Market Report.
✅ It ends one of the risk factors that kept the markets in suspense.
🏛️ The House passed a temporary funding bill to end the 6-week clash between President Trump and congressional Democrats that disrupted flights and delayed food aid. The shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, and fully restarting the federal bureaucracy could still take days.
📉 The shutdown has weighed on the U.S. economy, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 1.5 percentage point reduction in real GDP growth in the current quarter. The shutdown has caused lingering pain, including flight cancellations, delays in food stamp benefits for 42 million Americans, and delays in key economic data releases.
💼 September’s jobs report likely to be one of the first catch-up indicators released. However, White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdown. The shutdown is ending with the party seeking policy wins (Democrats) backing down in the face of public pressure, as has happened in past shutdown clashes.
🇬🇧 The UK’s GDP is contracting in monthly values, falling to -0.1% against an expected growth rate of 0%. Its quarterly figures were 0.1% against an expected 0.2%. The annualized rate remains at a growth of 1.3% by 2025.
💷 UK Treasury officials believe Chancellor Rachel Reeves should get billions of pounds of extra room in her upcoming budget, thanks to her plan to cut household bills and bring down inflation. The Treasury has asked the government’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), to take into account Reeves’ measures on energy bills, rail fares, and other regulated prices in its budget forecast. The Treasury’s argument is that lower inflation will mean lower interest rates and therefore lower borrowing costs on the government’s substantial debt.
📈 If the OBR recognizes the lower borrowing costs, it could give Reeves an extra £6 billion ($7.9 billion) in her budget. Reeves needs every penny she can get to fill a budget hole of up to £35 billion caused by an anticipated growth downgrade, higher borrowing costs, and policy U-turns.
🏦 Reeves has pledged to tackle regulated prices to bring down inflation, which remains higher in the UK than any other G7 economy.
🏴 Scotland has been assigned its first credit ratings by S&P Global and Moody’s, a critical step towards the country’s debut bond sale as it seeks to attract investors: Moody’s assigned Scotland an Aa3 rating, incorporating a one-notch uplift based on its assessment of a very high likelihood of extraordinary support from the UK government. The credit ratings are the same as that of the UK, as Scotland remains within the United Kingdom.
📊 Scotland’s finances have deteriorated, with a budget deficit of 8.3% of GDP compared to 7.3% a year earlier, lagging the UK’s 2.5% deficit.
⚠️ However, both agencies noted that Scottish independence could exert downward pressure on the ratings by introducing heightened uncertainty about the institutional framework. Scotland currently borrows from the UK’s National Loans Fund, but is looking to sell its own “kilt” bonds to raise money and develop relationships with lenders and ratings agencies.
🇪🇺 The European Union is set to propose a plan to the US that would implement the next phase of the trade agreement the two sides reached this summer: The plan would focus on 5 key areas: S&P gave Scotland an AA rating with a stable outlook, citing its devolved arrangements with the UK government, strong economy, and financial prudence.
📜 Tariffs and market access – The EU is seeking lower tariff rates for additional goods like wines and spirits. Addressing standards, digital trade, technical barriers, and other trade grievances through dialogue. Cooperation on steel and aluminum, including a quota system to allow lower tariffs on a certain amount of exports. Establishing an economic security working group to address issues like investment screening, export controls, procurement, and critical raw materials. Covering and monitoring the strategic purchases and investments the EU pledged to make in LNG and chips as part of the previous deal.
🤝 The proposed action plan has not yet been shared with the US, but EU envoys are being briefed on the plans this week.
🇨🇭 Top trade negotiators from Switzerland are headed to Washington to complete negotiations on a trade deal with the US that would lower the 39% tariff rate on Swiss goods: Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin and State Secretary Helene Budliger Artieda are traveling to Washington for additional talks.
🍫 Switzerland is hopeful it can finalize an agreement to lower the US tariff on its goods, including watches and chocolate, from the current 39% down to 15%. This would represent a major victory for the Swiss government, as the 39% rate is currently the highest the US has imposed on a developed nation.
💬 President Trump confirmed his administration is “working on a deal to get their tariffs a little bit lower”, though he did not specify a 15% rate. Discussions have also included the possibility of investments by Swiss firms in the US gold-refining industry as part of efforts to persuade the Trump administration to lower the import tariffs.
