Market Report.
👥 The employment review report up to March 2025 shows almost a million jobs miscounted. This, which would initially seem like bad news, has driven Wall Street to new highs. As we announced, the bad news would bring stock market rises, as it signifies a guarantee of stimulus from the Federal Reserve to the markets. The worse the situation, the better for the stock markets.
📉 The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Tuesday showed a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the 12-month period prior to March 2025, which is on the high end of Wall Street expectations. This is the largest annual revision on record going back to 2002, with the revisions indicating average monthly job growth was 76,000 less than initially reported.
⚠️ The revisions suggest the employment picture in the U.S. was weakening even before President Trump began imposing tariffs, adding to concerns about the health of the economy. The White House has accused the BLS of being “broken” and called for new leadership to “restore trust and confidence” in the agency’s data, which is relied upon by financial markets, businesses, and policymakers.
📊 This substantial revision is likely to get the attention of the Federal Open Market Committee when it meets next week, and could justify an aggressive half-percentage point rate cut, according to some economists.
⚖️ The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of lower court rulings that many of President Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs are illegal. The Trump administration had warned that the Treasury Department could be forced to refund between $750 billion and $1 trillion in collected tariffs if the Supreme Court waited until next June to issue a decision.
📜 Lower courts ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing these tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, saying a president cannot unilaterally impose such wide-ranging tariffs without expiration dates. The Supreme Court has agreed to expedite the appeal, scheduling oral arguments for the first week of November, suggesting it will issue a final decision quickly.
🇨🇳 China’s producer price index (PPI) declined 2.9% year-on-year in August, narrowing from a 3.6% drop the previous month, suggesting Beijing’s efforts to rein in excessive competition and price cuts in key industrial sectors are starting to have an effect.
📉 However, producer prices is still some way off, as painful capacity restrictions are yet to be fully implemented by businesses and the global economic slowdown persists. The easing in factory-gate deflation comes after authorities recently stepped up calls for key sectors, like the auto industry, to scale back cut-throat competition that has hurt manufacturers’ profits.
🍽️ China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% year-on-year in August, the fastest pace of decline in six months, reflecting volatile food prices.
🌍 Europe is facing a growing set of challenges that it is struggling to address, according to political and business leaders at the Ambrosetti Forum: Europe is seen as “a bit like the rabbit in the headlight”, struggling to respond to the breakdown of the long-standing global rules-based system. It is not well equipped to manage the multilateral threats and opportunities it now faces, as the world order shifts to a “pentarchy” of major powers.
📉 One of the main issues is Europe’s lack of competitiveness compared to the U.S. and Asia, with slow growth, regulatory burdens, higher energy costs, and a fragmented single market hindering innovation and productivity.
🇶🇦 Qatar, which in May pledged $1.2 trillion in investment to Donald Trump and gifted him a $400 million Boeing 747‑8 for use as Air Force One, was struck yesterday by Israeli air strikes on its capital Doha; Israeli state media KANN says the operation used American intelligence, Hebrew outlets report the strikes targeted Hamas leaders meeting in Qatar to discuss the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal, and Hamas sources confirmed this to Al‑Jazeera — Trump acknowledged that Israel unilaterally attacked a U.S. ally, said he had ordered a warning to be sent to Qatar but it arrived too late to prevent the assault.
🗣️ U.S. President Donald Trump said the decision for Israel to strike Qatar was made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and not by Trump himself. Trump added that a unilateral attack on Qatar does not serve American or Israeli interests.
📞 Trump claimed he directed a U.S. envoy to warn Qatar about the impending attack, but Qatar contradicted this, saying a U.S. official only called after the blasts were already heard in Doha.
☎️ After the strike, Trump spoke to both Netanyahu and the Qatari emir, assuring the emir that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil.” Trump later told reporters he was “not thrilled” about the Israeli strike in Qatar.
✈️ Poland shot down multiple Russian drones that crossed into its airspace during Russia’s largest airstrike on Ukraine since the war began, marking the first time a NATO member has directly engaged Russian assets within its territory; Polish military reported that “airspace was repeatedly violated by drone‑type objects during the offensive,” and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Jim Townsend warned that “one drone could be a mistake, but multiple drones is not,” calling the incident “likely a test that NATO must address.”
📚 According with the WSJ, in the Epstein birthday letter book’s table of contents, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton appear under the “Friends” section alongside about 20 other associates, while other contributors are grouped into categories like “Science,” “Brooklyn,” and “Family,” mixing many non‑famous letter writers with some notable figures.
📈 Market View.
📊 The Mini S&P 500 futures have reached their all-time highs, currently trading at 6,540 points. The Nasdaq 100 futures are also making strong gains and are approaching the historical highs achieved in August, currently trading at 23,936 points.
💵 Surprisingly, the dollar has strengthened again despite the poor employment review report. The DXY index has re-entered the range above 97.50 points, currently trading at 97.78 points. This has caused a significant setback for the EUR/USD pair, which was advancing bullishly, pushing it back to the 1.17 area.
📉 US bond yields have also fallen, reflecting an increase in demand for them.
🇩🇪 In Europe, the DAX 40 futures are attempting for the third time to surpass the 23,850-point level, currently trading at 23,858 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are making bullish moves towards the 5,400-point region.
🛢️ There has been a slight uptick in crude oil, with Brent crude surpassing $67 per barrel, perhaps stimulated by yesterday’s attacks by Israel on Qatar.
💰 Gold futures achieved a new all-time high on Tuesday, reaching and exceeding $3,700 per ounce before retracing to the current $3,680.
💻 Bitcoin retraced during Tuesday’s session from $113,280 to the current $111,875.
