Market Report.
📱 Trump threatened Iran via Truth Social post Wednesday morning with AI-generated image depicting himself holding gun with explosions and “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” text, stating Iran “can’t get their act together” and “better get smart soon” regarding non-nuclear deal negotiations.
🗣️ President Donald Trump said that ending the conflict would be straightforward if Iran simply chose to concede, stating that all Tehran has to do is “cry uncle… just say ‘we give up.’”
🚫 “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump told Axios on Wednesday. “They are choking like a stuffed pig, and it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
📰 When a Perodist asks Trump which war would end first, the Ukraine war or the Iran war, President Donald Trump replied that Ukraine has been “militarily defeated,” adding, “You wouldn’t know that by reading the fake news.”
📺 Trump told Fox News “we have all the cards,” demanding Iran initiate contact stating “they can come to us, or they can call us,” reversing traditional diplomatic protocol and positioning U.S. as refusing to travel for negotiations, indicating confidence in military and economic leverage.
🚀 But if Iran has been defeated, and its capabilities annihilated, why CENTCOM has requested deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East, justifying the move by stating Iran has moved its ballistic missile launchers beyond the range of the existing Precision Strike Missile (300-mile range).
🛢️ This would prove that Iran still holds a powerful counter-threat: any resumption of strikes on Iranian soil would trigger attacks on critical energy infrastructure in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
🌍 The deployment would carry a wider geopolitical signal beyond the Iran conflict — demonstrating to Russia and China that the US can finally match a hypersonic capability both adversaries have long mastered and deployed. However, it also highlights the US has been burning through weapons designed for near-peer warfare against a regional power.
✈️ The US claims local air superiority in parts of Iran, but dozens of MQ-9 drones and several crewed fighters have been shot down — confirming significant portions of Iranian airspace remain dangerous.
📦 WE already know that US and Israel burned through critical weapons stockpiles without decisive results. Large portions of precision-guided munitions and missile defence interceptors were depleted, and replenishment was only achieved by drawing down stocks earmarked for Europe and the Pacific — weakening US readiness across other theatres, particularly vis-à-vis China and Russia.
🚢 It’s interesting that, after weeks of Trump demanding that Iran “open the bloody Strait of Hormuz” immediately, now that Iran has proposed opening it, Trump interprets this as a sign of weakness and has therefore decided to keep it closed.
🤔 This could indicate two things: either the US never intended to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, as whilst it remains closed, the US is the world’s sole reliable energy supplier (Russia is under sanctions and Saudi Arabia is blocked), or Trump is unable to find a solution, does not know what to do, and believes that simply doing the opposite of whatever Iran suggests will be interpreted as a gesture of leadership; after all, the US’s international image has been called into question, to say the least, in this war, or in the words of German Chancellor Merz, ‘Trump has been humiliated in Iran’.
📜 Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz if U.S. lifts blockade on Iranian ports and war ends, with proposal postponing nuclear ambitions negotiations to later date, representing Iranian attempt separating immediate economic relief from long-term nuclear security discussions. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal reportedly unhappy with framework, with White House expected returning counteroffer, though no concrete alternative proposal publicly detailed.
📈 West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.82% to $102.75 after Trump’s post, with benchmark Brent futures up 3% settling $114.62, indicating oil markets reacting negatively to escalatory rhetoric and reduced diplomatic prospects, reflecting investor concerns about prolonged conflict.
🏛️ Yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified before the House Armed Services Committee in his first congressional appearance since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began.
🧾 According with AP news, Rather than engaging substantively with questions on war costs ($25 billion so far, per Pentagon estimates), civilian casualties (including the reported strike on an Iranian elementary school), munitions depletion, troop losses from Iranian drone strikes, economic ripple effects (surging gas and food prices), or the lack of explicit congressional authorization, Hegseth repeatedly pivoted to attack domestic critics—particularly Democrats—as the “biggest adversary.” He accused Rep. John Garamendi of “handing propaganda to our enemies”.
