📰 Market Report.
🕊️ The ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding up. Just hours after both nations reached an agreement, Israel claimed that its longtime adversary had launched missiles into its territory—an accusation that Tehran refuted—and announced it was ready to “respond forcefully,” likely with additional missile strikes.
🤔 “I’m not pleased with them. I’m also not satisfied with Iran, but I’m particularly concerned if Israel decides to take action this morning,” Trump remarked to reporters while heading to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.
⚖️ His warnings appeared to have had an effect, resulting in a tenuous truce between the two countries.
🛡️ According to NBC News, an initial evaluation from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency revealed that American airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend did not significantly disrupt critical components, with reports suggesting that the strikes only delayed Iran’s capabilities by a month or two. Trump claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.”
🔥 However, it seems that political tensions between the US and Israel could be escalating in the wake of this conflict. Former congressman Matt Gaetz said in the US media that if the world was interested in secret nuclear programmes in the Middle East, Israel was the country that would not allow IAEA inspections. US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on social media that John F. Kennedy was ‘assassinated’ for opposing Israel’s nuclear programme in 1963. Republican Sam Parker publishes an infographic accusing Israel of killing President Kennedy and stealing US nuclear secrets to develop atomic weapons.
📢 In addition, yesterday journalists asked Trump about the breakdown of the ceasefire by Iran, and he responded that Israel also violated the ceasefire from the outset: ‘they came out an hour later and threw everything they had (Israel).’ He also assured journalists that Iran will not have nuclear weapons and that they will do great business together.
🌏 Trump also indicated that China could continue purchasing oil from Iran, possibly signaling a shift in the U.S. approach toward Tehran. Nevertheless, ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue to face threats due to ongoing GPS signal jamming.
💰 The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has injected CNY 300 billion into financial institutions through a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in China’s banking system. The operation, which used fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price bidding, aims to ensure stable interbank funding and support government bond issuance amid economic challenges.
📈 The S&P 500 has rebounded from its lows in April, coming within about 1% of its all-time high in a remarkably short period.
🛡️ NATO leaders convened to agree on increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, largely due to pressure from the United States. Europe might invest up to €14 trillion in defense and related infrastructure over the next decade, presenting a significant opportunity for private investment, according to Carlyle.
🇪🇺 The EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports should Trump implement a baseline tax on goods from the bloc. EU officials anticipate that the U.S. will maintain certain duties even after trade negotiations are finalized. “We will need to retaliate and rebalance in key sectors if the U.S. insists on an unbalanced deal,” EU industry chief Stephane Sejourne told Bloomberg.
🇫🇷 France: Negotiations over France’s contentious retirement reform ended in deadlock late Monday, raising the chances of government collapse if opposition parties unite in a no-confidence vote. The government also faces challenges over the budget, as it needs to present another round of spending cuts and tax increases by mid-July to get control of the country’s growing debt pile. This risk triggering censure ballots that could bring down the government if opposition parties from far-left to far-right unite, as they did in December.
🪙 The government needs to make €40 billion in savings in the 2026 budget to keep on track with plans to rein in the deficit, and this could become a flashpoint for the National Rally party.
🇩🇪 Meanwhile, in Germany, the other pillar supporting Europe, things do not seem to be going well either. Germany’s ruling coalition reached an agreement with the country’s state premiers on how to share the financial burden from a €46 billion ($53 billion) package of tax breaks intended to boost economic growth. The agreement is an important milestone for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is under pressure to act fast to revive growth in Europe’s largest economy after two years of contraction.
📤 The “Private Wealth Migration Report” by Henley & Partners reveals that more millionaires are leaving Germany than arriving, with an estimated 400 millionaires expected to exit by the end of the year, taking about 2 billion euros with them. The reasons for this exodus include negative economic growth, high taxes, and concerns about education and safety for families in Germany. For the first time since they began recording, more millionaires will leave Germany this year than millionaires will immigrate.
🌍 The UK is projected to lose 16,500 millionaires, while China will see an exodus of 7,800 millionaires. The report indicates a shift in wealth migration, which could impact Europe’s economic competitiveness as millionaires migrate.
📊 Market View:
📈 Markets are advancing, trusting that the ceasefire requested by Donald Trump will hold. Currently, Mini S&P 500 futures are rising above 6,145 points, approaching their historical highs. Nasdaq 100 futures, on the other hand, are trading at 22,425 points, near their all-time highs. Close attention is warranted for any event that could disrupt this momentum.
💵 The DXY dollar index is once again positioned at the 98-point support level, and the EUR/USD pair has surpassed 1.16. The good news is that yields on U.S. bonds continue to decline, with the 2-year bond falling below 3.80%.
📉 In Europe, the market is beginning to recover; DAX 40 futures are trading above 23,850 points, and the Euro Stoxx 50 has exceeded 5,300 points.
🛢️ The oil market is calming after the shocks of the past 48 hours, with Brent crude stabilising around $68 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures fell to nearly $3,300 per ounce but rebounded when the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was broken. At present, they seem to have stabilised close to $3,350 per ounce.
💻 Bitcoin has continued its upward trend and is once again facing resistance at $107,000, a level tested in recent weeks.
