Market Report.
📈 Significant progress on the stock market with US futures at historical highs. A step demanded by Iran for an agreement with the US has been achieved, ceasefire in Lebanon. After days of diplomatic pressure from Tehran, President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day ceasefire in Lebanon, set to take effect at 5 p.m. EST (midnight local time), in an effort to pause hostilities and create space for further negotiations.
🚀 In less than two weeks, the S&P 500 futures have gone up by more than 10%, which is “totally normal”. It has been going up without any interruptions, except for two stop sessions, and there have been no corrections. What could go wrong?
🤝 Signs of cautious optimism have also emerged regarding diplomacy with Tehran, as President Donald Trump said that “the war in Iran is going along swimmingly” and predicted that it “should be ending pretty soon.” Speaking at an event in Las Vegas, Trump reiterated similar forecasts he has made since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February.
☢️ President Donald Trump said that Iran has “agreed not to have a nuclear weapon,” describing the commitment as unequivocal. He added that Tehran has also agreed to hand over what he referred to as “the nuclear dust,” suggesting the transfer of sensitive nuclear material as part of a potential agreement.
🏛️ Meanwhile, in the US, congressmen are also seeking a ceasefire, but against Trump’s war.
🗳️ The House of Representatives narrowly rejected a resolution aimed at ending President Trump’s war with Iran, with the measure failing by a single vote, 213–214. Only one Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden, broke with his party to vote alongside Republicans, effectively allowing the war effort to continue.
💥 Irreparable damage to the global energy sector:
🌍 The war’s damage to physical infrastructure and sense of security associated with liquified natural gas (LNG) will be longer-term, forcing countries to find alternatives to LNG.
🔥 Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, which supplies nearly a fifth of global LNG exports, suffered significant damage in March as Iran retaliated against American and Israeli bombing. The strikes on the Qatar LNG facility helped trigger the global gas supply crunch, and Qatar’s finance minister warned of bigger economic fallout if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened soon.
⚠️ The full extent of the war’s collateral damage on the global energy system may be yet to be seen, as countries are forced to move away from their reliance on LNG as a “bridge fuel” to renewables.
⛽ Europe runs out of fuel.
🛫 Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel remaining, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, who described the current disruption as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” the Associated Press reported.
🪖 Could EU also be running out of weapons?
🇺🇸 The ongoing Iran war is forcing the U.S. to prioritize its weapons deliveries to the Middle East, leading to delays for some key European allies and potentially undermining their defense capabilities in the short term.
📦 The U.S. has informed some European countries, including in the Baltic region and Scandinavia, that previously contracted weapons deliveries are likely to be delayed due to the ongoing Iran war.
🇪🇺 European officials have complained that the delays are putting them in a difficult position in terms of their defense readiness, as they had been encouraged by the U.S. to purchase more American-made weapons under the FMS program.
📉 Even before the Iran war, the U.S. had already drawn down significant weapons stockpiles to support Ukraine against Russia and Israel’s operations in Gaza, further straining supplies.
💣 The delayed weaponry includes various types of ammunition that can be used for both offensive and defensive purposes, highlighting the broad impact on the U.S. military’s inventory.
🚢 Is the blockade announced by the US effective?
🛢️ Iran has exported approximately 9 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf of Oman since the onset of the U.S. blockade, with an additional 2 million barrels departing three days ago, according to data from TankerTrackers.
📉 Risks in US Bonds?
💵 Concerns have rise about the stability of the U.S. Treasury market and his call for policymakers to prepare an emergency response plan to mitigate the risks of a potential crisis in this critical financial sector.
📊 According to Bloomberg, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is calling on U.S. authorities to prepare a backup plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries, which he warns would have “vicious” effects.
⚠️ Paulson suggests that a breakdown in the Treasury market would pose a different challenge than the financial crisis two decades ago, as the government would not have the same fiscal firepower to “clean up the mess.”
📈 He warns that if the U.S. is trying to issue Treasuries and the Federal Reserve is the only buyer, with Treasury prices falling and interest rates rising, “that’s a dangerous thing.”
🛡️ Paulson is urging the U.S. government to have a contingency plan ready to deploy in order to prevent a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries, which he sees as a significant risk that could have severe economic consequences.
🇨🇦 Canada and the US continue to negotiate trade tensions.
🤝 Canada wants any resolutions on the listed irritants, as well as relief from sector-specific tariffs, bundled into one overarching deal rather than handled piecemeal.
