Macro-News round-up:

#MarketNews

  • The UK unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%, below the European average of 6.5%. However, the average earnings index falls below expectations. Average Earnings Index +Bonus 7.2% vs. 7.7%.
  • In Germany, the ZEW Economic Situation Index comes out worse than expected, while the Economic Sentiment Index improves from the expected data.
  • The Dutch economy will exit its mild recession, with a projected growth rate of 0.7% in 2024, up from 0.2% in 2023. In part, thanks to an increase in public spending, and the cooling of the global economy is expected to coincide with moderate export growth. The strain in the Dutch labor market will not be wiped out quickly, with a moderate increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Inflation will fall below 2%, driven by lower food, transport, and energy prices, but core inflation will still be at an unusually high level of 3.4%.
  • On the US side, in a few hours we will know its updated CPI rate.
  • China: Deflationary risks persist – China’s consumer prices fell the fastest in three years in November while factory-gate deflation deepened, indicating rising deflationary pressures as weak domestic demand casts doubt over the economic recovery.

    The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.5% both from a year earlier and compared with October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday. The year-on-year CPI decline was the steepest since November 2020.

    A persistent supply glut, declining global energy costs, and the slowing of the winter travel boom are the three primary causes of the data, according to Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who warned that policymakers would find it concerning.

    “Downward pressure will continue to rise in 2024 as developers and local governments continue to deleverage and as global growth is expected to slow,” Xu predicted.

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