Market Report.
💣 Ukraine carried out a fresh attack on Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline system on Monday, halting a conduit important for crude supply to parts of central Europe. However, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and U.S. President Trump expressed hope that their White House summit with European leaders could eventually lead to trilateral talks with Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
⚔️ Putin’s offer to Ukraine presents significant challenges for Zelenskyy’s leadership, including a ceasefire, requiring Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, returning only small tracts of land, seeking Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, expecting Western sanctions lifted, barring Ukraine from NATO, and demanding official status for the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church’s freedom in Ukraine.
🎥 There were some interesting moments worth to comment. Trump mentioned yesterday on camera during his meeting with Zelensky that if elections cannot be held during the war, then what would happen in a few years’ time: ‘If we are at war with someone, no more elections?’
🗳️ We have seen everything during the last US electoral processes, and it cannot be ruled out that this similarity established by Trump could be used in the future to interrupt the elections in the US.
🇫🇮 Also interesting was the moment when the President of Finland surprised his European counterparts—who are critical of Trump—by declaring that ‘in the last two weeks, we have made more progress towards ending this war than in the last 3.5 years’. He also added, ‘We found a solution in 1944, I believe we can do it in 2025.’ Finland decided to remind the world of its fight against the Russians, allying itself with the Nazis in a war it ultimately lost. This led Finland to cede territory, pay reparations, and accuse its own leader of war crimes.
🛡️ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is not currently under discussion, but there is a discussion on “Article 5” type security guarantees for Ukraine. However, Article 5 is, in essence, the main reason why a war between Russia and NATO would be possible, as it implies the automatic entry into war of all its members.
🤝 One of Putin’s top negotiators, Kirill Dmitriev, hailed the Washington talks as an “important day of diplomacy”, emphasizing Moscow’s opposition to any short-term ceasefire deal.
💼 Trump, as a businessman, takes advantage of the opportunity to close a new deal. Ukraine would buy around $90 billion in U.S. weapons as part of security guarantees discussed during the White House meeting between President Zelenskyy, President Trump, and European leaders. Zelenskyy said the details of these security guarantees will be worked out within the next 10 days.
🤖 Meanwhile, in the corporate and AI world: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned that the U.S. may be underestimating the complexity and seriousness of China’s progress in artificial intelligence. He believes export controls alone are unlikely to be a reliable solution. Altman is skeptical that restricting the export of certain semiconductors and GPUs will effectively limit China’s AI capabilities, as they may find workarounds or build their own domestic alternatives.
🇨🇳 China’s open-source AI models, such as DeepSeek, have influenced OpenAI’s decision to release its own open-weight language models, as the company wants to ensure its technology remains relevant and accessible.
⚡ Chinese electric car companies are increasing investments in overseas factories as they ramp up competition against Tesla and other global automakers. For the first time, the Chinese electric car supply chain invested more outside the country than at home in 2024, with 74% of the overseas investment going into battery factories. The shift to overseas investment is driven by growing regulatory pushback in host markets like the EU, which is raising barriers to entry and pushing Chinese companies to establish local manufacturing operations.
🏭 While domestic investment in electric car manufacturing in China has declined sharply, overseas investment has narrowly surpassed domestic levels for the first time in 2024. This could be explained by the fact that green policies are much more aggressive in the EU than in China, even though, paradoxically, the EU emits much less CO2 than China.
🚗 Several Chinese automakers, including Great Wall Motor and BYD, have already started production at their first factories in Brazil, while battery supplier Envision has begun production in France. Chinese firms will also have to manage Beijing’s increasing concern over technology leakage, job losses, and industrial hollowing-out, which may result in tighter controls on outbound investment in strategic sectors.
🔄 Interestingly, this is similar to the process that led the US to cease being an industrial power and become an investment power.
📉 According to CME FedWatch, money markets indicate an 83.6% possibility of a quarter-point rate drop at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak today. At last month’s meeting, she was one of two opposing voices in favour of a rate cut.
📊 Market View.
📈 US futures remain static with little movement since the beginning of the week. Mini S&P 500 futures are holding around 6960 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures are at approximately 23755 points, showing slightly more weakness.
💵 The dollar has regained some strength, with the DXY index recovering to 98 points, but remember that our forecast suggests it will struggle to rise further. The EUR/USD is currently pushing back towards the 1.17 area, trading at 1.1675.
📉 In Europe, markets started the week with declines but recovered somewhat during yesterday’s session. DAX 40 futures are trading at 24385 points, while Eurostoxx 50 futures have returned to 5450 points.
🛢️ The crude oil market continues to fluctuate but remains below $68, with Brent currently trading at $66.
💰 The gold market is calm, with futures trading at $3380 per ounce.
📉 Bitcoin continues to experience weakness, currently falling below $115,000. However, these levels may represent significant and attractive entry prices for more adventurous investors.
