Market Report.
🌊 The US might be trying to smooth things over in Omruz.
🛢️ The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the ongoing conflict.
🚢 Bessent said the U.S. believes tanker traffic through the strait will increase before the U.S. Navy and allies start escorting commercial ships. Some Indian and Chinese ships have already been able to pass through.
🌍 The U.S. wants the world to be “well supplied” with oil, even as the war has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, with global oil supplies expected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day. Bessent said oil prices should fall “much lower” than $80 per barrel after the war is over, though he did not provide a timeline for when the war might end.
📰 NBC News reports that President Donald Trump hopes Israel will stop striking Iranian oil fields, amid concerns that continued attacks could drive up global energy prices. Trump has made it a priority to prevent Iran’s oil infrastructure from being compromised, at least for now.
🎙️ By the way, yesterday, he once again told a journalist in the White House the following in relation with Iran War: “I had an obligation to do this. I didn’t want to—I call it an excursion. I didn’t want to make this journey.”
🗣️ Another interesting comment he made during a press conference was about Iran’s strategy in the war, specifically regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said, “It’s a little unfair, you know. You win a war, but… they have no right to do that.”
📂 Epstein Case is still alive:
⚖️ Departament of Justice admitted 47,635 Epstein files including Trump allegations, were deleted after the war with Iran started. A DOJ spokesperson told outlets that “47,635 files were offline for further review and should be ready for re‑production by the end of the week.”
🛑 The department has consistently stated that the files were removed from the public database to address redaction and victim‑privacy issues and has denied permanently deleting records.
🇷🇺 Russia is one of the primary winners in this war, for now.
💰 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. will allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil that is already at sea, in order to temporarily boost global supply availability.
🌊 There are around 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil at sea across 30 locations worldwide, with about 30 Russian tankers in Asian waters carrying 19 million barrels of crude and 310,000 tons of refined products.
🇮🇳 The U.S. has also issued India a 30-day waiver to allow it to buy Russian oil at sea to build reserves and cushion against the oil shock. This move is part of the broader efforts by the U.S. and the 32-nation IEA to release 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to combat high oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.
⚠️ The Trump administration is also taking steps like waiving a century-old law to allow quicker domestic supply movements, as the IEA warns this is one of the worst energy shocks the world has ever faced.
🛢️ US’s oil companies could also benefit from this:
💵 Financial Times analysis estimated that, if current Gulf war–driven price levels persist, US oil producers could gain about 63 billion dollars in extra cash flow in 2026.
🏭 The main winners are US shale and other domestic producers with little direct exposure to the Middle East, who enjoy higher global prices without suffering production outages.
📈 Using modelling from Rystad Energy, FT says that if crude averages around 100 dollars a barrel this year, US producers would reap roughly 63.4 billion dollars in additional revenue/cash flow versus pre‑war expectations.
💱 End of the petro-dollar?
🇮🇷 According to some sources, Iran has allowed the oil tanker ‘Karachi’ to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after paying in Chinese yuan.
🇵🇰 Pakistani outlet Aaj News reports that Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed said on X that Iran allowed Pakistan’s oil tanker Karachi to pass Hormuz “after the shipment was paid in Chinese currency, Yuan,” presenting it as his claim about shifting regional dynamics.
🇷🇺 On Russian involvement in the war in Iran:
🎤 Journalist Steve Sedgwick asked the Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin: “Is Russia providing intelligence to Iran?” The ambassador replied: “Ukraine has just bombed civilians in Russia using British Storm Shadow missiles and U.S. intelligence.”
🇩🇪 Germany’s right-wing is strongly critical of Trump and his war in Iran.
🗳️ The co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Tino Chrupalla, has strongly criticized the United States and Israel for the war against Iran, warning that it could lead to a third world war.
😔 Chrupalla said he is “extremely disappointed” in former President Trump, accusing him of breaking his campaign promises by launching the war against Iran. He said 70% of Americans reject this war.
🤝 Chrupalla believes the U.S. was “dragged into this war by Israel” and that there were serious negotiations where Oman tried to mediate a peace agreement, but Israel and the U.S. started bombing Iran on the same day.
⚰️ He warned that the conflict has already resulted in thousands of deaths and could potentially lead to millions of casualties in a worst-case scenario. Chrupalla also said another refugee crisis could ensue, not just from Iran but also from Lebanon.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 The U.S. has postponed the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.