❓ Rhetorical question on nuclear costs, “What is the cost of an Iranian nuclear bomb? used by Hegseth, was viewed it as a dodge avoiding concrete answers on current civilian impacts, shifting war rationales, or an exit strategy.
🏦 The future of the Fed.
📊 The FOMC held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, as universally expected, but the meeting was notable for an unusually divided committee, voted 8-4 to hold rates, the most divided vote since October 1992. Governor Miran dissented for a cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented against the easing bias in the statement, reflecting a Fed being pulled in opposite directions simultaneously.
💹 Inflation language was upgraded from “somewhat elevated” to simply “elevated”, with the statement now explicitly linking price pressures to rising global energy costs — a direct acknowledgement of the Iran war’s inflationary impact. CPI jumped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, and the FOMC is clearly taking note.
🎙️ Powell confirmed this was his last press conference as Chair but announced he will stay on as a Fed Governor — a decision driven entirely by what he called “legal attacks on the Fed” by the Trump administration. He stated he had originally planned to retire, but will remain until the situation has calmed and the DoJ investigation is “well and truly over with finality and transparency.”
⚖️ Trump’s legal pressure strategy has backfired spectacularly. As I have mentioned on previous occasions, Trump’s public insults against Powell seem to have made this a personal cause. Jerome Powell has stated that he plans to step down from the Fed: ‘I am staying on, quite literally, because of the measures that have been taken. I had been planning to retire for some time. I have had no choice but to stay on until the events of the last three months have run their course.’
🏢 Corporate Events:
💻 Four major U.S. tech companies—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—reported earnings after market close Wednesday. All four companies demonstrated willingness prioritizing massive capital expenditures for AI infrastructure over near-term profitability, reflecting industry consensus that artificial intelligence represents transformative technology requiring substantial upfront investment to maintain competitive positioning and market share.
📉 Amazon and Meta’s capital spending exceeding analyst expectations suggests market systematically underestimating infrastructure costs required for competitive AI development, indicating potential for continued spending surprises as companies accelerate artificial intelligence capability development.
📊 Meta raised its full-year capex outlook to $125–$145 billion, far above analyst estimates, doubling down on AI infrastructure investment — but shares fell 4.4% after hours, signalling investor unease about the scale and pace of spending.
📈 Alphabet beat Q1 expectations, reporting $94.7 billion in revenue ex-TAC versus the $91.6 billion consensus, with Google’s parent outperforming on both revenue and profit as AI investments continue to deliver commercial results.
☁️ Amazon’s cloud unit (AWS) posted its fastest quarterly growth in over three years, driven by new data centre capacity and rising demand from Anthropic and OpenAI partnerships — confirming AWS as a key infrastructure backbone for the AI boom.
💰 Amazon’s Q1 capex surged to $44.2 billion, beating estimates and signalling that companies broadly are underestimating the capital requirements needed to stay competitive in AI infrastructure.
🚀 Microsoft Azure grew 39% in Q3 (currency-adjusted), narrowly beating the 38% analyst estimate, demonstrating that heavy prior investment in cloud and AI capacity is translating into strong, sustained enterprise demand.
Market View.
🛢️ The oil market has returned to the upper end of its range, with spot Brent crude reaching levels close to $115 per barrel in recent hours.
📉 However, US futures have edged lower. S&P 500 futures are currently trading at 7,150, while Nasdaq 100 futures stand at 27,275.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) has also shown strength, rising above the 99 level in recent hours before easing slightly. EUR/USD has fallen below 1.1700, currently trading around 1.1670.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures have broken below the support levels of the past two weeks, trading near 23,800. Euro Stoxx 50 futures have also declined, losing support and trading around 5,710.
🥇 Gold futures fell towards the $4,530 per ounce area but have rebounded in recent hours, recovering to approximately $4,590.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin declined during yesterday’s session to around $74,915, before staging a modest recovery to approximately $75,760.
