Market Report.
🇺🇸 US President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire last night, just hours before his self-imposed 8 p.m.
🕊️ The ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran, facilitated by Pakistan’s mediation, has provided a temporary reprieve from the escalating conflict and its severe economic consequences. However, underlying tensions and the damage to critical energy infrastructure remain.
📌 Core Commitments: US: Suspends all bombing, strikes, and attacks on Iran. Iran: Ceases defensive operations and allows shipping through the Strait. Israel: Has agreed to the terms and will suspend its bombing campaign against Iran (White House confirmation).
🏆 Both sides have claimed victory: Trump says US military objectives were “met and exceeded”; Iran frames the outcome favorably.
⚠️ On Tuesday, Trump had escalated threats, warning Iran’s “whole civilization” would “die” if it did not meet his demands. Iran had proposed a 10-point plan that Trump said provided a “workable basis” for negotiations. Pakistan had sought a 2-week pause in the conflict and played a mediating role.
⚖️ The U.S. president stated that he was not concerned about accusations of potential war crimes as he pledged to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure — remarks that critics argue could contravene international law. The U.S. military may face an ethical dilemma in carrying out such orders from the President. Maybe this is precisely what is behind the oustings that we saw last week.
🤝 Trump called Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif “a highly respected man” and said the talks were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully.”
❓ Will Israel respect the ceasefire agreed between Iran and the US? Israel sent a message right away “The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon.” This directly contradicts Pakistani mediators’ claims that the deal covered the entire region, including Hezbollah. Netanyahu explicitly noted that Israel-Lebanon exchanges of fire continue because Lebanon is excluded.
💥 Even after the announcement, a senior Israeli security official told The Times of Israel that the Israeli Air Force continues to carry out strikes in Iran, while Iran has fired multiple salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel.
🔥 Israel has already struck southern Lebanon after the ceasefire announcement, targeting Hezbollah-linked sites and killing civilians. Continued Israeli operations in Lebanon, framed as unrelated to the Iran deal, could provoke Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks, giving Israel a pretext to resume direct strikes on Iran.
📈 Market Reactions:
🚀 Markets rallied after the ceasefire announcement, as oil prices plunged over 14% to below $100 per barrel. However, missile strikes from Iran on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail complex had sparked a fire earlier on Tuesday. The oil disruptions have continued to impact the global economy, with U.S. jet fuel prices nearly doubling since the start of the war.
🌍 The IMF is poised to downgrade its global growth forecasts due to the war’s impact.
❓ Does Israel support and cease fire?
🎯 Israel’s primary interest is the permanent elimination of Iran’s capability to threaten it directly or indirectly. This includes: Dismantling or severely degrading Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpiles, Crippling its ballistic missile program and weakening the “axis of resistance” (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and other proxies).
⏳ A short ceasefire is seen as risky because it could allow Iran to regroup, rebuild, and claim victory—especially since Iranian officials have framed the deal as a win and rejected anything short of a full end to hostilities on their terms.
📅 This stance is consistent with Israel’s behavior in the fragile June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” ceasefire, which collapsed almost immediately amid mutual accusations of violations. Netanyahu then hailed it publicly as a “historic victory” but privately prepared enforcement measures and warned that any Iranian reconstitution of nuclear or missile programs would trigger renewed Israeli action.
⚔️ Israel’s opposition to the ceasefire is not abstract – it is operational. The country has accepted the pause under U.S. pressure but is actively working to limit its scope and preserve its freedom to strike. This maximalist approach risks perpetuating a cycle of fragile truces and escalations, with a high potential for wider regional war. The next interruption appears imminent, most likely via Lebanon or a direct tit-for-tat strike.
🇺🇸 Trump and the political cost of war within the US.
🗳️ Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has escalated her rift with President Trump by calling for the 25th Amendment to be invoked against him. Greene criticized Trump’s threats to “wipe out Iran’s whole civilization”, saying “we cannot kill an entire civilization” and calling it “evil and madness.”
🔄 Greene’s Shift on Trump’s Foreign Policy: Since leaving Congress, Greene has increasingly focused her criticism on Trump’s military action against Iran, saying it creates a “perverted, deranged version” of MAGA. She has argued Trump’s actions are a “betrayal” of what voters supported, and that his “number one focus should have been domestic policy.”
🗣️ Trump’s Attacks on Greene: Trump has celebrated Greene’s departure from Congress as “great news for the country” and referred to her as “Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown”, saying she is “not AMERICA FIRST or MAGA.”
🤝 Greene’s call was notable precisely because it aligned her with the left — something unthinkable even six months ago. Distintos congresistas apoyaron la postura de Greene.
🏛️ Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) called Trump “an unhinged lunatic” and demanded his removal. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) — who had previously introduced impeachment articles — said: “Trump threatened to kill 100 million people. It’s clear he is unfit to be president; the 25th Amendment must be invoked. Rubio and the others need to stop being cowards — Congress must do everything possible to stop Trump and this war”
🐉 What if China was also getting an indirect benefit from the war in the Middle East?
📊 The spike in energy costs following the attacks on Iran may help fend off the specter of deflation in China. The jump in consumer prices could give the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) more comfort in holding off on further interest rate cuts. As the world’s biggest buyer of foreign oil and gas, China is particularly exposed to higher prices from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
📈 Estimates for consumer inflation this year have been upgraded to 0.7% from 0.1%, and producer prices are expected to edge up 0.3% rather than declining 0.7%.
Market View.
📈 Markets are reacting sharply to the ceasefire agreement announced last night.
🚀 S&P 500 futures have surged, breaking above the 6,800 level, and are now beginning to stabilise.
💻 Nasdaq 100 futures have climbed past 25,150 and are also pausing after the strong advance.
🛢️ Oil prices have collapsed, with spot Brent crude falling more than 15% from Tuesday’s highs, currently trading at $94.35 per barrel.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) has also weakened significantly, down nearly 1.5% from Tuesday’s levels, and is now trading around 98.85. This has boosted currency pairs such as EUR/USD, which surged above 1.1700 before easing slightly to around 1.1685.
🇪🇺 In Europe, markets have opened in a highly euphoric mood.
📈 DAX 40 futures jumped above 24,400 before pulling back modestly to 24,320.
📊 Euro Stoxx 50 futures are trading above 5,850. Both contracts are posting gains of more than 5% compared to yesterday’s close.
🥇 Gold futures have also resumed their upward momentum, approaching $4,900 per ounce, supported by the weaker dollar.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin climbed towards $73,000 in recent hours but has since retreated to approximately $71,750.
