Market Report.
🇺🇸 President Trump posted on Truth Social claiming the United States is in a “very strong position” regarding Iran, suggesting the U.S. has significant leverage in ongoing negotiations or conflict with Iran.
⚔️ Trump compared the Iran War to World War I and World War II, characterizing the military campaign as “perfectly executed” and highlighting its relatively short duration of approximately six weeks compared to those historical conflicts.
📣 Trump directly addressed and denied claims that he is under pressure to reach a deal with Iran, stating emphatically “THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever” in his Truth Social post. The post suggests Trump is attempting to project confidence and strength in the U.S. negotiating position
🗳️ But Trump faces domestic political pressure to end the war, with polls showing most Americans disapprove of the conflict, while he campaigns on keeping the U.S. out of foreign entanglements and lowering consumer prices strained by the conflict.
⏳ President Trump stated he is “highly unlikely” to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran, which expires Wednesday evening Washington time, increasing pressure on negotiators to conclude a deal before the deadline passes and military operations potentially resume.
💣 Trump threatened Iran with overwhelming military force, stating “lots of bombs will start going off” if no deal is reached, and claiming the blockade is “absolutely destroying Iran” economically and strategically.
☢️ The core dispute centers on Iran’s nuclear program, with Trump demanding Iran forswear nuclear ambitions and hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, while Tehran insists its program is for peaceful purposes and refuses to surrender its uranium.
🎭 Trump using strategic ambiguity about ceasefire extension and military threats, while Iran questions U.S. trustworthiness given contradictory American signals throughout negotiations.
🕊️ The good news is that Iran is “positively reviewing” participation in peace talks scheduled for Pakistan, representing a significant shift from earlier statements ruling out attendance, though no final decision has been made as the two-week ceasefire approaches expiration on Wednesday evening.
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir informed Trump that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is a critical obstacle to talks, and Trump reportedly promised to consider ending it, signaling potential flexibility on this key leverage point.
🛫 Vice President JD Vance remained in the United States on Monday despite earlier reports suggesting his departure, adding uncertainty about the timing and readiness of the U.S. negotiating delegation to travel to Pakistan for talks.
🛡️ Pakistan deployed nearly 20,000 security personnel across Islamabad to prepare for talks that may not occur, demonstrating significant logistical commitment despite diplomatic uncertainty surrounding Iranian and American participation.
📑 Trump predicted a quick nuclear agreement with Iran, claiming it will be better than the 2015 Obama-era deal he withdrew from in 2018, though it remains unclear what comprehensive agreement could materialize in just days of negotiations.
🌍 Diplomats report Gulf officials have urged Washington against full sanctions relief on Iran, advocating phased approaches to test Tehran’s behavior while addressing core threats including missiles capable of hitting Gulf capitals and Iran’s armed proxy networks operating as state extensions.
🏜️ Trump’s handling of this conflict is causing discontent in the Gulf monarchies.
😒 Gulf Arab sentiment toward Washington ranges from quiet resentment to growing frustration over unilateral U.S. decision-making that excludes regional allies from negotiations despite their exposure to economic damage, defense costs, and security threats they cannot control but must absorb.
🚀 Gulf Arab states express alarm that negotiations increasingly prioritize Hormuz because of its global economic impact while marginalizing their own security concerns, including Iranian missiles, drones, and proxy attacks that have repeatedly targeted the region’s infrastructure and economies.
🇷🇺 Russian official Dmitry Medvedev characterized Hormuz as Iran’s “nuclear weapon,” suggesting the Strait represents Tehran’s most effective deterrence tool and leverage mechanism in diplomatic negotiations with Washington, breaking long-standing taboos around its potential disruption.
⚠️ Gulf officials warn that managing rather than dismantling Iran’s Hormuz leverage risks entrenching sustainable conflict at manageable levels, stabilizing tensions in ways that suit Washington and Tehran while leaving Gulf states living under persistent missile and proxy threats.
🕵️ Insider Trading in the White House?
📺 The BBC reports that it has identified a consistent pattern of sharp financial market spikes occurring minutes before President Donald Trump makes major market‑moving announcements. The findings have fueled scrutiny, with allegations that individuals close to the president may have profited significantly from the timing of those moves.
💰 Reimbursement of Trump’s tariff.
🏬 U.S. importers including Walmart, Target, and Nike are eligible for over $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court decision ruling Trump’s emergency tariffs illegal, with the CBP launching a claims-filing portal on Monday to process refund requests.
📊 Walmart is projected to receive $10.2 billion in refunds, Target $2.2 billion, and Nike $1 billion, with additional major retailers like Home Depot, Kohl’s, Gap, and Macy’s also expecting substantial refunds ranging from $320 million to $550 million based on Citi analysis.