📅 The USMCA/CUSMA will be reviewed in July 2026. Canada is leveraging the upcoming USMCA review deadline to extract broader tariff relief while protecting core domestic policies.
🗣️ Canadian Minister Dominic LeBlanc told a parliamentary committee that Canada is “ready and willing” to resolve the trade issues raised by U.S. Ambassador Jamieson Greer, but any progress must come as part of a “larger agreement” that would ease pressure on tariff-affected sectors of Canada’s economy.
📜 LeBlanc explicitly framed Canada’s position as preferring “a comprehensive agreement, rather than through ‘one-off’ deals” to address the irritants outlined by Greer, such as Canada’s supply-managed dairy system and regulations affecting major U.S. technology firms.
🔄 The comments come amid ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions that began with Trump-imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, which Canada initially retaliated against but later dropped many countermeasures in hopes of progress.
🏢 Corporate World: A stock gains of 800%, AI fever.
📈 A speculative behavior and hype-driven dynamics can emerge in the retail trading landscape, often with unsustainable results.
👟 Retail traders quickly piled into Allbirds after the troubled shoemaker announced a shocking pivot into artificial intelligence, sending the stock up over 800% at one point.
🌱 Allbirds is a sustainable footwear company based in the United States that specializes in manufacturing eco-friendly shoes for men, women, and children, founded in 2016.
💰 Net purchases of Allbirds stock hit a record $5.2 million in a single day, surpassing even the demand seen during the company’s 2021 IPO.
📉 The enthusiasm for Allbirds’ AI pivot proved fleeting, as the stock plummeted 36% on Thursday, representing a swift reversal from the previous day’s surge. According to CNBC, this pattern of retail investors quickly embracing companies that pivot to emerging technologies like AI, only to see the gains evaporate, has precedents in the market, such as the meme stock craze during the pandemic and crypto-related moves last year.
🤖 The use of AI by the government:
🏛️ The U.S. government is preparing to make a version of Anthropic’s powerful AI model, Mythos, available to major federal agencies amid concerns it could increase cybersecurity risks.
🔐 The White House Office of Management and Budget is setting up protections to allow agencies like the Departments of Defense, Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security, and others to begin using Mythos, with more details to come in the coming weeks.
⚡ Anthropic has limited the release of Mythos due to concerns that hackers could weaponize its capabilities to steal data or sabotage victim networks. The company has briefed senior U.S. government officials on Mythos’ capabilities.
🛡️ There are concerns within the government that equipping individual hackers with Mythos or similar AI tools would be a transformative threat, equivalent to turning a conventional soldier into a special forces operator.
✝️ Trump vs The Pope.
🗣️ President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the Pope, insisting that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” and arguing that if Tehran obtained one, countries including Italy — “where he’s stationed,” Trump said — would face serious danger, adding that “the Pope has to understand.”
🙏 In remarks delivered the same day, Pope Leo did not mention Trump directly but emphasized the moral imperative of peace, citing the Gospel: “Blessed are the peacemakers,” while warning against those who manipulate religion “for their own military, economic, or political gain,” and who drag what is sacred “into darkness and filth.”
📱 Trump has previously posted on Truth Social calling the pope “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy,” and falsely claimed the pontiff believes “it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon.”
🌍 Trump has repeatedly attacked Pope Leo XIV (the first American pope) for criticizing the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and for calling for de-escalation and ceasefires. Pope Leo has consistently framed the war (and similar conflicts) as immoral, especially when religion is invoked to justify military action. His African trip (Cameroon stop on April 16) became the platform for these remarks.
Market View.
🚀 US futures are trading at record highs. E‑mini S&P 500 futures are currently at 7,080, while Nasdaq 100 futures surpassed 26,560 in recent hours and are now trading at 26,455.
🛢️ Oil prices briefly fell below $95 per barrel for spot Brent on Wednesday, but have since recovered slightly and are currently trading at $98.65.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) dropped below 98 during yesterday’s session but has rebounded to 98.25. This allowed EUR/USD to rise momentarily above 1.1820, before pulling back to around 1.1775.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures continue to advance, though at a much slower and more cautious pace than US markets, currently trading at 24,295. Meanwhile, Euro Stoxx 50 futures have slipped below 5,900 and are trading near 5,865.
🥇 As war risk continues to fade and the dollar weakens, gold futures are advancing gradually but steadily, currently trading above $4,800 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin appears to be stabilising at higher levels, leaving behind the $72,000 range seen in recent sessions and now trading above $75,000.
