Market Report.
🤝 U.S. and Iran may be engaged in talks to try and resolve the ongoing crisis, though Iran has disputed Trump’s characterization of the discussions.
📱 President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post about a five-day halt on energy strikes in Iran sent shockwaves through the markets. The wild swings across asset classes were only exacerbated by denials from Iranian state media that talks had even happened. Indicators that suggest a spike in trading took place ahead of the social media post are now only adding to the confusion.
🗣️ Trump later said his son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff participated in talks with a “top person” in Iran on Sunday evening, and that the parties could meet again soon. The U.S. president said he has ordered a 5-day pause in strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure to allow for further discussions, which he hopes could lead to a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities.”
🌊 Trump suggested the Strait of Hormuz could be “jointly controlled” by the U.S. and Iran as part of a potential deal, hinting at a “very serious form of regime change.”
🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that it has received indirect messages suggesting the United States is seeking talks to end the war, but denied that any negotiations have actually taken place.
📰 According to the official IRNA news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said:
💬 “Over the past few days, messages were received through some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war.”
❌ However, he added that there have been “no negotiations or talks with the United States during the past 24 days of the imposed war.”
🚀 Meanwhile, the Iran-to-Israel attacks have not ceased, with new missile strikes last night.
🇮🇱 Israeli press reports growing differences between the U.S. and Israel over the timing and objectives for ending the war with Iran. An Israeli official told Yediot Aharonot that the U.S. has set April 9 as a deadline to conclude the conflict. Israel is reportedly preparing for the possibility that the fighting could last into April, as expectations of a rapid regime collapse in Tehran appear increasingly unlikely.
🧠 But what if all of this were a strategy for a pause and regrouping forces around Iran?
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia has reportedly agreed to allow the U.S. military to use King Fahd Air Base in Taif for operations related to the conflict with Iran. This represents a shift from Saudi Arabia’s previous assurances that its territory would not be used to attack Iran.
🇦🇪 The UAE has also taken steps to align more closely with U.S. efforts against Iran, closing an Iranian-owned hospital and club, which removes a channel of support for Iran.
✈️ The use of King Fahd Air Base gives the U.S. a more secure hub for air operations and logistics, widening the U.S. basing network in the Gulf and reducing pressure on already targeted facilities.
📈 The news has impacted markets, with crude oil prices moving higher as traders price in a greater probability of a wider regional conflict and more persistent disruption to Middle Eastern supply routes.
🌐 According to the former British diplomat and intelligence officer Alastair Crooke, Iran is demanding that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries break from their current alignment with the “London-Wall Street axis” and the petrodollar system.
🗣️ Iran is telling the GCC states that if they want to continue doing business and have security in the region, they must learn to deal directly with Iran. Part of Iran’s requirements is that the GCC countries must get rid of all their data centers and other elements connected to the United States, including companies like Microsoft and Amazon.
🇨🇳 Iran is essentially telling the GCC that if they want greater security in the future, they should look to China rather than relying on the West.
🔥 Accident or sabotage?
🏭 A fire broke out following an explosion at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. The explosion at the 47,000-bpd 243-diesel hydrotreater unit rocked the region in east Texas on the Louisiana border, the sources said to Reuters, with the blast heard as far as 11 miles away.
🛢️ The facility has a capacity of 380,000 barrels per day and is considered one of the largest oil refineries in the United States. The cause of the incident is currently under investigation.
⚡ The US threatens the EU with energy access.
🇺🇸 The U.S. is leveraging Europe’s dependence on U.S. LNG supplies to pressure the EU to approve the existing $750 billion trade and energy agreement without changes, threatening to revoke Europe’s preferential access to these vital energy resources if the deal is not ratified as is.
⚠️ U.S. officials have now warned that Europe could lose its “favorable” access to U.S. LNG if the European Parliament amends or refuses to ratify the existing agreement without changes.
📑 The EU-US trade and energy framework, finalized in 2025, envisages EU purchases of around $750 billion of US energy (LNG, oil, and civil nuclear technologies) by 2028, embedding US fuels as a core replacement for Russian supply.
🤝 In return, the US agreed to cap tariffs on most EU exports at around 15%, while Europe committed to scaling up import and regasification capacity for US LNG.
📉 Significant deterioration in euro zone consumer confidence due to the economic fallout from the Iran war
📊 Euro zone consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since late 2023 this month, dropping to -16.3 from -12.3 in February. This was well below expectations of -14.4. The four-point drop in March is one of the largest falls on record, aside from the start of the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.
🏠 Household spending will decline and GDP will stagnate over the next two quarters due to the impact of the Iran war and surging energy prices.
🏛️ Despite the serious threat that U.S. and Israeli intervention has posed to Europe’s energy supply routes, and the fact that the ECB may raise interest rates in the coming months as a precaution against the inflation this could trigger, the political establishment continues to support the conflict.
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz bluntly told ZDF : “This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us. We are also victims of this mullah regime that has brought death and destruction to the world.”
🏢 In the corporate world:
📄 The risk factors highlighted in a document provide a glimpse into the challenges and vulnerabilities OpenAI faces as it prepares for a potential IPO, with its reliance on Microsoft and other key partners emerging as a significant concern.
💻 In a document resembling an IPO prospectus, OpenAI highlighted its reliance on Microsoft as a potential risk, stating that Microsoft supplies “a substantial portion of our financing and compute.”
💰 OpenAI included detailed risk factors in the document, which it shared with prospective investors as part of its recent $110 billion funding round.
⚖️ The company cited risks such as its significant capital expenditures, reliance on compute resources, ongoing litigation with Elon Musk’s xAI, and its unusual structure as a public benefit corporation.
⚠️ OpenAI warned that if Microsoft modifies or terminates its commercial partnership, or if the company fails to diversify its business partners, it could adversely affect its business and financial condition.
🌏 The document also highlighted geopolitical risks, such as the potential impact of a regional conflict affecting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a key OpenAI supplier.
Market View.
📈 Markets are attempting to recover, though confidence remains fragile following President Trump’s remarks yesterday regarding a possible ceasefire.
📊 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are rising towards 6,650, while Nasdaq 100 futures are moving up to around 24,480.
🛢️ Spot Brent crude has fallen more than 10% since Trump’s comments. After trading above $110 per barrel yesterday, it has declined to approximately $101.25.
💵 The US dollar has also weakened, slipping from above 100 on the DXY yesterday to around 99.30. This provided some relief to currency pairs such as EUR/USD, which climbed towards 1.1635 before easing back to around 1.1595.
💱 USD/JPY also retraced notably, falling from 159.60 to approximately 158.55.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures initially posted strong gains before paring them back to around 22,885.
📈 Euro Stoxx 50 futures managed to reclaim the 5,500 level, currently trading near 5,530.
🥇 Gold futures, which had dropped towards $4,100 per ounce, rebounded to $4,500 before stabilising around $4,410.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin has bounced again but is facing one of its most recent resistance levels near $71,000.
