📅 Market Report.
💼 Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that August 1st is the hard deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the United States. Lutnick said that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1”, but the new tariff rates will come into effect on that date.
🤝 Lutnick stated that he had just spoken with European trade negotiators and there was “plenty of room” for agreement between the two largest trading partners in the world.
🌍 For smaller countries like those in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa, the baseline tariff rate will be around 10%. For “bigger economies”, Lutnick said they will either “open themselves up or they’ll pay a fair tariff to America.” The White House is now maintaining that August 1st is a firm deadline. Lutnick also said he expects Trump to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed during Trump’s first term, though that would be a year from now.
📈 President Trump has escalated his demands in trade negotiations with the EU, pushing for a minimum tariff of 15-20% in any deal with the bloc (At least not the initial 30% threat). Trump’s hardened stance aims to test the EU’s pain threshold after weeks of talks on a framework agreement that would have maintained a baseline tariff of 10%. Trump has also been unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs, and would be happy to keep duties on the sector at 25% as planned.
🇪🇺 The EU trade commissioner gave a downbeat assessment of the recent talks in Washington, indicating the EU is in a bind as it approaches the August 1 deadline for Trump’s threatened tariff on EU imports.
🇯🇵 Japan’s top tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said he plans to visit Washington next week to hold further ministerial-level talks with the United States. Tokyo hopes to clinch a deal by an August 1 deadline that will avert President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imports from Japan. Akazawa was visiting Osaka to host a U.S. delegation, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that participated in the U.S. National Day event at World Expo 2025.
🇨🇳 China confirmed it will hold a top-level summit with the European Union in Beijing this week, marking 50 years of diplomatic ties between the two sides. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will visit China on Thursday and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting comes as global trade frictions heat up, with Beijing seeking to secure closer economic and political ties with the EU to hedge against uncertainties in its relations with the United States.
🤝 The EU has also said it sees the need to thaw ties amid global trade uncertainties, with von der Leyen previously telling China’s Premier Li that it was the responsibility of the EU and China to support a strong, reformed trading system.
⚔️ The battle between Trump and Powell continues: President Trump denied a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked him out of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The report suggested Bessent argued that removing Powell before his term is up could spur a negative reaction in the economy and financial markets – as we warned in our reports a few days ago- and push the central bank into uncharted legal and political territory.
📰 However, Trump disputed the Journal story, saying “Nobody had to explain that to me. I know better than anybody what’s good for the Market, and what’s good for the U.S.A.”
💥 Trump is not happy with the WSJ. Donald Trump has filed a $10 billion lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal and others following a report linking him to Jeffrey Epstein. The WSJ article mentioned a birthday card that Trump allegedly sent to Epstein in 2003.
📉 British consumer sentiment had a marked fall for the first time in nearly three years last month, according to a Deloitte survey. Deloitte’s consumer confidence index dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 10.4% in the second quarter, its lowest since the first quarter of 2024. The fall reflects increased worries about job security and income growth prospects, as well as persistent inflation and a high cost of living. Businesses have blamed increased employment taxes and a higher minimum wage for making them more reluctant to hire.
📊 Official data shows Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, its highest since 2021, while inflation reached 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2024.
🏠 Asking prices for newly advertised British houses and apartments recorded their biggest July fall in more than 20 years this month, according to property site Rightmove. Prices for property put on sale during Rightmove’s July period were 1.2% lower than for property marketed a month earlier, the biggest June to July drop since the series began in late 2001.
📉 While sales volumes are still running about 5% above 2024 levels, Rightmove is cutting its forecast for price rises over 2025 as a whole to 2% from 4% due to the high level of competition between sellers. Prices fell most in inner London, down 2.1% monthly, while the biggest rise was in northeast England at 1.2%.
🤝 Germany and the United Kingdom have signed a historic Friendship Treaty, known as the Kensington Treaty: It establishes close cooperation in defence and security, including a mutual assistance clause in the event of a crisis. It facilitates visas for school exchanges and promotes connectivity through a future direct rail link. In the military sphere, it provides for joint export campaigns for equipment such as the Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft and the Boxer armoured vehicle.
📱 The “Magnificent Seven” tech companies, including Alphabet and Tesla, are set to kick off earnings season this week, with high expectations for their performance. The tech sector, led by the megacap companies, is driving much of the recent gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The Magnificent Seven are projected to account for roughly half of the S&P 500’s expected earnings growth of 5.6% in the second quarter, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies are expected to grow just 3.4%.
⚡ Geopolitics:
🇯🇵 The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan’s recent upper house election, gaining support with warnings of a “silent invasion” of immigrants and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending. The party, birthed on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic, denouncing global elites and a globalist agenda on countriess and campaigned on a “Japanese First” platform, breaking into mainstream politics. Sanseito won 14 seats in the 248-seat upper house, adding to the single lawmaker it secured three years ago, though it only has 3 seats in the more powerful lower house. The party has a strong online presence, with its YouTube channel having more followers than any other party in Japan, and plans to continue growing its support to implement its policies.
📜 Former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has released what she describes as “overwhelming evidence” of Barack Obama’s involvement in a coup plot against Donald Trump in 2016. Gabbards accuses intelligence agencies, such as the FBI and CIA, of being weaponized to support the coup efforts. Obama was allegedly briefed by intelligence officials about Hillary Clinton’s plan to link Trump to Russian interference in 2016. Key figures in Obama’s administration, including John Brennan (CIA), James Comey (FBI), and others, were mentioned as being part of the effort. These officials are accused of using their positions to perpetuate the Russia collusion story. Russiagate narrative resulted in a significant betrayal of public trust. The false narrative caused division and undermined democratic processes in the U.S. The claims, if true, could have serious consequences for Obama’s legacy and the Democratic Party.
🔍 During Trump’s first term in office, after two years of investigation, fuelling media speculation, the FBI was asked to conclude its investigation and present the evidence it had found. The FBI determined that no such evidence existed.
📈 Market View:
📊 The markets remain strong, with Mini S&P 500 futures trading close to all-time highs, around the 6,350-point zone. At the moment, Nasdaq 100 futures are in a similar position, trading at 23,290 points. This week, corporate earnings from the tech sector, particularly from the “magnificent seven”, will determine whether the bullish optimism continues in the face of the return of tariffs.
💵 The US dollar has weakened since last Thursday but remains at decent levels, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 98.30 points. This has kept the EUR/USD pair above the 1.16 zone, currently trading at 1.1640 and recovering part of last week’s losses when it approached 1.1550.
📉 European stock markets are not performing as well as their American counterparts. Last Friday saw a negative session, but futures are pointing to a bullish opening today. DAX 40 futures are currently trading at 24,370 points, while Eurostoxx 50 futures are at 5,370 points.
🛢️ The crude oil market has retraced Friday’s gains, where Brent crude surpassed $70.50 per barrel. At the moment, it is trading back at $69.15 per barrel.
🥇 The gold market is strengthening again, with precious metal futures climbing back to $3,375. However, it remains within the range established since April of this year.
💻 After several declines over the weekend, Bitcoin is once again pushing higher, surpassing $119,225. Charts are beginning to show a wedge formation that could trigger another bullish impulse, potentially reaching new all-time highs.
