🌍 Macro-News round-up


Yesterday, the U.S. reported weaker than expected Retail Sales, but much better than January. On the other hand, PPI data came out higher than expected, which could push the PCE inflation data higher again, so be cautious, as this could move the Fed’s rate cut further away. Jobless claims also fell yesterday.

📈 Market response continues to discount a delay in the rate cut. The 2-year bond rallied sharply, and the DXY dollar index also rose.

Today, we will obtain data on the U.S. Trade Balance and U.S. Industrial Production.

🇪🇺 Europe: We will have another ECB official speech. France’s inflation rate decreased from 3.10% in January 2024 to 3% in February, with a consensus estimate of 2.9%.

🌐 Tensions between the world’s two largest economies: In response to the passage of the law “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,”, which prevents TikTok from operating in the U.S. under the current business structure, China has responded: Wang Wenbin, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “Such practice of resorting to hegemonic moves when one could not succeed in fair competition disrupts the normal operation of businesses, undermines the confidence of international investors in the investment environment, and sabotages the normal economic and trade order in the world. This will inevitably come back to backfire on the United States itself.” “U.S. has never found any evidence of TikTok posing a threat to U.S. national security, it has never stopped going after TikTok,”

🇯🇵 Japan: USDJPY has been rising sharply this week and is approaching 149. Suspicious given the impending rate move so widely announced by the BoJ. The move we expected should have caused the USDJPY to pull back, not go up. Does this mean that the market is discounting a change of plans?. According to people acquainted with the bank’s thinking, internal plans to eliminate the negative interest rates had been on since Kazuo Ueda became governor of the BOJ in April of last year and were largely completed by year’s end. The announcement of more robust than anticipated yearly salary settlements by Japan’s main labour union group would be a significant factor in terminating the negative rate policy.

🇨🇳 China: China’s new house prices fell 1.4% year over year, more than the 0.7% reduction in the previous month. This is the ninth consecutive month of declines, despite Beijing’s numerous assistance measures aimed at lessening the effects of a protracted property crisis and shaky economic recovery.

As mentioned in our previous reports, the target growth rate published by the Chinese authorities will be 5% this year. However, according to experts surveyed by Bloomberg, data expected on Monday is predicted to show year-over-year growth in retail sales and industrial production decreasing compared to December. Investment in property development is expected to decline as the industry is unable to provide a significant recovery.

🛢️ Commodities: The upward revision of oil demand for this year, which we published in our previous report this week, seems to have fueled the price of crude oil. WTI has reached $85 a barrel in the last few hours. However, It is approaching correction zones around 88$ per barrel.

🌐 Geopolitics: Especially interesting is Putin’s speculation about the deployment of European forces in Ukraine. He claims that Poland has ambitions to recover its former territories in western Ukraine, and that under this pretext, it would occupy part of the country. Putin assures that the rest of the sovereign countries of the world are watching with interest as Russia stands up to the US and Europe. He describes Western leaders as vampires and the West as exploiters for more than 500 years of the people of Arica, Latin America and Asia.

Yesterday, new declarations of Macro, president of France, were known to the media, where he assures that the negotiations with Putin have come to an end. In this regard, Putin assured during his interview that Macron’s words are an emotional response to Russia’s support for the expulsion of France from its colonial territories in Africa.

In any case, the situation in Ukraine is not improving, and the future of Europe looks increasingly gray.