Macro-News round-up:


  • EE.UU: The 10-year Treasury bill rate is getting closer to 4%, as though a poor jobs report tomorrow was inevitable. However, there is also an underlying decline in inflation expectations. ADP private payrolls report weakness was the driving force. Productivity increased by 5.2% in the third quarter, which helped unit labour costs decline by 1.2% and allay Fed worries about inflation. A further drop in oil prices, which saw WTI drop below US$70/bbl, was another contributing factor.
  • France’s trade deficit narrowed to €8.6 billion in October of 2023, following a downwardly revised €8.87 billion in the previous month, and slightly above market forecasts of €8.5 billion.
  • Italy: Industrial production in Italy slipped by 0.2% mom in October 2023, following the upwardly revised 0.1% rise in September and coming slightly better than the forecasts of a 0.3% drop.
  • Germany: Industrial production in Germany fell 0.4% month-over-month in October 2023, easing from a marginally revised 1.3% drop in September but missing market expectations of a 0.2% rise. It was the fifth consecutive period of declining industrial output, as an increase in auto production (+0.7%) was not enough to offset fall in mechanical engineering (-6.3%).

    China: Exports from China unexpectedly grew by 0.5% year-on-year to USD 291.93 billion in November 2023, after a 6.4% fall in the previous month and beating market forecasts of a 1.1% drop. It was the first increase in exports since April, amid signs of improvement in global trade flows.
  • Commodities: The price of crude oil continues to plummet. Oil producers accused the IEA of manipulating the data. The investment world is divided.

    “Goehring & Rozencwajg Investment Firm writes: “When the realization dawns that oil and gas demand is not in free fall, investors will be forced to confront how little the industry has invested to offset the declines.” In 12 of the past 14 years, the IEA, according to the investment firm, has underestimated oil demand by an annual average of 820,000 barrels per day.