📰 Macro-News round-up.
#MarketNews
💬 Yesterday, Raphael Bostic of the Fed made a hawkish remark, speculating that the Fed will take a break following just one rate hike in the current quarter. While the US dollar DXY did not respond to these words by rising in value, US bonds did react, increasing their yields, suggesting a sentiment of higher rates in the longer term. 10Y bond yields increased by 3.3bp to 4.213%, while 2Y yields increased by 7bp.
📊 The most relevant data today was the release of the PMI indices. The first to come out were the Asian ones: Japan presented a PMI services index above expectations at 52.9. China, on the other hand, had a services PMI of 52.5 below expectations. And finally, from the Asian side, Hong Kong presented a manufacturing PMI of 49.7, indicating economic contraction.
🌍 Europe: PMIs in Europe have come in better than expected overall, but most countries still score below 50, indicating economic contraction. Sweden, Spain and the UK are the only ones to score above 50.
📉 Compared to the previous month, industrial production in France fell by 1.10% in January 2024, above market estimates of a 0.1% decline. In contrast, there was a 0.4% growth the month before.
💹 The PPIs, released a few minutes ago, again show significant declines. In January, PPIs fell by -0.9%, making the annual rate -8.6%. This would mean that inflation is not correcting, but could even be plummeting, reaching in a few months a deflationary situation, which could lead to a severe economic recession.
🇯🇵 According to data released today, core inflation in Japan’s capital reaccelerated in February above the central bank’s target as the impacts of government fuel subsidies subsided. This was an indication that the criteria were being met for the end of negative interest rates. The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a leading predictor of national statistics, increased 2.5% in February over the previous year, in line with market expectations.
💰 This morning, gold is trading above $2,100/oz, having touched almost all-time highs yesterday.
📅 There are two main reasons that are boosting gold, the first of which, the economic one, shows a bullish one favored by the intention to cut interest rates and, therefore, lower yields on safe-haven US assets, Treasury bonds, and bank deposits. The second reason is geopolitical, with former Russian President Medvedev claiming that US-Russian relations are in a worse state than during the missile crisis of the 1960s when the world was on the brink of nuclear conflict. This, coupled with the rift between the US and Israel and rising tensions in the Middle East, suggests that the rise in the price of gold may be a sign that the outlook is worse in the days ahead.
📆 Finally, remember that this week will have strong macroeconomic events. Here is a reminder of the most relevant data to be released.
Wednesday:
- Australia: Q4 2023.
- Germany: Trade Balance.
- UK: Construction Index PMI.
- EE.UU: ADP Nonfarm Employment Changes & Powell Speaks. JOBS opening report.
- Canada: Interest Rate Decision.
Thursday: - China: Trade Balance.
- UK: House price Index.
- Germany: Factory Orders.
- EU: Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Facility and Monetary Policy statement. Lagarde Speaks.
- EE.UU: Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Powell Speaks.
Friday:
- Germany: Industrial production, PPI.
- EU: GDP Q4.
- EE.UU: Earning per Hour, NFP, Unemployment Rate.
Saturday:
- China: CPI & PPI.