📅 Top Trump administration officials had suggested the Iran war could disrupt plans for the high-profile summit in China. Treasury Secretary Bessent later said any rescheduling would be for logistical reasons, not because Trump demanded China police the Strait of Hormuz.
✈️ President Trump said the U.S. has asked to delay his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing by “a month or so” due to the ongoing war with Iran. “Because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel.” He said.
🏛️ Trump was originally expected to travel to China at the end of March for the meeting with Xi. But he said he wants to stay in the U.S. to manage the war with Iran.
🔎 Trump insisted the proposed delay is solely due to him needing to be in the U.S. during the war, and there are “no tricks” involved. He said he is looking forward to meeting with Xi, with whom he has a good relationship.
⚔️ President Trump has stated that the war “won’t be over this week” and that the military campaign against Iran is continuing in full force. He claims the U.S. has struck over 7,000 targets in Iran and severely degraded their military capabilities.
🇮🇷 Iran has rejected reports of any diplomatic contacts with the U.S., calling them “false.” However, there are reports of some communication between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and U.S. envoy Witkoff.
🚢 Trump is pressing for a multinational naval coalition to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has been disrupting. However, U.S. allies in Europe have been reluctant to join such an effort.
👤 There is speculation about the health and leadership of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with unconfirmed reports about his personal life and ability to lead. Some sources claim that he could be in a coma, except that the US declared that he had been eliminated upon his appointment.
🇮🇱 The most talked-about rumor at the moment is about Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel.
📹 Netanyahu’s last widely noted public appearance appears to date to early March. Some recent videos posted on his social media accounts seem to be pre-recorded statements against neutral backgrounds or simply AI videos.
🪑 Netanyahu’s absence from the last two security cabinet meeting chaired by the Foreign Minister has also raised questions, though wartime meetings are often held in secrecy.
🗳️ The leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, has presented a motion of no confidence against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite his party Yesh Atid recently stating they would not vote on no-confidence motions while the offensive against Iran launched with the United States is ongoing.
⚖️ Lapid said he did not want to present the no-confidence motion today, but felt he had no other choice, as the government coalition is pushing controversial legislation unrelated to the war effort and transferring millions of shekels from the government to the ultra-Orthodox community in the midst of an armed conflict.
☢️ Nuclear war?
📚 John Mearsheimer, an influential American international relations theorist, argues that Israel sees Iran as an existential threat, and if they cannot defeat them in a conventional warfare, they may decide to use nuclear weapons.
🎙️ In this regard, a reporter asked Trump yesterday about this possibility. Trump replied, “Israel would never do that; Israel would never do that.” He added that another theory is that we could strike them so hard that it would take them 10 years to rebuild to their current level (Iran).
🇱🇧 Israeli plans to invade Lebanon?
🌍 The leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement Monday that a large-scale Israeli ground operation in Lebanon “must be averted”.
💥 At the time of the statement, Israel had announced “limited” ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon while already conducting extensive airstrikes, which had displaced more than a million people and caused mounting civilian casualties.
🏦 Central banks: will rates rise this week?
🇦🇺 The Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank to hike interest rates since the start of the Iran conflict, raising rates by 25 basis points. However, the close vote with four dissents sent the Australian dollar lower.
🏛️ Other major central banks like the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold this week as they assess the global economic impact of the energy price shock. The BIS has urged policymakers not to rush reactions to the supply-driven price spike.
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is accelerating toward the bank’s 2% target, though the yen weakened as analysts expect a higher bar for currency intervention given the rising oil prices.
Market View.
📈 US futures are showing a modest recovery following early reports that certain vessels are being allowed to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a more diplomatic posture from both sides in the conflict.
📊 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have risen to around 6,725, while Nasdaq 100 futures have moved towards the 24,800 area.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) eased yesterday, slipping below the 100 mark and currently trading near 99.90. This provided some relief to EUR/USD, which climbed towards 1.1500, although the pair now appears to be struggling to hold that level.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures are stabilising around 23,500, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are holding above 5,700.
🛢️ Crude oil continues to edge higher, with spot Brent gradually approaching $104 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures have moved back slightly above the $5,000 level, currently trading at around $5,027 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin is pulling back after reaching $76,000 in recent hours, broadly in line with our expectations of renewed bullish momentum followed by consolidation.
