Macro-News round-up:



    • The New York Federal Reserve’s recent data shows that short- and medium-term inflation expectations have softened in October. The dollar faces a potential correction, but interest rate repricing expectations remain steady.
    • The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is bearish for grains, affecting the market negatively. This could lead to new increases in food prices.
    • The industrial metals market is closely monitoring China’s economic recovery, as it has a significant impact on the demand for metals. Industrial metals such as copper have declined over the year.
    • Wage growth in the UK has slowed down, indicating a cooling jobs market. U.K. Average Earnings Index & Bonus outperformed expectations, reaching 7.9% on expectations of 7.4% but in the third consecutive down period since September. Meanwhile, the UK’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in October, below expectations of 4.3%.
    • Poland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.40% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter in the previous year, reversing the last two periods of negative growth.
    • The Netherlands’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.20% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, resulting in three consecutive months of economic contraction.
    • According to the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s cuts are set to keep the oil market in a significant deficit until the end of the year. China’s oil demand reached a record high of 17.1 million barrels per day in September.
    • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concern to her Chinese counterpart about Beijing’s heavy financial support for certain industries, which could pose a threat to other nations. Yellen mentioned that such support could result in oversupply in industries heavily invested in by China.
    • The Biden-Xi meeting may ease tensions between the two superpowers, attracting investors back to China. Equities and currency traders are closely monitoring the situation, given that China’s stocks are struggling due to the ongoing property crisis and a global fund exodus, and the yuan has fallen to a 16-year low against the dollar.