diplomatic relations with its neighbour’.
Market View.
🛢️ As we anticipated since Wednesday, negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed.
📈 Oil prices have rebounded, with spot Brent crude moving back above $100 per barrel, currently trading around $101.65.
🌪️ This has triggered renewed volatility at the start of Monday’s session. The US dollar index (DXY) climbed towards 99.20 before easing slightly to 98.95, creating turbulence across major currency pairs. EUR/USD, which closed Friday above 1.1700, has pulled back to approximately 1.1690.
📉 US futures opened on a weaker footing.
📊 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are attempting to stabilise above 6,800, while Nasdaq 100 futures are trying to consolidate above 25,100.
🇪🇺 In Europe, a similar pattern has emerged, with futures opening below Friday’s close.
📉 The DAX 40 is trading around 23,750, while the Euro Stoxx 50 stands near 5,800.
🥇 Gold futures initially dropped to around $4,625 per ounce at the open but have since recovered to approximately $4,750.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin approached $74,000 on Saturday but has retreated sharply to around $70,765, once again testing the patience of crypto traders.
