Market Report.
🛢️ The price of crude oil continues to rise following last night’s attacks on oil infrastructure. this represents the red line that we said had not been crossed so far and therefore made this situation still reversible. Below, I will provide you with the details.
📅 Data and agenda for today: UK Jan unemployment & earnings at 07:00 (wage/BoE inflation), SNB rate decision at 08:30, and the BoE’s Mar rate decision, minutes & vote at 12:00 (major risk).
🇯🇵 This early morning, The Bank of Japan has joined the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada in keeping interest rates steady, but highlighted mounting price pressure that could accompany the prolonged war.
🔥 Oil prices are firmly above $100 a barrel, while natural gas is up more than 6%. This has left the Japanese yen just below 160 to the dollar, which could trigger intervention, especially after strong comments from Japan’s finance minister.
🎯 The spotlight is on the BOJ governor as investors weigh how he will frame the balance between supporting the shock-hit economy and avoiding falling behind the curve on inflation.
🇪🇺 The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2% at its upcoming policy meeting, but will signal its readiness to raise rates if the Iran war fuels a lasting surge in Eurozone inflation.
📉 The ECB is also expected to tolerate the rise in government bond yields and tightening of credit conditions, as its priority is to prevent second-round effects on wages and inflation expectations.
⚖️ Central banks are walking a tightrope, needing to rein in stubborn inflation without derailing economic growth, similar to the challenges faced in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
🏦 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that he will keep serving as head of the central bank if his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed by the Senate before Powell’s term is up in May. He will serve as “chair pro tem” in this scenario.
🧑⚖️ Not leave his position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until the Department of Justice investigation into him has concluded, even though his term on the Board extends until 2028.
🔎 Powell wants to avoid any appearance that he was pushed off the Board due to political pressure, and is waiting for transparency and finality in the DOJ probe.
⚖️ A federal judge recently blocked grand jury subpoenas issued as part of Powell’s criminal investigation, viewing it as a politically motivated pressure campaign.
📢 The Justice Department plans to appeal the judge’s ruling, with the U.S. Attorney calling it “outrageous” and saying Powell is now “bathed in immunity.”
🇺🇸 Trump continues to take palliative measures that reduce the conflict-induced tension in global markets.
🚢 President Donald Trump has issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a longstanding U.S. shipping law, in an attempt to stabilize oil markets amid the ongoing war with Iran: The Jones Act requires that the transport of goods between U.S. ports must be conducted by U.S. vessels. This has been criticized as a form of protectionism.
🏛️ The White House says the waiver “will allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to U.S. ports for sixty days.”
⚠️ However, experts note the impact of suspending the Jones Act may be limited, as there is a “mismatch” between the type of crude oil the U.S. produces and what its refineries are built to process.
🚨 A coalition of U.S. maritime labor groups has expressed “deep concern” about the Jones Act suspension, arguing it undermines national security and hands critical maritime work to foreign operators, without meaningfully lowering gas prices.
🌍 And now, let’s move on to the latest developments in the Middle East conflict:
☢️ Yesterday, we mentioned that an Iranian nuclear power plant was attacked on Monday night, but the authorities say it didn’t suffer any structural damage.
🏥 Well, The World Health Organization (WHO) is warning that their worst-case planning assumption is for some kind of nuclear-related incident if the current U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continues to escalate.
⚛️ WHO regional director Hanan Balkhy stated that the “worst-case scenario” they are preparing for is a “nuclear incident”, which could include an attack on a nuclear facility or the potential use of a nuclear weapon.
🧠 Analyses note the nuclear risks, with the U.S. having a large nuclear arsenal, Israel widely regarded as the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, and Iran accused of nuclear ambitions.
🎤 Recently, we mentioned that journalists publicly asked Donald Trump whether he believes that Israel could use nuclear weapons against Iran in case of escalation or losing the war. Trump said that “they would never do that.”
🤔 Trump is still considering the possibility of walking away and leaving things as they are: “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian terrorist state and let the countries that use it—we don’t—take charge of the so-called ‘Strait.’ That would get some of our more passive ‘allies’ moving, and fast!”
📰 The Guardian reports that a British national security adviser who took part in the negotiations said: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli agents who dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”
📄 A former official also told The Guardian that: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring any U.S. technical team with them.”
🛰️ U.S. intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard says Iran is not rebuilding its nuclear enrichment capabilities that were destroyed last year.
🛑 The Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump now opposes additional strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, despite having initially supported Israel’s strike on South Pars — the world’s largest natural gas field — as a warning to Tehran over threats to block the Strait of Hormuz.
💥 Missiles struck Ras Laffan in Qatar — the world’s largest LNG plant. Massive fires and extensive damage reported by QatarEnergy. Production halted, and gas and oil prices are surging. Israel angered Qatar by striking a massive gas field it shares with Iran, calling the move “dangerous and irresponsible.”
🚀 AFP reports that Iran has warned it will destroy energy infrastructure if its own facilities are attacked again. Iran’s semi‑official Tasnim News Agency reports that five major Israeli power plants could be targeted in retaliation for alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian electricity facilities. Iran also has issued evacuation orders for all energy facilities along the Gulf in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
🔥 Last night, fire engulfed Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv following a retaliation attack from Iran.
📣 Last night, Trump acknowledged in a statement that Israel had attacked oil infrastructure without the U.S. knowing about it. He emphasized that Qatar had not been involved in this and warned Iran that if it attacked Qatar’s oil infrastructure, the U.S. would destroy Iran’s.
📝 “Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as the South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility.
🚨 NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent party—in this case, Qatar. In which instance, the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field with an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before”.
🎙️ Yesterday we mentioned that the U.S. Director of Counterterrorism, Joe Kent, had resigned from his post. Well, the controversial American journalist Tucker Carlson interviewed him on his famous podcast, where Kent openly criticized Trump’s war. Later, we learned that the FBI would be launching an investigation into him for leaking classified information.
💬 In this regard, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor said on her social media, “So the Trump administration is going to put Joe Kent in jail before anyone on the Epstein list or anyone from Obama’s Russia gate or anyone from Covid tyranny”.
📺 Amid the political turmoil currently engulfing the U.S.—with even members of Trump’s inner circle openly criticizing him—CNN continues to claim that Trump’s approval rating is 100%.
🌎 CNN also claims that since the start of the US war against Iran, the US’s popularity worldwide has fallen by 79%. The only country more unpopular than the United States is Israel. This could cause an additional and significant economic blow due to boycotts of US products and services around the world.
🤝 According to Reuters, China offered Taiwan a “peaceful reunification” arrangement in exchange for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, but the island rejected the proposal and instead chose to purchase more gas from the United States.
Market View.
🛢️ Oil prices continue to surge following last night’s attacks on energy infrastructure. Brent crude (spot) has spiked sharply, climbing above $114 per barrel.
📉 US markets have once again surrendered the confidence gained the previous day.
📉 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have fallen back below 6,800, currently trading around 6,660.
💻 Nasdaq 100 futures have also reversed course, losing the 25,000 level and dropping to approximately 24,570.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened again, reclaiming the 100 mark, pushing EUR/USD back towards the 1.1450 area.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are also under pressure.
📉 The DAX 40 is trading near 23,130, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures have fallen below 5,800, declining to around 5,645.
🥇 Surprisingly, gold has plunged sharply, breaking decisively below $5,000 per ounce and falling to approximately $4,745.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin is experiencing pullbacks and is attempting to hold above the $70,000 level.