💴 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the central bank is aiming for “moderate inflation” that is supported by sustainable wage gains, as part of Japan’s ongoing efforts to normalize monetary policy. Ueda has emphasized that the BOJ’s inflation target will only be considered achieved if price rises are accompanied by consistent wage increases, indicating a shift towards demand-driven inflation. This policy stance may influence the pace and strategy of BOJ interest rate moves and asset purchases going forward.
🗾 Japan’s core inflation was at 2.9% in September 2025, staying above target, but real wage growth has lagged, leaving household purchasing power under pressure and making the BOJ cautious about further policy tightening. The BOJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.5% since January, despite above-target inflation, as Ueda cited the need for more evidence of sustained wage growth before raising interest rates further. Japan’s Nikkei index and the broader Topix index climbed yesterday.
Geopolitics.
📂 The release of over 20,000 pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein has caused significant turmoil within the Trump administration. The documents mention Donald Trump numerous times and have fueled bipartisan efforts in Congress to force transparency regarding Epstein’s contacts and activities.
🏛️ The White House has strongly denied any wrongdoing, framing the document release as a politically-motivated smear campaign. High-level Trump administration officials, including the Attorney General and FBI Director, have held emergency meetings to discuss the administration’s strategy in responding to the document release and the House’s push for full disclosure.
📧 Some of the revealed emails are certainly strange. There are short emails that seem to lack more context than exonerating Democratic leaders like Bill Clinton. “Clinton was never in the island”. At the same time, they repeatedly mention Donal rump. However, the first time we heard about Epstein’s island was precisely when Trump years ago publicly suggested that Bill Clinton was involved.
📰 The Spectator, has published a polemic article under the title: The scandal that could bring down Vlodomyr Zelensky. In this article, explains that, Nabu (Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau) linked businessman Timur Mindich to lavish assets, including a solid-gold toilet and cupboards full of €200 notes. Mindich is prominent in real estate, fertilisers, banking, diamond trading, and co-owns Zelensky’s Kvartal 95 production company.
🔍 Nabu’s 15-month probe targets alleged high-level corruption involving a $100m kickback scheme tied to contractors building defenses for energy infrastructure; state firms including Energoatom implicated. Suspects include Mindich and former energy and justice minister Herman Halushchenko (suspended); 70 searches have been carried out; several suspects fled Ukraine before raids.
🎧 Nabu seized over 1,000 hours of audio recordings of Mindich; partial clips were publicized as a warning to elites.
🤝 Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy implored European Union allies to overcome their divisions and allow the use of frozen Russian assets to provide critical funding for Ukraine. The EU has postponed a decision on tapping Russian state assets to provide €140 billion in loans to Ukraine, which needs new funding by early next year.
💶 As of November 2025, the European Union (EU) and its member states have mobilized and disbursed an estimated €168.9 billion (about $180+ billion) in total aid to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Market View.
📈 The old US economy of the Dow Jones rises above the NASDAQ. Industry, banking and the health sector rise in the Dow Jones index, rising more solidly and diversified than the powerful technological sector, as if two economies were involved.
📊 S&P 500 futures remain at similar levels to yesterday morning, trading near 6,900 points and currently at 6,882. Nasdaq 100 futures also continue to move sideways since Monday, staying below 25,800 and currently trading at 25,667. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones 30 has broken record highs, surpassing 48,350 points in cash trading.
💵 The dollar index has finally slipped below 99.50, falling to 99.30. With the government reopening and the expected release of employment data likely to show labour market weakness, markets are anticipating rate cuts in December. This has driven a strong rebound in pairs such as EUR/USD, which has surged above 1.16 and is now trading at 1.1620.
🇪🇺 European equities have also recovered part of their recent losses, with DAX 40 futures reaching and surpassing 24,500 points. EuroStoxx 50 futures have hit new highs above 5,800.
🛢️ Crude prices have taken a sharp turn lower, with Brent crude falling from $65 to $62.60 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures have strengthened further, currently reaching $4,230 per ounce.
💻 Bitcoin found support above $100,000 during yesterday’s session and has rebounded in recent hours, now trading above $103,440.