⚖️ Trade lawyers and Wall Street analysts express skepticism about quick refund processing, warning of bureaucratic hurdles, legal vulnerabilities, and the possibility of last-minute appeals by the Trump administration despite the Supreme Court’s clear ruling that the tariffs were unlawful.
🗂️ The CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system will allow importers to submit tariff refund declarations, with claims undergoing multiple validations before receiving consolidated refund amounts, though importers anticipate the government will make the process as difficult as possible.
🛒 Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey stated the refund process would be “very complex” and “probably not something that’s going to happen very quickly,” indicating major retailers expect significant delays despite the portal launch and the Supreme Court’s definitive ruling against the tariffs.
📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the Trump administration is exploring Section 301 tariffs as an alternative legal channel to restore tariff levels, potentially reimposing tariffs by early July despite the Supreme Court setback, signaling continued trade policy uncertainty for importers.
🏦 Central banks remain nervous about the current situation.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde identified two main sources of “double uncertainty” hampering monetary-policy decisions: the unknown duration of the Iran war disruption and the potential spillover of energy prices into broader inflation across the eurozone economy.
📉 Lagarde emphasized the ECB needs more data before drawing firm policy conclusions, citing the “stop-start nature of the conflict” with repeated cycles of war, ceasefire, peace talks, and naval blockades making it exceptionally difficult to gauge consequences and duration accurately.
📅 Lagarde’s comments, made less than two weeks before the April 30 ECB policy meeting, are likely to reinforce market expectations that even if rate hikes eventually become necessary, April is too early for such action given the persistent economic uncertainty.
📊 Euro-area inflation is expected to accelerate toward 3% this month, while business surveys for April are likely showing further deterioration in economic activity, increasing risks of stagflationary scenarios combining high inflation with weak growth.
⛽ The ECB’s current assessment indicates energy prices have not yet risen far enough to push the eurozone into the bank’s adverse economic scenario, with oil prices above baseline assumptions but natural gas prices remaining below base case expectations due to Asian buyers switching to coal.
🧭 Despite acknowledging “there is no easy path back to where we were before this conflict erupted,” Lagarde stated the ECB remains ready to act as the situation demands when sufficient information becomes available to guide policy decisions.
📈 Markets appear to be betting that the Middle East disruption will be short-lived, as evidenced by natural gas prices remaining below baseline assumptions and limited evidence of broader supply-chain disruptions affecting the eurozone economy.
🏛️ What is the latest news from the Fed?
🧑⚖️ Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, will testify before the Senate Banking Committee and pledge commitment to monetary policy independence while acknowledging limits to Fed autonomy in non-monetary matters like banking regulation and fiscal policy oversight.
⚔️ Warsh faces an unprecedented political challenge balancing Trump’s demands for lower interest rates against investor concerns about Fed independence, amid the president’s public criticism of Chair Powell, attempts to fire Fed governors, and DOJ investigations into the central bank.
🚫 Senator Thom Tillis, a key Republican voter, has vowed to block any Fed appointment until the DOJ’s probe into Powell ends, effectively preventing Warsh’s confirmation and raising doubts about whether he’ll assume office before Powell’s term expires on May 15, 2026.
📉 Warsh has previously advocated for keeping rates high to combat inflation but appeared to shift toward supporting rate cuts in 2025 after Trump returned to office, providing Democrats ammunition to argue he may become Trump’s puppet as Fed chair.
🔄 Warsh plans to pursue “regime change” at the Fed, targeting economic models, communication strategies, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet, though he’s offered minimal detail on implementation and risks disrupting money market liquidity if executed too aggressively.
🇭🇺 Hungary’s Prime Minister Péter Magyar stated that his government will remain a member of the International Criminal Court and would detain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he were to enter Hungarian territory under an active ICC warrant. Magyar said he had made Hungary’s position clear to Netanyahu, emphasizing that as long as the country remains bound by the court’s statutes, it is obligated to act on any valid arrest warrant issued by the ICC.
Market View.
📈 Equity markets continue to price in an optimistic outcome to negotiations between Iran and the United States.
🚀 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are trading close to record highs, currently at 7,165.
💻 Nasdaq 100 futures are in a similar position, trading around 26,855.
🛢️ Spot Brent crude remains range‑bound around the $95 per barrel level, moving sideways since the start of the week.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) is also trading within a narrow range between 98.00 and 98.40, awaiting geopolitical clarity. EUR/USD moved higher during yesterday’s session but failed to break above 1.1800, pulling back to approximately 1.1775.
🇪🇺 In Europe, indices continue to show less enthusiasm than their US counterparts.
📉 DAX 40 futures are advancing cautiously, trading near 24,675, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are in a similar situation at around 5,952.
🥇 Gold futures remain firm within a sideways range, holding above $4,800 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin is holding steady above the $76,000 level.
