Macro-News round-up:


UK: UK retail sales fell to 1.9% versus 2.3% expected and down from 2.6% in the previous period.

Today, in a few hours, we will see a speech by the Bank of England’s president. Not forgetting that later this week we will get published the UK’s monthly growth rate as well as its manufacturing output and trade balance, it is a week of important macro data for the pound, which continues to tentatively gain ground against the dollar since November last year, repeatedly approaching the 1.28 GBPUSD zone.

Germany: Germany’s industrial production contracted -0.7% vs. the expected 0.2%. Some recovery from the previous period’s contraction of -0.3% was expected. Today’s German bond auction closed with a yield of 2.19% for the 10yr bond.

EU: Europe’s unemployment rate fell yesterday to 6.4% from 6.5%. A slight improvement.

US: On the one hand, the trade balance fell slightly yesterday, but this was mostly due to a reduction in imports. Exports also fell subtly from the previous period.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve released yesterday its Fed GDPNow forward-looking GDP indicator, indicating US gross domestic product movement of 2.2% for Q4, falling below the market’s expected 2.5%.

Canada: Macro data released yesterday shows a considerable contraction of its trade balance, 1.57 Billion USD, a contraction of almost 50% from the previous period. Additionally, building permits contracted by -3.9% compared to a positive 3% in the previous period.

South Korea: The unemployment rate rose more than expected to 3.3% in December (vs. 2.8% in November, 2.9% market estimate), partly due to higher labour participation (64.6% in December vs. 64.3% in November).

On the international scene, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday intended to meet with Israeli officials to prevent the Gaza war from turning into a regional catastrophe, while the Israeli army declared that its fight against Hamas will continue throughout the year.

On Monday, Israel assassinated a senior leader of Hamas partner Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in the latest sign that the conflict is escalating.

According to Reuters sources familiar with the situation, Israel is also carrying out an unprecedented wave of deadly attacks in Syria, targeting cargo trucks, infrastructure and individuals involved in Iran’s arms supply chain to regional proxies.

However, the price of crude oil and gold remain stable and fairly discounted since the start of the conflict, indicating an apparent calm in the commodity markets.